Tips for Tikay

[Ledders]

Moneysaving expert's thread for today is all about arbing and has 12.4k views. There's more people than I realised trying to do these offers risk free.

Hence the free money.

[cish n fhips]

now that we can actually consider the masters outright without being lambasted

its 12/1 the field bar jordan and rory paying 3 places

and of course a hugely competitive heat for the places, and the top two may not win. Possibly

http://www.oddschecker.com/golf/the-masters/winner

if you've watched thurs/fri, in the field without the top two who have you thought might be value at current prices?

(possibly one for before the final round, but interested anyway)

I don't know why anyone would lambast you for that.  Really not sure why we didn't have any bets in the e/w market with all that value (I was away FWIW).  Of these Matsuyama at 18/1 appeals.  Quarter first 3 wouldn't normally appeal, but with the first 2 so short, maybe that is ok too? 

Ive been watching him like a hawk due to my book.Again @18's i think its
a flick for the last two days.Im sure two or three players out of the pack will
pile the pressure and possibly get one of the McSpeith duo to stutter.No amount
reccommened but for the last two days we could pick a worse sweat.

GL Guys.

[arbboy]

10.5-1 the field on the machine for the National...

Many Clpouds is 5.6 a place on Betfair

interesting, no?

Extraordinary. Noticed it last night and have no idea why. He's not your typical all-or-nothing horse.

He's 10-1 to win, 9-2 to finish in the four and 7-4 to finish in the six. The price to finish in the four seems ool to me. Some were predicting he'd be this price to win the thing!

Not sure how it can be exploited though. Guess the obvious way would just to be to take the 5.6 to finish in the four.

Why would a liquid market with £1m matched be significantly wrong?

Normally I'd be with you on that. But how can half the odds four places about a big-race favourite ever be right?

Maybe for something like a Dawn Approach in the Derby it would make sense, but not for a previous National winner in the National.

Sorry to sound like an old record but the more mug cash there is in a market (today is the mug day of all days) the more likely a market is out of equilibrium.  Betfair can be wrong and is 'wrong' all the time.  How do people make a living on betfair if it is always 'right'?

So the "mugs" in this case are depositing on the Betfair exchange and place laying the GN fav?  Doesn't seem a very likely scenario.

The mugs will be 'overly' backing bigger priced horses in the place market (which is why the vast majority of the rags are 'under' on the machine place wise compared to their ew place terms).  The sheer weight of this cash can, and will, cause the shorter priced horses to go off too big as certain green up layers will be happy to accommodate fav backers at prices which are too big because of the classic old chestnut 'it suits to lay'.  The mug money is indirectly causing this even if they are not directly depositing to lay the front few place only.  Their cash is a major driver in this happening.

Lolzzzzzzzzzz i know but these dinosaurs still exist and create value for the winner via the mugs who bet things too short with them and they are happy to give away a % of their ev on good lays to get their green book.  Simple fav/longshot bias in play.  There are so many betfair pro 'layers' once they are full of a horse they are full.  There is 20 times more cash flying around today.  Therefore markets will be wrong.  Pro layers don't increase their limits 20 fold today they bet to just because it is the grand national.

The top 7 in the betting are all substantially bigger on bf win and place then best price with the books paying 5 places.  Not just any clouds.  Anyone backing any of the front 7 in the market each way should be doing so on the exchange in order to get the best price.

[Chompy]

True dat.

Cloudsy Woudsy is 12-1 in Betty's EW market.

[tikay]

small beer, but we are testing a hypothesis

the exchange has some good prices on a few of the dogs, albeit not very liquid

Somerset Durham v Somerset Winner
£10.00 @ 3.72
Total Stake: £10.00
Potential Returns: £37.18


Surrey Nottinghamshire v Surrey Winner
£10.00 @ 3.49
Total Stake: £10.00
Potential Returns: £34.89

Gloucestershire Essex v Gloucestershire Winner
8/5
Total Stake: £10.00
Potential Returns: £26.00

Kent Worcestershire v Kent Winner
£10.00 @ 2.52
Total Stake: £10.00
Potential Returns: £25.20

Perfect, a tenner each feels about right.

And it gives you the excuse in Daily Reports to write about cricket. It's a winner already.

[doubleup]

10.5-1 the field on the machine for the National...

