Tips for Tikay

[Nakor]

Where Mullins has a horse declared for two races when will I know which he is going to run (Blazer)?
Is the exchange NRNB?  Or is it from 2 weeks out?

[Tonibell]

The exchange is only ever nrnb from the 24-hour declarations (so the night before). You'll know where WPM's horses are going when he does (so probably the night before). Other trainers will be waiting to see where his go before declaring theirs. Welcome to the four-day festival with too many races too much alike.

Edited to say from this year a horse can't run in a handicap if it is already declared in another race but as they are still 24-hour decs this only affects races the following day. Easy. http://www.sportinglife.com/racing/news/article/465/10152843/cheltenham-and-bha-announce-changes-to-handicaps-at-cheltenham-festival

[BigAdz]

i saw very late last night a quote from Tony Mullins that Vautour was going to the ryanar

i went to oc and saw that prices for him in this vary from 4/6 to 9/2

http://www.oddschecker.com/cheltenham-festival/ryanair-chase/winner

are we talkng stale prices here, or is there still uncertainty as to which race he runs in?

if, if we knew he was a sure thng to run in the ryanair, would we be backng hm at 7/2+?

thanks

I would want to hear that from Willie Mullins, rather than his brother, but a speculative bet at 4-1/9-2, whilst it may be dead on the day, could also look like genius if he goes Ryanair.

I wonder, what are peoples thoughts about the first couple of days having an impact on the decision? EG, if Min/Annie/Vroom all get beat, would WM/ Richy Rich decide they just want to get a winner on the board? In which case Vautour would surely go Ryanair then?

I don't know.  If we can get evens with a run, then if we take the 9/2 we have to believe that the Ryanair is the most likely route.  I read it that the Gold Cup is the most likely race, so evens with a run is better than 9/2 taking your chances.   You would only correctly take the 9/2 if you believed that the chance of him running in the Ryanair was greater than 45%.

Its an interesting one.

For years I have kidded myself that Paddy P, being Irish has the best inside info, as to where Willie will run em by the prices they set out, but hindsight has taught me they know no more than anyone else!

I have had a few bob on the Tote, as I have blown enough ante cash on the "machine" already, a few more at speculative odds wont be noticed, but may cheer me up if it happens.

Defo not one to follow me in with though, I agree, as Willie does seem determined to go for Gold.

[Mark_Porter]

Aston Villa have not won a corner in the Premier League for 210 minutes.

http://www.oddschecker.com/football/english/premier-league/aston-villa-v-everton/most-corners

http://www.oddschecker.com/football/english/premier-league/aston-villa-v-everton/total-home-corners

[tikay]

I don't know if it helps these Cheltenham discussions, & I'm not spamming, but I believe Scuy are now NRNB on all Cheltenham stuff. Maybe others & betters are, too, but I thought it worth mentioning.

[NoCardDSC]

Aston Villa have not won a corner in the Premier League for 210 minutes.

http://www.oddschecker.com/football/english/premier-league/aston-villa-v-everton/most-corners

http://www.oddschecker.com/football/english/premier-league/aston-villa-v-everton/total-home-corners

will take some of that at 4/6

[exstream]

Yep I've followed at 4/6
Lets gooo

[TightEnd]

Nico Rosberg fastest in Barcelona as Mercedes finally shows F1 qualifying pace http://goo.gl/fb/dUR9tL

[Chompy]

Have backed Bury but they're not in great shape either.

This from a forum...

"You'll beat us. I could bet my life on it.

A bit of background info on the turmoil surrounding the club I love...

We have a history of ending clubs bad runs (see Grimsby, Stockport, Torquay, Shrewsbury etc etc). We also have what I beleive and many of our fanbase (80% of which are against the manager) is the worst manager in the football league.

A recent example of his tactical brainwaves was putting a defensive midfielder on at Wigan for a striker, leaving us with one up front whilst 3-0 down at .

We have been awful since we last beat you 3-2, and it's heartbreaking to see how rapidly we have regressed since we last played you, we used to play nice football on the floor, now we hoof it up to the useless Tom Pope. If you play more than 1 defender at the back that's Bury not scoring.

There is massive unrest in the fanbase at Gigg Lane with 80% wanting Flitcroft out a recent poll suggested. Our chairman loves the guy and often states that he will never sack him.

We also have a number of key players out through injuries or falling outs (see Chris Eagles). There will be no Leon Clarke, Nathan Cameron or Kelvin Etuhu.

We will play a centre mid (Brown) at centre back who has contributed to 12 goals being conceded in the last 3 away games.

Anyway, we are utterly awful and lead by a Baffoon manager. ENJOY YOUR WIN!"


Poshies have Bozzy and Fozzy back after a suspension and an injury. Those two will make a huge difference, but things have gone badly wrong. Apparently the gaffer is falling out with everyone. Darragh came back last weekend to try and smooth things over. Allegedly.

[Tal]

Leicester 2/1
Tottenham 9/4
Arsenal 11/4
Man City 6/1

105% book. Is there any value in it? You'd think City would be a healthy loser in the book so the bookies are unlikely to be pricing them generously.

Choral and Scuy keep saying they'll be selling the silver if Leicester win the league. Same principle now?

So, if the above is all correct, do we press on Arsenal...



or lump on the Lily Whites?

[BigAdz]

At least us Gooners have taken nearly twenty years to change our tune.

 

[horseplayer]

Getting a bit sick of the bookies pr spiel about how much Leicester winning the league will cost them, the more they repeat it the less i believe it.

[BigAdz]

Getting a bit sick of the bookies pr spiel about how much Leicester winning the league will cost them, the more they repeat it the less i believe it.

I suspect the shop managers in Leicester may be concerned about their Xmas bonus tbf. But yes, beyond that, I doubt its a disaster.

[TightEnd]

i gather from speaking to a few that it is a loser but the offsets

a) every cross-division pre-season acca goes down
b) next season everyone sticks their fiver on watford/westham/southampton/bournemouth/whoever is 5000-1 and looks a good price and they all lose
c) great PR for the industry to acquire new customers

are more important

two told me that the biggest loser in their book from back in august was west ham to win the PL

[arbboy]

One post allowed even though i promised Adz i would never post again. 

Everton nearly 4/6 away at Villa.  Stoke evens at HOME to villa at the weekend.  No value in the EPL though.  Price is always right.  Anyone who says the EPL markets are always right please talk me through this one in large mathematical detail please.  The EPL markets are full of mug cash and the easiest market in soccer to beat.

These prices make Everton close to a 4/9 shot to beat stoke at home.