Tips for Tikay

[Doobs]

for chompy

Lack of any correlation between jury voting and televoting at Eurovision 2016. Correlation coefficient was....0.01!

Isn't that just gibberish?  If the jury votes most points scores, the most likely public vote points is still zero and not the points the jury gave?

[hector62]

Morning Tighty.

The final of the Rome ATP takes place between Andy Murray and Djokovic.  They met in last weeks final when Djokovic won in 3 sets on what was a fast clay court. There are several reasons why Murray is the bet here. He is a smart tennis player and will have learnt from Nishikori's first set tactics yesterday when his attacking play caused Djokovic all sorts of problems. After the first set Nishikori's game fell away somewhat, but Murray gets stronger as a match progresses. Djokovic also had to have a medical timeout for an abrasion on his foot, not good news for any sportsman. Murray has also had a very easy route to the final and should be more rested.

Suggest £15 Murray @ 2-1 with Ladbrokes.

[TightEnd]

Andy Murray Novak Djokovic v Andy Murray Winner
2/1
Total Stake: £15.00
Potential Returns: £45.00

[Peter-27]

Thanks for the F1 bets Peter, always make the races more fun to watch when I have these other sweats going on 

My pleasure One of the reasons I do this is because it gets more people (from the TFT community) watching F1.

F1 bets:

Group C (Hulkenberg/Kvyat/Massa/Button) - Felipe Massa @ 3/1 with 366 - The three other drivers in this group have been struggling for pace all weekend. Massa did qualify poorly, and his car doesn't particularly suit this circuit, however he does have a better than 3/1 shot tomorrow. Suggest £10.

http://www.oddschecker.com/motorsport/formula-one/spanish-grand-prix/group-c

Group D (Grosjean/Gutierrez/Magnussen/Palmer) - Kevin Magnussen @ 7/2 with 366 - put simply, I don't think Renault are too far away from Haas on race pace. Suggest £10.

http://www.oddschecker.com/motorsport/formula-one/spanish-grand-prix/group-d

Number Of Finishers - Over 19.5 @ 13/8 with 366 - this is a track that everyone knows extremely well, so mistakes should be few and far between. The track isn't particularly mechanically demanding either. The only possible downfall of this bet is a collision on the opening lap. We actually haven't had a race this season without some degree of contact on lap one, usually multiple contacts too. I still believe 13/8 is value though. Suggest £20. For those who don't know, the grid has 22 cars in total.

Leader After First Lap - Max Verstappen @ 16/1 with 366/Hills - Price is far too high given the tendency of the Mercedes starting badly, plus the unsighted run down to turn one. Suggest £5.

on friday you said

"Points Finish - Nico Hulkenberg @ 5/4 with Laddybrokes and Choral. Suggest £20. There's a substantial gap between the top five teams and the rest here it seems. Force India are in that top five."

we have 4 force india related bets for today

points   perez   6/4   100
top 6   perez   6/1   10
points   hulkenberg   5/4   20
double points   force india   4/1   25

above you say that Hulkenberg is one of "The three other drivers in this group have been struggling for pace all weekend."

which is correct?

Both are correct. Hulkenberg has been struggling for pace all weekend compared to his team mate. All season in fact. However, because quite a few drivers appear to be underperforming here, Nico should still be within the top ten. It is looking less likely than on Friday, but still more of a probability than a possibility.

[Chompy]

SDS rides at Ripon this afternoon and tomorrow is doing the Brighton-Windsor double header.

Ryan is taking a day off today and another one tomorrow.

SDS is now joint top with Ryan on 12 and is ahead of everyone in terms of rides taken. Nobody will be able to live with him numbers wise. There's still some 10-11 around but it won't be there much longer.

If we can go in again anywhere Tighty, 4-5 is fine.

[Peter-27]

Meanwhile, on the spreads, buying S.Perez against N.Hulkenberg at 3 looks like a great spot to me!

Don't really know why it's only 3.

https://www.sportingindex.com/spread-betting/motor-racing/formula-1-spanish-grand-prix/group_a.8e6617c1-87da-4ce0-b99a-eb3660c6b928/spanish-grand-prix-specials-and-match-bets

[DungBeetle]

Note for dung beetle

I believe you have facilitated various football Spread Bets for us this season. Seem to recall that may have included Charlton?

