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Author Topic: Tips for Tikay  (Read 16399476 times)
TightEnd
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« Reply #115875 on: April 07, 2016, 03:21:02 PM »

Apples Jade 14/1 for the 2017 champion.
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« Reply #115876 on: April 07, 2016, 03:24:51 PM »

Apples Jade 14/1 for the 2017 champion.

It's very tough for 4-y-o hurdlers when they step up the following season.
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« Reply #115877 on: April 07, 2016, 03:42:13 PM »

National Over rounds

2015    164.9

2014    150.8

2013    147.8

2012    152.2

2011    154.7

I'm learning plenty on this thread & muddle through when I can but I need to ask - What's that mean?


The "over-round" is the bookmakers profit as a %age.

So 164 means a theoretical profit of 64% on a perfectly balanced book (ie every horse backed to take out the same amount).

The key point Rod is never just put the horse's name on a big race betting slip as you will get the starting price (SP) which will be the worst odds possible*, always take an early price, preferably online.

*(ceteris paribus)


Cheers guys, the thread's an education (at some point I'll have worked out all the nicknames for the online bookies as well Cheesy)
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« Reply #115878 on: April 07, 2016, 03:51:32 PM »

What a  superb animal
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« Reply #115879 on: April 07, 2016, 03:52:04 PM »

Wow. I wanted CC beat, but I think based on that he would have won the GC.

Another day, another place, but that was impressive enough to convince me
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« Reply #115880 on: April 07, 2016, 03:53:59 PM »

Wow. I wanted CC beat, but I think based on that he would have won the GC.

Another day, another place, but that was impressive enough to convince me

Not a chance he would have won at Cheltenham, didn't you listen to anything Aaron had to say  Cheesy

Yeah, his record at Aintree nothing like Cheltenham.
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« Reply #115881 on: April 07, 2016, 03:56:19 PM »

Even more amazing really were his achievements ie winning the bumper when not able to breathe properly
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« Reply #115882 on: April 07, 2016, 03:59:58 PM »

National Over rounds

2015    164.9

2014    150.8

2013    147.8

2012    152.2

2011    154.7

I'm learning plenty on this thread & muddle through when I can but I need to ask - What's that mean?


The "over-round" is the bookmakers profit as a %age.

So 164 means a theoretical profit of 64% on a perfectly balanced book (ie every horse backed to take out the same amount).

The key point Rod is never just put the horse's name on a big race betting slip as you will get the starting price (SP) which will be the worst odds possible*, always take an early price, preferably online.

*(ceteris paribus)


Cheers guys, the thread's an education (at some point I'll have worked out all the nicknames for the online bookies as well Cheesy)


The overround saga from last year was discussed by some idiot or other at the time:

http://blondepoker.com/forum/index.php?topic=65324.0

(Contains nostalgia, women in bikinis, mild grumpage and a former TV poker commentator)
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« Reply #115883 on: April 07, 2016, 04:06:07 PM »

NB. I clearly know more than Willie, Dom Poli ran a race that suggested the National would have been a better option..... Wink
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« Reply #115884 on: April 07, 2016, 04:08:25 PM »

NB. I clearly know more than Willie, Dom Poli ran a race that suggested the National would have been a better option..... Wink

Grin


Hope he smashes Don Cossack to pieces at Punchestown Smiley
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arbboy
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« Reply #115885 on: April 07, 2016, 04:19:06 PM »

Just for clarification on the sp % maths.  161% book doesn't give a 61% profit margin for bookmakers.  It assumes for every £161 invested (turnover) (perfectly balanced across all runners for assumption - never happens in reality) the bookmaker will pay out £100 of that and keep £61 for themselves (profit).  Their profit margin therefore is 61/161 = 38% profit on turnover.
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« Reply #115886 on: April 07, 2016, 05:08:53 PM »

Should have kept Pendleton on PDP!
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« Reply #115887 on: April 07, 2016, 05:23:15 PM »

All mid/wide both tracks Romf and Cray on bags this afternoon.  Jolly fest at both tracks.  Fav backers in clover today across horses and dogs.
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« Reply #115888 on: April 07, 2016, 05:39:22 PM »

It looks like there has been a bit of cash for Minella Present.  I managed to nab some 7's.
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« Reply #115889 on: April 07, 2016, 05:46:40 PM »

That is why I seldom punt horses.   Did it manage to beat anything home?
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