Tips for Tikay

[maldini32]

Scuy are 11-2 Australia, a fifth four places. Win part close to the machine, 11-10 a place is incred.

Anyone with BFSB who doesn't mind sticking one on, pm me?

Is 5/1 ok ew?  I can get on for you.

UK bottom a bet too?

Ta

[Doobs]

Flores to leave Watford at the end of the season - Do we think he could do a job at Everton?

Available at 33/1 - at a glance, this looks far too big

disagree

they are aiming bigger they want koeman (who of course they may not get). pellegrini has been mentioned

Everton with a new money man think they are a big club and will look to appoint accordingly

watford have taken 16 points from 20 games since Xmas, which ruined the potential of our spread bet. Aso blotted the Quique copybook in the short term

Aren't we on for a place still?  I haven't checked, but thought we should have enough.  Obv Leicester win by a street.

two bets

over 35.5 points, currently 44

watford +49 (so 93 net with a game to go) on the handicap paying 4 places.

I was going to ask you if the handicap bet was live.

leicester, west ham, southampton....watford? anyone else?

I have just checked.  It looks like a winner to me.

Current standings

Leicester a bazillion
West Ham 98
Watford 93
Spurs 92
Bournemouth 88

Better wait for the payout as I am going out, so rushed it.

I was a bit surprised when you posted as I checked some weeks ago and they looked pretty safe.  The probably finished closer than I expected.

Regardless of what has happened recently, the bookies think he is in the top 4 overachieving managers this season.  Sack it is then.

[Chompy]

Here comes the Friday morning ESC money...

Russia have won.

Australia have finished second.

[DungBeetle]

Flores to leave Watford at the end of the season - Do we think he could do a job at Everton?

Available at 33/1 - at a glance, this looks far too big

disagree

they are aiming bigger they want koeman (who of course they may not get). pellegrini has been mentioned

Everton with a new money man think they are a big club and will look to appoint accordingly

watford have taken 16 points from 20 games since Xmas, which ruined the potential of our spread bet. Aso blotted the Quique copybook in the short term

Aren't we on for a place still?  I haven't checked, but thought we should have enough.  Obv Leicester win by a street.

two bets

over 35.5 points, currently 44

watford +49 (so 93 net with a game to go) on the handicap paying 4 places.

I was going to ask you if the handicap bet was live.

leicester, west ham, southampton....watford? anyone else?

I have just checked.  It looks like a winner to me.

Current standings

Leicester a bazillion
West Ham 98
Watford 93
Spurs 92
Bournemouth 88

Better wait for the payout as I am going out, so rushed it.

I was a bit surprised when you posted as I checked some weeks ago and they looked pretty safe.  The probably finished closer than I expected.

Regardless of what has happened recently, the bookies think he is in the top 4 overachieving managers this season.  Sack it is then.

We have been very poor since Xmas though.  It runs deeper than results as well - the Pozzos model is based on buying and selling prospects and QSF is very conservative and won't give youth a chance.  Ighalo, Deeney, Watson, Capoue have been run into the ground whereas the Pozzos splashed out on prospects Oulare and Berghuis and QSF would rather have 3 full backs on the bench than use them (which means 90 mins for the front 2 every game).  We have Success, Penaranda and Doucoure incoming for big money in the summer and they don't trust QSF to use them.  Add to that they let him buy Jurado and Sanchez (relatively old Spanish midfielders) and Jurado gets played irrespective of form.  Behrami/Holebas have also been marginalised.

QSF doesn't seem to have squad management skills and I think we'd go down next season if we kept him.  There is more to this than meets the eye.  I thank QSF for keeping us up but it is the right decision to move on and 80% of Watford fans would agree I think.

[bergeroo]

I went for a max bet on UK last.

Aren't the UK just overvalued in the market every single year?

If I was smart I would just put my life savings on the machine the week before and just lay them at 50/1 every year...

Scuy are 11-2 Australia, a fifth four places. Win part close to the machine, 11-10 a place is incred.

Anyone with BFSB who doesn't mind sticking one on, pm me?

Is 5/1 ok ew?  I can get on for you.

UK bottom a bet too?

Ta

[Weetabix]

Betway offering up some fantastic value on the atp Rome outright, tough match vs goffin today but basically a walk to the final with a weak semi final opponent in pouille, b-way the only firm going e/w still(10/3). Prices down at 1pm. Let's go Andy.