Many Clpouds is 5.6 a place on Betfair

interesting, no?

Extraordinary. Noticed it last night and have no idea why. He's not your typical all-or-nothing horse.

He's 10-1 to win, 9-2 to finish in the four and 7-4 to finish in the six. The price to finish in the four seems ool to me. Some were predicting he'd be this price to win the thing!

Not sure how it can be exploited though. Guess the obvious way would just to be to take the 5.6 to finish in the four.

Why would a liquid market with £1m matched be significantly wrong?

Normally I'd be with you on that. But how can half the odds four places about a big-race favourite ever be right?

Maybe for something like a Dawn Approach in the Derby it would make sense, but not for a previous National winner in the National.

Sorry to sound like an old record but the more mug cash there is in a market (today is the mug day of all days) the more likely a market is out of equilibrium.  Betfair can be wrong and is 'wrong' all the time.  How do people make a living on betfair if it is always 'right'?

So the "mugs" in this case are depositing on the Betfair exchange and place laying the GN fav?  Doesn't seem a very likely scenario.

The mugs will be 'overly' backing bigger priced horses in the place market (which is why the vast majority of the rags are 'under' on the machine place wise compared to their ew place terms).  The sheer weight of this cash can, and will, cause the shorter priced horses to go off too big as certain green up layers will be happy to accommodate fav backers at prices which are too big.  Simple fav/longshot bias in play.  There are so many betfair pro 'layers' once they are full of a horse they are full.  There is 20 times more cash flying around today.  Therefore markets will be wrong.  Pro layers don't increase their limits 20 fold today they bet to just because it is the grand national.

The top 7 in the betting are all substantially bigger on bf win and place then best price with the books paying 5 places.  Not just any clouds.  Anyone backing any of the front 7 in the market each way should be doing so on the exchange in order to get the best price.

nice try to make up facts to fit your theory.

There are always differences between betfair place prices and books' ew place prices.  When betfair place prices are lower than the books' EW place price it is because the latter is wrong (as you well know), not because mugs have been backing them.

Your are pretty much doing a disservice to the readers of this thread when you put your own desperation to be "right" ahead of  sensible discussion.

[arbboy]

10.5-1 the field on the machine for the National...

Many Clpouds is 5.6 a place on Betfair

interesting, no?

Extraordinary. Noticed it last night and have no idea why. He's not your typical all-or-nothing horse.

He's 10-1 to win, 9-2 to finish in the four and 7-4 to finish in the six. The price to finish in the four seems ool to me. Some were predicting he'd be this price to win the thing!

Not sure how it can be exploited though. Guess the obvious way would just to be to take the 5.6 to finish in the four.

Why would a liquid market with £1m matched be significantly wrong?

Normally I'd be with you on that. But how can half the odds four places about a big-race favourite ever be right?

Maybe for something like a Dawn Approach in the Derby it would make sense, but not for a previous National winner in the National.

Sorry to sound like an old record but the more mug cash there is in a market (today is the mug day of all days) the more likely a market is out of equilibrium.  Betfair can be wrong and is 'wrong' all the time.  How do people make a living on betfair if it is always 'right'?

So the "mugs" in this case are depositing on the Betfair exchange and place laying the GN fav?  Doesn't seem a very likely scenario.

The mugs will be 'overly' backing bigger priced horses in the place market (which is why the vast majority of the rags are 'under' on the machine place wise compared to their ew place terms).  The sheer weight of this cash can, and will, cause the shorter priced horses to go off too big as certain green up layers will be happy to accommodate fav backers at prices which are too big.  Simple fav/longshot bias in play.  There are so many betfair pro 'layers' once they are full of a horse they are full.  There is 20 times more cash flying around today.  Therefore markets will be wrong.  Pro layers don't increase their limits 20 fold today they bet to just because it is the grand national.

The top 7 in the betting are all substantially bigger on bf win and place then best price with the books paying 5 places.  Not just any clouds.  Anyone backing any of the front 7 in the market each way should be doing so on the exchange in order to get the best price.

nice try to make up facts to fit your theory.

There are always differences between betfair place prices and books' ew place prices.  When betfair place prices are lower than the books' EW place price it is because the latter is wrong (as you well know), not because mugs have been backing them.

Your are pretty much doing a disservice to the readers of this thread when you put your own desperation to be "right" ahead of  sensible discussion.

