Tips for Tikay

[Chompy]

Such an incred offer from 365. Fodds bookies get a lot of stick on here, so credit where it's due and all that.

[doubleup]

10.5-1 the field on the machine for the National...

Many Clpouds is 5.6 a place on Betfair

interesting, no?

Extraordinary. Noticed it last night and have no idea why. He's not your typical all-or-nothing horse.

He's 10-1 to win, 9-2 to finish in the four and 7-4 to finish in the six. The price to finish in the four seems ool to me. Some were predicting he'd be this price to win the thing!

Not sure how it can be exploited though. Guess the obvious way would just to be to take the 5.6 to finish in the four.

Why would a liquid market with £1m matched be significantly wrong?

[Doobs]

now that we can actually consider the masters outright without being lambasted

its 12/1 the field bar jordan and rory paying 3 places

and of course a hugely competitive heat for the places, and the top two may not win. Possibly

http://www.oddschecker.com/golf/the-masters/winner

if you've watched thurs/fri, in the field without the top two who have you thought might be value at current prices?

(possibly one for before the final round, but interested anyway)

I don't know why anyone would lambast you for that.  Really not sure why we didn't have any bets in the e/w market with all that value (I was away FWIW).  Of these Matsuyama at 18/1 appeals.  Quarter first 3 wouldn't normally appeal, but with the first 2 so short, maybe that is ok too? 

[Doobs]

10.5-1 the field on the machine for the National...

Many Clpouds is 5.6 a place on Betfair

interesting, no?

Extraordinary. Noticed it last night and have no idea why. He's not your typical all-or-nothing horse.

He's 10-1 to win, 9-2 to finish in the four and 7-4 to finish in the six. The price to finish in the four seems ool to me. Some were predicting he'd be this price to win the thing!

Not sure how it can be exploited though. Guess the obvious way would just to be to take the 5.6 to finish in the four.

Why would a liquid market with £1m matched be significantly wrong?

It just is.  It is the equivalent of the correct price on Many Clouds to be about 33/1 to be each of 2nd, 3rd or 4th.  That just must be wrong.  Not so obvious, but I took 8.8 on Silvianico Conte too. 

[arbboy]

bet365 offer is another piece of marketing genius.  Gives shrewd punters a chance to get their bets on and move traffic for IT purposes away from the peak times to avoid any potential crash at 5pm Saturday.  On top of that thousands of punters won't read the T&C's and place £250 of bets after midday today and not get any refund but 365 get their business.

[Doobs]

bet365 offer is another piece of marketing genius.  Gives shrewd punters a chance to get their bets on and move traffic for IT purposes away from the peak times to avoid any potential crash at 5pm Saturday.  On top of that thousands of punters won't read the T&C's and place £250 of bets after midday today and not get any refund but 365 get their business.

Obviously if ShyBet did this, they would be blithering idiots?

[Chompy]

10.5-1 the field on the machine for the National...

Many Clpouds is 5.6 a place on Betfair

interesting, no?

Extraordinary. Noticed it last night and have no idea why. He's not your typical all-or-nothing horse.

He's 10-1 to win, 9-2 to finish in the four and 7-4 to finish in the six. The price to finish in the four seems ool to me. Some were predicting he'd be this price to win the thing!

Not sure how it can be exploited though. Guess the obvious way would just to be to take the 5.6 to finish in the four.

Why would a liquid market with £1m matched be significantly wrong?

Normally I'd be with you on that. But how can half the odds four places about a big-race favourite ever be right?

Maybe for something like a Dawn Approach in the Derby it would make sense, but not for a previous National winner in the National.

[arbboy]

10.5-1 the field on the machine for the National...

Many Clpouds is 5.6 a place on Betfair

interesting, no?

Extraordinary. Noticed it last night and have no idea why. He's not your typical all-or-nothing horse.

He's 10-1 to win, 9-2 to finish in the four and 7-4 to finish in the six. The price to finish in the four seems ool to me. Some were predicting he'd be this price to win the thing!

Not sure how it can be exploited though. Guess the obvious way would just to be to take the 5.6 to finish in the four.

Why would a liquid market with £1m matched be significantly wrong?

Normally I'd be with you on that. But how can half the odds four places about a big-race favourite ever be right?

Maybe for something like a Dawn Approach in the Derby it would make sense, but not for a previous National winner in the National.