Anyway, if we owe you anything, let me know the damage, & I'll settle up straight away.

Thanks Tikay - think it's between £70 and £100 depending on if Watford manage to cobble together a win today but will let you know.  The big loser was Peterboro index for £100 after they didn't follow our hoped jump into the promotion frame.  Charlton was (luckily) only £5 a point!  I'd have done more but Tighty saved you!

[KarmaDope]

One for discussion.

I've seen a lot on here about long priced Premier League teams away from home.

Villa are somehow 25/1 today against Arsenal. Is this a must bet or are Villa that bad that the price is right? The media are making a song and dance about Arsenal going for it to get 2nd but surely they know that Spurs aren't going to lose against a relegated Newcastle?

[Tal]

One for discussion.

I've seen a lot on here about long priced Premier League teams away from home.

Villa are somehow 25/1 today against Arsenal. Is this a must bet or are Villa that bad that the price is right? The media are making a song and dance about Arsenal going for it to get 2nd but surely they know that Spurs aren't going to lose against a relegated Newcastle?

Just about to post exactly the same thing. Apart from the bit about arsenal not being up for it, because Wenger will make sure they are.

No team is 25/1 against anyone in this league. It's also a 100% book (1/7 - 11/1 - 25/1)

[TightEnd]

SDS rides at Ripon this afternoon and tomorrow is doing the Brighton-Windsor double header.

Ryan is taking a day off today and another one tomorrow.

SDS is now joint top with Ryan on 12 and is ahead of everyone in terms of rides taken. Nobody will be able to live with him numbers wise. There's still some 10-11 around but it won't be there much longer.

If we can go in again anywhere Tighty, 4-5 is fine.

i think we are full up now

£208 @ 6/5
£139 @ ev
£123 @ 4/5

£460 total

2016 Stobart Flat Jockeys Championship
Outright
   Silvestre De Sousa   4/5   
Total stake   122.78
Estimated return   221.00
Full stake   122.78
Full estimated return   221.00

[arbboy]

SDS rides at Ripon this afternoon and tomorrow is doing the Brighton-Windsor double header.

Ryan is taking a day off today and another one tomorrow.

SDS is now joint top with Ryan on 12 and is ahead of everyone in terms of rides taken. Nobody will be able to live with him numbers wise. There's still some 10-11 around but it won't be there much longer.

If we can go in again anywhere Tighty, 4-5 is fine.

What price do you make this Chompy? i totally agree with you btw.  SDS will just hoover up all the 'shit' winners whilst Moore wins bundles of big races but just won't do the volume.

[nirvana]

SDS rides at Ripon this afternoon and tomorrow is doing the Brighton-Windsor double header.

Ryan is taking a day off today and another one tomorrow.

SDS is now joint top with Ryan on 12 and is ahead of everyone in terms of rides taken. Nobody will be able to live with him numbers wise. There's still some 10-11 around but it won't be there much longer.

If we can go in again anywhere Tighty, 4-5 is fine.

What price do you make this Chompy? i totally agree with you btw.  SDS will just hoover up all the 'shit' winners whilst Moore wins bundles of big races but just won't do the volume.

When I gave this one originally I made it an 8-11 poke

[arbboy]

http://www.gbgb.org.uk/resultsMeeting.aspx?id=139267

Big inside at BV so far this morning.

[Chompy]

SDS rides at Ripon this afternoon and tomorrow is doing the Brighton-Windsor double header.

Ryan is taking a day off today and another one tomorrow.

SDS is now joint top with Ryan on 12 and is ahead of everyone in terms of rides taken. Nobody will be able to live with him numbers wise. There's still some 10-11 around but it won't be there much longer.

If we can go in again anywhere Tighty, 4-5 is fine.

What price do you make this Chompy? i totally agree with you btw.  SDS will just hoover up all the 'shit' winners whilst Moore wins bundles of big races but just won't do the volume.

When I gave this one originally I made it an 8-11 poke

You give this as a MAX to your G buds, along with Malta top ten?

Hard to put an exact price on it. Barring injury he'd win it almost every time I'd have thought. RyRy obv not interested in going after numbers and can't see anyone else emerging from the pack.

I wouldn't want to lay him at any price this side of fives on tbh.

[tikay]

Spectacular start to the F1 GP.

That has set the cat amongst the pigeons.