Last week i wrote up the NFL draft for elsewhere. Many of those prices didn't last too long, markets are thin
I almost added another recommendation at the time but bottled out of it a bit, but news over the weekend means i think its now a runner
We would be, if we do it, opposing a 1/14 favourite. Which would be a notch for our betting bedpost.
Myles Jack is a linebacker. We can watch film of him and see that he is exceptionally good. Think Ray Lewis without the propensity to shoot people
Look for No. 30.
Early in the 2015 season he tore his meniscus in practice and was out for the year
Since then there has been a constant debate about his knee, how healthy he is, will it affect his career, what does that mean for his draft position etc etc
Unlike a simple ACL etc its not an easy injury, the effects linger
Jack did participate at the combine
but medical re-checks afterwards have come back mixed, plenty of interpretations
Teams picking in the first round of the draft are making a 5 year commitment worth many millions of dollars to a player they pick there. A mistake in the first round can set back any franchise operating within a salary cap as you can't not pay him and allocate the money elsewhere if he is injured - unless he is forced to retire
So here is the market
http://www.oddschecker.com/american-football/nfl-specials/nfl-draft/1st-outside-linebacker-draftedOLB is a tricky market because you have pure pass rushers and more traditional all rounders who can cover, stop the run and pass rush etc
I follow the Dallas Cowboys closely and when they came to London i met up with a few of their beat writers over the week and have been in contact with them periodically since (i pester them on social media, they reply). Over the weekend one told me that the Cowboys had moved Jack to a "sub board" and flagged him for the injury as not being selectable in the draft
all nfl teams construct a draft board, an order of players ranked in the draft from which they make their selections. putting a player on a sub board is significant
Then this came out last night
http://sportsnaut.com/2016/04/report-myles-jack-chondral-defect-right-knee/we can only make a judgement on betting value here, not really know if the chondral defect is a career limiter or not but the crucial point is
"Breer also reported that teams outside of the top 10 are researching the injury thinking the linebacker could fall to them"
Yet Jack is 1/14 to be first drafted at his position. He's not 1/14 if he's getting out of the top 10
Against him we have two players who i think should be drafted in the top 20
Leonard Floyd from Georgia is a pure pass rusher
Darron Lee from Ohio State is more of a middle linebacker than can play outside
We have a bit of cross-year comparison to help us here as Lee replaced Ryan Shazier at Ohio State and Shazier was drafted at 15 by the Steelers two years ago. Similar players, same position
I think, only a guess from draft visits to various teams that the Miami Dolphins might draft Lee at 14 if Elliott the running back is not available
Floyd could go 10-14 at his highest, maybe the Giants the first candidate for him at 10
So, we might not get much on and i don't know enough to oppose Jack with a single player but I think dutching the pair Floyd and Lee at 9-1 with Ladbrokes could be very interesting come Thursday night
Recommend £x try for £20 each and see Darron Lee/Leonard Floyd First OLB Drafted 9-1 Ladbrokes(I exclude Noah Spence, a very talented pass rusher. Spence got kicked off ohio state's football program for failing two drug tests and is a bit of an oddity in this market, he's a defensive end. if he gets drafted ahead of all three of jack/lee and floyd with his risk profile, good luck to Ladbrokes)
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