Tips for Tikay

[TightEnd]

Please see

The Tips for tikay £10,000 Celebration Naps League

http://blondepoker.com/forum/index.php?topic=66891.0

[Doobs]

Can we get 25 each way on midweek in the 1000 guineas at 20/1.  Love the French horses.  Form isn't that great but why is she here?  Connections are no mugs.  Available with Fred and 365.  Think win is right on betfair.

Leicester 7/2 on the exchange fwiw

[tikay]

Shamelessly copied from Camel's "first 8 frames winner" the other day which netted us a very pleasing £250.

The "first 4 frames" market today is.....

Draw 13/8

Ding 2/1

Selby 2/1


Selby played last, & had a really tough time, including a 76 minute frame, & a really emotionally draining last frame, which went on for ages & was nip & tuck, especially after Selby fell behind. He looked whacked afterwards.

Ding had an easier ride, & has had a longer rest, too.

Any value in this market today?

[JohnCharver]

Can we get 25 each way on midweek in the 1000 guineas at 20/1.  Love the French horses.  Form isn't that great but why is she here?  Connections are no mugs.  Available with Fred and 365.  Think win is right on betfair.

Leicester 7/2 on the exchange fwiw

You not put off by 3 places/16 runners?

[TightEnd]

no 20/1

http://www.oddschecker.com/horse-racing/newmarket/15:40/winner

i can get 1/5 18-1 or 1/4 16-1

any preference?

[arbboy]

http://www.oddschecker.com/snooker/world-championship/ding-junhui-v-mark-selby/winner

£220 ding 10/11.  Price can only be derived from the fact it is the year of Leicester in 2016 and Selby has his name on the trophy.  Can't think of one reason why this should be a flip.

[TightEnd]

http://www.oddschecker.com/snooker/world-championship/ding-junhui-v-mark-selby/winner

£220 ding 10/11.  Price can only be derived from the fact it is the year of Leicester in 2016 and Selby has his name on the trophy.  Can't think of one reason why this should be a flip.

Junhui v Selby
Match Result
   Junhui, Ding   10/11   
Total stake   220.00
Estimated return   420.00
Full stake   220.00
Full estimated return   420.00

[TightEnd]

Shamelessly copied from Camel's "first 8 frames winner" the other day which netted us a very pleasing £250.

The "first 4 frames" market today is.....

Draw 13/8

Ding 2/1

Selby 2/1


Selby played last, & had a really tough time, including a 76 minute frame, & a really emotionally draining last frame, which went on for ages & was nip & tuck, especially after Selby fell behind. He looked whacked afterwards.

Ding had an easier ride, & has had a longer rest, too.

Any value in this market today?

Selby isn't playing well enough anyway. famous last words. 

[TightEnd]

no 20/1

http://www.oddschecker.com/horse-racing/newmarket/15:40/winner

i can get 1/5 18-1 or 1/4 16-1

any preference?

i am going offline, so have to choose

reduced the stake a bit

        Bet Type: Single
            Newmarket [15:40] 1m Group 1 Stakes
                Midweek 16/1
                Each Way: 1/4 1 - 3
        Possible Payout (inc. stake) 440.00 GBP
    2 bets @
    20.00 GBP

    Total Cost: 40.00 GBP
    Total Possible Payout (inc. stake): 440.00 GBP

[arbboy]

Obviously Ding can fall in a hole mentally.  We have seen that before and Selby can play shit for 17 days and still win.  I just seriously don't get this price. 

[tikay]

Shamelessly copied from Camel's "first 8 frames winner" the other day which netted us a very pleasing £250.

The "first 4 frames" market today is.....

Draw 13/8

Ding 2/1

Selby 2/1


Selby played last, & had a really tough time, including a 76 minute frame, & a really emotionally draining last frame, which went on for ages & was nip & tuck, especially after Selby fell behind. He looked whacked afterwards.

Ding had an easier ride, & has had a longer rest, too.

Any value in this market today?

Selby isn't playing well enough anyway. famous last words. 

I have been reminded privately by an Elder that I am quoting First 4, which is the high variance route.

For the shameless nits amongst you, First 8 prices are 13/8 Ding or Selby, 13/5 the draw.

[Peter-27]

April 2016 Figures
Least profitable: MotorSport (-£131.00)

This annoys me greatly. Let me be clear right now, Motorsport will be most profitable in May. No question.

Anyhow, pre-race bets:

Podium Finish: Vettel @ EVS with Boyles/PP/Victors/Hills AND Massa @ 11/2 with 366/Uni. With Sebastian starting 7th, and Raikkonen/Bottas/Massa looking competitive this weekend, the battle for the final podium spot looks quite entertaining. Vettel is slightly overpriced at EVS, and Massa is considerably overpriced at 11/2. Massa has been quicker than Bottas through practice this weekend, and of late in general. Suggest £10 on both.

Top Six Finish: Massa @ 5/6 with the exchange. 4/5 is okay too. I don't usually suggest bets below evens, but I do feel that this represents value. Through practice, Williams have comfortably been the third quickest team with a big gap to Force India and Red Bull behind, particularly on race pace. Suggest £50.

Winning Margin: Exactly 5-10 Seconds @ 11/4 with 366. This is a good spot given that Hamilton (who should finish 2nd), starts 10th on the grid. The only possible flaw in this is a late safety car, but there isn't a high likelihood of this. Suggest £10.

Not To Finish The Race: Haryanto @ 5/2 with Fred/Choral/Hills, Button @ 5/2 with Choral, Alonso @ 11/4 with Stan OR 9/4 with 366/Fred/Hills. Rio Haryanto has proven this season that he has potential in terms of speed, but he can be a little hit-and-miss in terms of consistency. This is a tough race from a physical point of view, so I suggest £10 on the rookie. As for Button & Alonso, £10 also. Just because Honda.

Not To Have a Double Points Finish: Red Bull @ EVS with 366. Ricciardo should secure points, Kvyat will be on the cusp. EVS is probably about right when you think about the performance of the cars, but when you throw in the different strategy options, that makes this bet value. Suggest £20.

Disappointed there are no group bets any more, we used to make big profit from those. I guess the bookies are scared of my challenge  

Will look into the spreads now

[DungBeetle]

Tightly max loss on the Peterboro spread bet was only 100 quid.  It was an "index" bet so we bought at 5 and it allocates points based on playoffs and above.  So we lost 5 x 20 as they were allocated zero.

[DungBeetle]

Obviously Ding can fall in a hole mentally.  We have seen that before and Selby can play shit for 17 days and still win.  I just seriously don't get this price. 

Can't log onto exchange from here but think I have a ton on Ding at 20-1 or 25-1.  Going to let it run at the prices.  Thought Ding would be stronger favourite today.

[hector62]

Morning Tighty.

Diego Schwartzman plays Grigor Dimitrov in the final of the Turkish ATP today. Dimitrov is the higher ranked player and the one people will want to back. Schwartzman plays nearly all his tournaments on clay and has been playing well. His route to the final was much tougher than Dimitrov's and in beating Dzumhur and Delbonnis he has shown he has the capability of winning this tournament. I think the bookies have under estimated Schwartzman and we should back him.

Suggest £15 Schwartzman @ 5/2 with betfred or ladbrokes.