There is no desperation to be right.  I couldn't care less whether you think i am right or not.  Feel free to give me another explanation for this happening on a day when millions of people who never bet all year long distort these markets and the same number of pro layers turn up to try to accommodate them all.   Once a year punters are not going to have their £20 on the front 6 in the market to place.  If they want to back those horses they will back them to win most of the time.  These type of punters equally will 'overback' the rags to place.

Many Clouds could easily have lost a leg overnight.  It would seem my theory is more logical when the front 7 in the market (assume they haven't all lost a leg) fit my so called theory. 

[bergeroo]

Only victor paying 6 places in the national? Any more offers/promos to be taken advantage of besides the 356 one?

[doubleup]

I couldn't care less whether you think i am right or not

rofl

Once a year punters don't even know the Betfair exchange place market exists.  Shrewd punters do know it exists and if there was huge value at the top of the market they would be hammering it.

The explanation is that the prices at the top of the market are more or less correct.  Probably because of the enormous field and the various random occurrences that can affect a selection.

That isn't to say that a specific horse might have form characteristics that might make it less likely to fall victim to such an occurrence.

[arbboy]

I couldn't care less whether you think i am right or not

rofl

Once a year punters don't even know the Betfair exchange place market exists.  Shrewd punters do know it exists and if there was huge value at the top of the market they would be hammering it.

The explanation is that the prices at the top of the market are more or less correct.  Probably because of the enormous field and the various random occurrences that can affect a selection.

That isn't to say that a specific horse might have form characteristics that might make it less likely to fall victim to such an occurrence.

You are a fan of betfair never being wrong i assume so do you make Many Clouds 33/1 to come 2nd, 3rd or 4th then as Doobs says?  If you don't you would have to accept that markets can be, and are, distorted by sheer weight of mug money like is the case here?  I will happily back MC at 33/1 to finish in each of those 3 positions if you want to lay it (effectively 10/1 coupled) and pay 5% commission to you on any winning bets to give you your margin for being a good sport.

Let's ask the forum then?  You have a mythical £100 bet.  MC at 10/1 to win the race or MC at 10/1 to finish 2nd,3rd or 4th?  I am pretty sure i know which option would be more popular.

[DungBeetle]

Tomorrow is April 10th

County Championship cricket starts

the scene today at one of the venues, Chelmsford, is as follows

Click to see full-size image.

three games per division this week are

Surrey 5/4 at Notts
Warwicks 8/13 at Hampshire
Somerset 6/5 at Durham

Gloucs 7/4 at Essex
Sussex 8/15 at Northants
Kent 6/5 at Worcester

I have quoted away team prices for a reason, because the ECB in their wisdom introduced a very important change to the playing conditions this year in an attempt to try to ensure better pitches

i wrote the following yesterday

"For the County Championship, the there will not be a mandatory toss for games. The away captain will decide whether to bowl or not, as the ECB attempts to ensure decent pitches (and long term promote spin bowling).

"The visiting captain will be offered the opportunity of bowling first. If he declines, the toss will take place as normal. But if he accepts, there will be no toss."

The home team cannot now risk preparing bowler friendly pitches. In addition to the risk of being stuck in by an away captain there are now swingeing penalties for preparing unfit pitches including forfeitng games. All this points to good batting pitches and long seasons ahead for bowling county Pro"

Now thats all well and fine in june and july but on the 10th April pitches are going to be spicy anyway because of overhead conditions. Fresh pitches at the start of the season, difficult batting conditions

A lot of away captains tomorrow are going to shake hands and say "we will have a bowl" and there is nothing the home team can do about it. Once pitches firm up, the weather is better etc later in the season the new rule is going to work as intended but in the early months of the season its not really going to work as intended 

This introduces quite a skew to potential results early season in favour of away sides assuming they take advantage of the conditions

Some tomorrow, Sussex (strong favourites to win div 2) and warwicks (away at relegation favourites Hampshire) are already short odds on. nothing to go at

but for example somerset travel to durham (its tough to bat there in august, let alone April) at odds against. Surrey are odds against at Notts, and it swings a lot at trent bridge if the overheads are right

in div 2 chelmsford was a seamers paradise last year (essex would typically prepare something that looked like a vietnamese rice paddy and then pray to the gods of eastern england that they won the toss), and gloucs are odds against. Worcester's new road spends the winter underwater, the ground is right by the river and race-course. it normally dries out by mid season but batting there first in april? no thanks

So we have four away dogs who are going to have a bias in their favour, by virtue of there being no toss.