[TightEnd]

kxip have just beaten mumbai

bad result, we need a pune result tomorrow

[Peter-27]

Okay, F1 bets for the Spanish GP (sorry they're coming so late):

Race Winner - Nico Rosberg @ 8/5 with betfayre (or highest price over EVS) - this price is just ludicrous when Nico has won the last seven races in a row. Another example of my theory that the bookies over-estimate Lewis because he's "more Hollywood" i.e. a more famous name. It is also worth noting that this is traditionally "a Nico track". Suggest £25.

Podium Finish - Max Verstappen @ 9/2 with Choral (looking above 4/1) - Circuit de Catalunya is a very much aero dominated track. It's not overall engine power that will win out here, and that's why Red Bull have a shot at beating Ferrari this weekend, maybe. At 9/2, it's worth £10 on Max. We know the kid is quick, potentially he'll blow Ricciardo away pace wise, who knows!

Points Finish - Sergio Perez @ 6/4 with various - Force India have a massive upgrade this weekend. Although, even without that upgrade, pricing Sergio over EVS for the points is utter madness. To put it into context; at the last race, Sergio suffered a puncture, severe damage, and an extra pit stop. He still finished 9th. This really needs taking advantage of. Suggest £100.

Top Six Finish - Sergio Perez @ 6/1 with laddybrookes. Same reasons as above. £10.

i wish you wouldn't say that prices are influenced by the hollywood factor. they are not. he's a quicker driver over their mutual careers, and prices have moved a lot over the course of these seven races to reflect the short term results. hamilton was routinely 8/13 for races rosberg 5/2. now they are generally joint favourites around 11/10 which feels about right, when the hamilton misfortune evens out with his team-mate which it will

anyway

Nico Rosberg Spanish Grand Prix Winner
£25.00 @ 2.50
Total Stake: £25.00
Potential Returns: £62.50

Max Verstappen Spanish Grand Prix Top 3 Finish
9/2
Total Stake: £10.00
Potential Returns: £55.00

        Bet Type: Single
            Spanish GP - Points Finish Points Finish
                Perez, Sergio 6/4
        Possible Payout (inc. stake) 250.00 GBP
    1 bet @
    100.00 GBP

    Total Cost: 100.00 GBP
    Total Possible Payout (inc. stake): 250.00 GBP

Sergio Perez Spanish Grand Prix Top 6 Finish
6/1
Total Stake: £10.00
Potential Returns: £70.00
 

I respect your opinion, but I don't agree. Lewis has been the quickest driver over their careers, but that's largely irrelevant. Nico has changed his driving style, and since he has done that, he has dominated Lewis, that's what the bookies should be focussing on if they were pricing the market up correctly. Hamilton has had a lot of misfortune which is why the championship gap is so large, however, even in the sessions where both drivers had no problems, Nico has still been much quicker.

Okay, F1 bets for the Spanish GP (sorry they're coming so late):

Race Winner - Nico Rosberg @ 8/5 with betfayre (or highest price over EVS) - this price is just ludicrous when Nico has won the last seven races in a row. Another example of my theory that the bookies over-estimate Lewis because he's "more Hollywood" i.e. a more famous name. It is also worth noting that this is traditionally "a Nico track". Suggest £25.

Podium Finish - Max Verstappen @ 9/2 with Choral (looking above 4/1) - Circuit de Catalunya is a very much aero dominated track. It's not overall engine power that will win out here, and that's why Red Bull have a shot at beating Ferrari this weekend, maybe. At 9/2, it's worth £10 on Max. We know the kid is quick, potentially he'll blow Ricciardo away pace wise, who knows!

Points Finish - Sergio Perez @ 6/4 with various - Force India have a massive upgrade this weekend. Although, even without that upgrade, pricing Sergio over EVS for the points is utter madness. To put it into context; at the last race, Sergio suffered a puncture, severe damage, and an extra pit stop. He still finished 9th. This really needs taking advantage of. Suggest £100.