Sorry to sound like an old record but the more mug cash there is in a market (today is the mug day of all days) the more likely a market is out of equilibrium.  Betfair can be wrong and is 'wrong' all the time.  How do people make a living on betfair if it is always 'right'?

[TightEnd]

Tomorrow is April 10th

County Championship cricket starts

the scene today at one of the venues, Chelmsford, is as follows

Click to see full-size image.

three games per division this week are

Surrey 5/4 at Notts
Warwicks 8/13 at Hampshire
Somerset 6/5 at Durham

Gloucs 7/4 at Essex
Sussex 8/15 at Northants
Kent 6/5 at Worcester

I have quoted away team prices for a reason, because the ECB in their wisdom introduced a very important change to the playing conditions this year in an attempt to try to ensure better pitches

i wrote the following yesterday

"For the County Championship, the there will not be a mandatory toss for games. The away captain will decide whether to bowl or not, as the ECB attempts to ensure decent pitches (and long term promote spin bowling).

"The visiting captain will be offered the opportunity of bowling first. If he declines, the toss will take place as normal. But if he accepts, there will be no toss."

The home team cannot now risk preparing bowler friendly pitches. In addition to the risk of being stuck in by an away captain there are now swingeing penalties for preparing unfit pitches including forfeitng games. All this points to good batting pitches and long seasons ahead for bowling county Pro"

Now thats all well and fine in june and july but on the 10th April pitches are going to be spicy anyway because of overhead conditions. Fresh pitches at the start of the season, difficult batting conditions

A lot of away captains tomorrow are going to shake hands and say "we will have a bowl" and there is nothing the home team can do about it. Once pitches firm up, the weather is better etc later in the season the new rule is going to work as intended but in the early months of the season its not really going to work as intended 

This introduces quite a skew to potential results early season in favour of away sides assuming they take advantage of the conditions

Some tomorrow, Sussex (strong favourites to win div 2) and warwicks (away at relegation favourites Hampshire) are already short odds on. nothing to go at

but for example somerset travel to durham (its tough to bat there in august, let alone April) at odds against. Surrey are odds against at Notts, and it swings a lot at trent bridge if the overheads are right

in div 2 chelmsford was a seamers paradise last year (essex would typically prepare something that looked like a vietnamese rice paddy and then pray to the gods of eastern england that they won the toss), and gloucs are odds against. Worcester's new road spends the winter underwater, the ground is right by the river and race-course. it normally dries out by mid season but batting there first in april? no thanks

So we have four away dogs who are going to have a bias in their favour, by virtue of there being no toss.

I think you could do worse than consider the following, with a filter of only wanting away dogs for value in april, and see if the impact of the away side having the choice to bowl first is the skew i think it might be

Surrey 5/4 at Notts
Somerset 6/5 at Durham
Gloucs 7/4 at Essex
Kent 6/5 at Worcester

ideal for small stakes accas (only small stakes, as weather affected draws have to be a possibility)

[nirvana]

bet365 offer is another piece of marketing genius.  Gives shrewd punters a chance to get their bets on and move traffic for IT purposes away from the peak times to avoid any potential crash at 5pm Saturday.  On top of that thousands of punters won't read the T&C's and place £250 of bets after midday today and not get any refund but 365 get their business.

Got heavily limited..i'm sooo shrewd

[Karabiner]

10.5-1 the field on the machine for the National...

Many Clpouds is 5.6 a place on Betfair

interesting, no?

Extraordinary. Noticed it last night and have no idea why. He's not your typical all-or-nothing horse.

He's 10-1 to win, 9-2 to finish in the four and 7-4 to finish in the six. The price to finish in the four seems ool to me. Some were predicting he'd be this price to win the thing!

Not sure how it can be exploited though. Guess the obvious way would just to be to take the 5.6 to finish in the four.

Why would a liquid market with £1m matched be significantly wrong?

Surely either the win price or the place price must be wrong.

Definitely an anomaly.

[tikay]

Tomorrow is April 10th

County Championship cricket starts

the scene today at one of the venues, Chelmsford, is as follows

Click to see full-size image.

three games per division this week are

Surrey 5/4 at Notts
Warwicks 8/13 at Hampshire
Somerset 6/5 at Durham

Gloucs 7/4 at Essex
Sussex 8/15 at Northants
Kent 6/5 at Worcester

I have quoted away team prices for a reason, because the ECB in their wisdom introduced a very important change to the playing conditions this year in an attempt to try to ensure better pitches

i wrote the following yesterday

"For the County Championship, the there will not be a mandatory toss for games. The away captain will decide whether to bowl or not, as the ECB attempts to ensure decent pitches (and long term promote spin bowling).