I think you could do worse than consider the following, with a filter of only wanting away dogs for value in april, and see if the impact of the away side having the choice to bowl first is the skew i think it might be

Surrey 5/4 at Notts
Somerset 6/5 at Durham
Gloucs 7/4 at Essex
Kent 6/5 at Worcester

ideal for small stakes accas (only small stakes, as weather affected draws have to be a possibility)

Presumably for spread inclined punters selling the 1st innings supremacies are also of interest so you can get with the away sides with a head start?

[doubleup]

I couldn't care less whether you think i am right or not

rofl

Once a year punters don't even know the Betfair exchange place market exists.  Shrewd punters do know it exists and if there was huge value at the top of the market they would be hammering it.

The explanation is that the prices at the top of the market are more or less correct.  Probably because of the enormous field and the various random occurrences that can affect a selection.

That isn't to say that a specific horse might have form characteristics that might make it less likely to fall victim to such an occurrence.

You are a fan of betfair never being wrong i assume so do you make Many Clouds 33/1 to come 2nd, 3rd or 4th then as Doobs says?  If you don't you would have to accept that markets can be, and are, distorted by sheer weight of mug money like is the case here?  I will happily back MC at 33/1 to finish in each of those 3 positions if you want to lay it and pay 5% commission to you on any winning bets to give you your margin for being a good sport.

If I was to make a guess at its place profile, I would think it would be more like 9% first, 7% second and 1-2% third and fourth.  ie if it gets in the finish it will be first or second.

and no I wont give you 50-1 3rd or 4th.  I never bet that much odds on for obvious variance reasons.


btw I didn't say betfair can never be wrong, I just strongly disagree with your explanation for any errors in this case.

[gherkin]

Completely agree about the toss, both Surrey and Somerset look more than a fair price in this weeks games.  It's another reason why I think Durham are too big a price to go down this year.

And yeah, no rush with the 1 Day Cup bet as it's a long way off starting - I suspect the 12/1 will be gone in a few weeks but should still get 11/1

[arbboy]

I couldn't care less whether you think i am right or not

rofl

Once a year punters don't even know the Betfair exchange place market exists.  Shrewd punters do know it exists and if there was huge value at the top of the market they would be hammering it.

The explanation is that the prices at the top of the market are more or less correct.  Probably because of the enormous field and the various random occurrences that can affect a selection.

That isn't to say that a specific horse might have form characteristics that might make it less likely to fall victim to such an occurrence.

You are a fan of betfair never being wrong i assume so do you make Many Clouds 33/1 to come 2nd, 3rd or 4th then as Doobs says?  If you don't you would have to accept that markets can be, and are, distorted by sheer weight of mug money like is the case here?  I will happily back MC at 33/1 to finish in each of those 3 positions if you want to lay it and pay 5% commission to you on any winning bets to give you your margin for being a good sport.

If I was to make a guess at its place profile, I would think it would be more like 9% first, 7% second and 1-2% third and fourth.  ie if it gets in the finish it will be first or second.

and no I wont give you 50-1 3rd or 4th. I never bet that much odds on for obvious variance reasons.


btw I didn't say betfair can never be wrong, I just strongly disagree with your explanation for any errors in this case.

I would suggest you don't bet much odds on because you are clueless at pricing up big odds on shots (when you haven't got a bf market to copy because it is always right remember) and would do your cash very quickly if you think MC is anywhere near a 50/1 poke to come 3rd or 4th.

Please feel free to give your explanations then for the 'errors'.    Easy to disagree with mine but you haven't given any alternative explanations.

[TightEnd]

Completely agree about the toss, both Surrey and Somerset look more than a fair price in this weeks games.  It's another reason why I think Durham are too big a price to go down this year.

And yeah, no rush with the 1 Day Cup bet as it's a long way off starting - I suspect the 12/1 will be gone in a few weeks but should still get 11/1

just prod me nearer the time.

I will be around the county circuit a bit this year. think we've met but when i am at edgbaston i will let you know. time to once again get vertigo in that fantastic new press box.