Top Six Finish - Sergio Perez @ 6/1 with laddybrookes. Same reasons as above. £10.

i wish you wouldn't say that prices are influenced by the hollywood factor. they are not. he's a quicker driver over their mutual careers, and prices have moved a lot over the course of these seven races to reflect the short term results. hamilton was routinely 8/13 for races rosberg 5/2. now they are generally joint favourites around 11/10 which feels about right, when the hamilton misfortune evens out with his team-mate which it will

anyway

Nico Rosberg Spanish Grand Prix Winner
£25.00 @ 2.50
Total Stake: £25.00
Potential Returns: £62.50

Max Verstappen Spanish Grand Prix Top 3 Finish
9/2
Total Stake: £10.00
Potential Returns: £55.00

        Bet Type: Single
            Spanish GP - Points Finish Points Finish
                Perez, Sergio 6/4
        Possible Payout (inc. stake) 250.00 GBP
    1 bet @
    100.00 GBP

    Total Cost: 100.00 GBP
    Total Possible Payout (inc. stake): 250.00 GBP

Sergio Perez Spanish Grand Prix Top 6 Finish
6/1
Total Stake: £10.00
Potential Returns: £70.00
 

Nico opened a touch shorter this week.  I think it was 6/5 and 5/4.  I had a Hamilton back at 2.4 sat on the exchange since Monday which hasn't been taken.  Nico went out to 2.6x over the same period.  So any movement was down to the exchange and not any view on the two that the bookies originally made.

That's interesting info, thanks!

Anyhow, post Friday bets:

Points Finish - Nico Hulkenberg @ 5/4 with Laddybrokes and Choral. Suggest £20. There's a substantial gap between the top five teams and the rest here it seems. Force India are in that top five.

Winning Margin - Under five seconds @ 15/8 with 366. Suggest £15. This track is so aero-dominated that we often see a 2-by-2 grid in terms of the teams, and all the drivers know this track so well that both team mates are usually extremely close, almost a coin flip for who comes out on top. I don't expect race pace to be any different and therefore the winning margin should be quite small.

Double Points Finish - Force India @ 4/1 with PaddiPower and Choral. Based on what we saw today, 4/1 is crazy. Suggest £25.

[TightEnd]

Force India Spanish Grand Prix Double Points Finish
4/1
Total Stake: £25.00
Potential Returns: £125.00


Nico Hulkenberg Spanish Grand Prix Points Finish
5/4
Total Stake: £20.00
Potential Returns: £45.00

can't do the winning margin one

[TheDazzler]

Force India Spanish Grand Prix Double Points Finish
4/1
Total Stake: £25.00
Potential Returns: £125.00


Nico Hulkenberg Spanish Grand Prix Points Finish
5/4
Total Stake: £20.00
Potential Returns: £45.00

can't do the winning margin one

£15 Winning Margin - Under five seconds @ 15/8 with 366.
Booked for TFT.

[Jamier-Host]

Had not looked at it in a while as they trimmed back the value, but the Goals Galore Bonus coupon with BaldyBet looks worth checking out today.

From a quick scan there is a 9/2 treble on the Chelsea, Newcastle, & Watford games (all both teams to score) that is best price around 3/1 betting normally with the bookies.

There might be others worth throwing in as well if someone hs more time to research it. You're generally looking for matches that are priced near 1/2 "yes" on oddschecker to include.

[tikay]

Force India Spanish Grand Prix Double Points Finish
4/1
Total Stake: £25.00
Potential Returns: £125.00


Nico Hulkenberg Spanish Grand Prix Points Finish
5/4
Total Stake: £20.00
Potential Returns: £45.00

can't do the winning margin one

£15 Winning Margin - Under five seconds @ 15/8 with 366.
Booked for TFT.

Thanks Dazzler, appreciated.

Settle up after the race in the normal manner?

[hector62]

Morning Chompy.

Are any of the automatic big 5 qualifiers really bad ? I have heard ours which is bad, but not nil points bad. Coral are 6-1 on a nil points score, there were 2 last year, which I quite like.

[Chompy]

Morning Chompy.

Are any of the automatic big 5 qualifiers really bad ? I have heard ours which is bad, but not nil points bad. Coral are 6-1 on a nil points score, there were 2 last year, which I quite like.

Not sure any are bad enough this year to get nil. It's still pretty unusual thanks to most finalists already having gone through a voting process.

I read somewhere about those European types taking exception to Brexit. Think if there is to be a 0pt-er, it will be Jerk And Jerk.

Interesting point re: match bets, Scandinavia lost most of its representatives in the semis, so Sweden is bound to pick up a few 12pts from neighbours.

[Chompy]

We backed Limato for the Lockinge in the hope that the ground would be fast. It isn't, so we've lost our angle.

Time to get out. We backed at 6.8 for £50. Please come out of the bet by laying £50 at the same price.