"The visiting captain will be offered the opportunity of bowling first. If he declines, the toss will take place as normal. But if he accepts, there will be no toss."

The home team cannot now risk preparing bowler friendly pitches. In addition to the risk of being stuck in by an away captain there are now swingeing penalties for preparing unfit pitches including forfeitng games. All this points to good batting pitches and long seasons ahead for bowling county Pro"

Now thats all well and fine in june and july but on the 10th April pitches are going to be spicy anyway because of overhead conditions. Fresh pitches at the start of the season, difficult batting conditions

A lot of away captains tomorrow are going to shake hands and say "we will have a bowl" and there is nothing the home team can do about it. Once pitches firm up, the weather is better etc later in the season the new rule is going to work as intended but in the early months of the season its not really going to work as intended 

This introduces quite a skew to potential results early season in favour of away sides assuming they take advantage of the conditions

Some tomorrow, Sussex (strong favourites to win div 2) and warwicks (away at relegation favourites Hampshire) are already short odds on. nothing to go at

but for example somerset travel to durham (its tough to bat there in august, let alone April) at odds against. Surrey are odds against at Notts, and it swings a lot at trent bridge if the overheads are right

in div 2 chelmsford was a seamers paradise last year (essex would typically prepare something that looked like a vietnamese rice paddy and then pray to the gods of eastern england that they won the toss), and gloucs are odds against. Worcester's new road spends the winter underwater, the ground is right by the river and race-course. it normally dries out by mid season but batting there first in april? no thanks

So we have four away dogs who are going to have a bias in their favour, by virtue of there being no toss.

I think you could do worse than consider the following, with a filter of only wanting away dogs for value in april, and see if the impact of the away side having the choice to bowl first is the skew i think it might be

Surrey 5/4 at Notts
Somerset 6/5 at Durham
Gloucs 7/4 at Essex
Kent 6/5 at Worcester

ideal for small stakes accas (only small stakes, as weather affected draws have to be a possibility)

As you won't place your own suggestions unless someone agrees, I suggest you get on some or all of these, for sensible stakes.

Probably best to do all 4, failing which we are bound to pick the wrong ones.

Up to you, but I think we should get involved.

That thing about the toss was fascinating, & seems very exploitable.

[doubleup]

10.5-1 the field on the machine for the National...

Many Clpouds is 5.6 a place on Betfair

interesting, no?

Extraordinary. Noticed it last night and have no idea why. He's not your typical all-or-nothing horse.

He's 10-1 to win, 9-2 to finish in the four and 7-4 to finish in the six. The price to finish in the four seems ool to me. Some were predicting he'd be this price to win the thing!

Not sure how it can be exploited though. Guess the obvious way would just to be to take the 5.6 to finish in the four.

Why would a liquid market with £1m matched be significantly wrong?

Normally I'd be with you on that. But how can half the odds four places about a big-race favourite ever be right?

Maybe for something like a Dawn Approach in the Derby it would make sense, but not for a previous National winner in the National.

Sorry to sound like an old record but the more mug cash there is in a market (today is the mug day of all days) the more likely a market is out of equilibrium.  Betfair can be wrong and is 'wrong' all the time.  How do people make a living on betfair if it is always 'right'?

So the "mugs" in this case are depositing on the Betfair exchange and place laying the GN fav?  Doesn't seem a very likely scenario.

[TightEnd]

small beer, but we are testing a hypothesis

the exchange has some good prices on a few of the dogs, albeit not very liquid

Somerset Durham v Somerset Winner
£10.00 @ 3.72
Total Stake: £10.00
Potential Returns: £37.18


Surrey Nottinghamshire v Surrey Winner
£10.00 @ 3.49
Total Stake: £10.00
Potential Returns: £34.89

Gloucestershire Essex v Gloucestershire Winner
8/5
Total Stake: £10.00
Potential Returns: £26.00

Kent Worcestershire v Kent Winner
£10.00 @ 2.52
Total Stake: £10.00
Potential Returns: £25.20

[Chompy]

Betty four place market is currently 380%, which also seems odd.

Best explanation I can come up with is that it's a 4 from 39 jobbie in a compressed market. If that makes sense?

Backing 5.2 a place is way better value than 11 a win either way.