Tips for Tikay

[McGlashan]

David Haye fights on Saturday night against 28-0 Swiss based Arnold Gjergjaj. Easy to overlook for his lack of size, Haye is a world world class heavyweight living in the shadows of Tyson Fury and Anthony Joshua. His explosive power, shot selection, and finishing skills are top notch. He was  unfortunate to run into Wladimir Klitschko, a safety first giant who had perfected the art of beating a smaller man. Gjergjaj is no Klitschko. Gjergjaj is like Audley Harrison but without the awkward southpaw stance. Or the punching power. Or the amateur pedigree. Or the professional pedigree. Or the hand speed. Or the foot speed. Or the technique. Or the strength. Basically, he is tall. Being tall is a good thing, unless you have no defensive skills, in which case it a bad thing as you become a bigger target. Gjergjaj has no defensive skills. Once he gets backed into a corner or against the ropes he's in serious trouble.

The over/under line is 3.5 rounds, that's 3 and a half rounds, the 1 minute 30 second mark of round 4, 10 minutes 30 seconds of fight time. The infamous Haye-Harrison bout had 7 minutes 53 seconds of action, but Gjergjaj is more on the level of Haye's last foe Mark De Mori who lasted 2 minutes 11 seconds. Such is the level of this mismatch it's hard to even put a price on Mr Ger-jai surviving 3 and a half rounds.

Rec £525 @4/7 on under 3.5 rounds with Billy Hill, V C, or unibet http://www.oddschecker.com/boxing/david-haye-v-arnold-gjergjaj/total-rounds And take £75 on round 1 @ 7/2 http://www.oddschecker.com/boxing/david-haye-v-arnold-gjergjaj/round-betting Ladbrokes differ with their round group betting. They go within 3 rounds (end of the third) which offer similar value at 8/11, laying £343.75 to a 10% account.

Too good, Sir, never in doubt.

Thank you.

And thanks to Bazzaboy for confirming my read. It's shame Haye found it so easy he went for a highlight real KO rather than be his usual stone cold killer self.

[RickBFA]

What would tickets at O2 cost tonight?

[tikay]

Evening Mr T.

It is a good job I am in a generous mood, having baked a cake today, as otherwise I may have taken offence that you had so little faith in my tip that you promised Mere to send monies over first thing in the morning, before they had even kicked off !!!

Warrington 14  Castleford  34   F/T


I have decided that I am being a bit nitty with my bet size so , if I remember, I am going to increase it to £20 or maybe £30.

That'll learn you.

Don't think Fred will complain if you up the stakes a tad, hector - I think most of the regulars here already stick rather more on that you suggest.

Another great bet, too, well done.

[tikay]

Afternoon Mr T.

If you are not tending the allotment could you put £15 on Castleford to beat Warrington in the superleague that starts in a bit.

Suggest £15 Castleford @ 7-4 with coral, hills, betfred unless your bwin account is ok as they are 24/13

I think that there's a good chance that tikay won't be available in time.
Therefore, as I know that he wouldn't want to miss one of your tips, I've placed it for him.

£15 at 9/5 with 10Bet.

Booked.

Thank you for sorting that Vince - hector called it right, or almost so - I was in the Gym.

Will send the cash across first thing in the morning.

At 14-0 to Warrington it almost looked as though you might have to send me money.
As Castleford now lead 34-14 with 5 minutes to go, I suspect that I will be sending you some.

Money safely received, thanks Vince.

Makes a nice change to receive money from Vince, oh yes.

[tikay]

Dhoni. What a guy.

I have the pleasure of owing you money, Tikay, once the pusillanimous Mr James has accommodated me.

Thanks Tal, looks like I had a pleasing day yesterday, love these little bets, they are all I need to get a buzz.

pusillanimous

Might just be the first time that word has appeared on Fred. Very good. Shame I needed to look it up to learn what it means. Not sure I'll ever use it though, it's a bugger to spell correctly.

[TightEnd]

Yesterday +£237

month to date £1510

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1eCEvN9MELsUxB81rHuWrfoX3zwIMPQQ205Lcjm3kbgU/edit#gid=24


Dhoni's final over to take RPS to victory, and condemn Kings XI to bottom place, +£110



Haye wins in the second round +£110 (£160 less £50 win in first round which almost won too)



+£27 Casteford win from 14-0 down

Click to see full-size image.

ongoing

Buemi wins the e-prix in Berlin

Click to see full-size image.

we have him to win the title, now a point behind with 3 races to go

http://fiaformulae.com/en/results/standings/?standing=driver&season=2

England win in 3 days at Headingley. Wouldn't book a hotel for day 5 in durham next week thats for sure

Click to see full-size image.

Manchester United will now have to recruit heavily to be competitve in the Community shield in August. Big test that for them

Click to see full-size image.

[tikay]

Manchester United will now have to recruit heavily to be competitve in the Community shield in August. Big test that for them



Might just win the award for best one-liner of the week, dripping with understated humour & irony.

A+ Tighty, A+.

[Sportshead]

Thanks for the daily updates Tightend always enjoy them

[tikay]

All hail MS Dhoni...........

Supergiants need 23 off the last over and then 12 off 2.

Bang Bang and Supergiants win.

Kings XI now bottom.

Never in doubt eh ... Jeeeeeeeeez. Can be booked as a winner :-)

As regards Worcestershire, durhams side last night (particularly bowling) was dreadful. We are skint so can't afford any overseas, and our main bowlers rushworth and onions rarely play white-ball cricket. It'll be way down on our list of priorities and I'd expect us to struggle all tournament.

Well done Nelly, really enjoyed sweating this from start to finish. It was never in doubt. Well almost never in doubt. 

[hector62]

Morning Mr T.

The French open tennis starts today. I backed Thiem for this months ago, I still fancy him for this but the draw has not been kind. A bet on him to win his quarter may be the better way to go as I don't fancy Nadal at all. I looked at the price for a Djokovic/ Murray final but 2-1 is just awful. So for the moment I am looking to individual matches for our fun and merriment.

No underdog stands out as a bet for me today. I want to go against Isner but his opponent, Millman, doesn't often play on clay and when he does he is woeful. The other player I want to be against is Karlovic. Just back from injury his form on clay is terrible. Other than a huge serve he has nothing to offer. He plays the Spaniard Montanes, who has beaten some decent clay courters in the past and got to the semifinal of Marrakech this season. I would have Montanes as a decent favourite today so 9/10 is good.

Suggest £20 Montanes @ 9/10 with Hills.

[teddybloat]

I love this thread.

Anyone care to do a glossary of terms for newb to betting.

Ice-cream, bonsai, the bald man etc.

Also is there a reason bookmakers are rarely referred to by their proper title? Or just accepted in-jokes ala private eye?

[Sportshead]

An issue with the Austrians is that Alaba looks likely to be on Pens, so that robs them of a possible chance of one or two easy goals.

For a longer EW shout in the top scorer market, with the extra match in the KO rounds, I think I'd rather take an AM, winger or a reserve striker from a top team who might get sub/rotation minutes than someone from  an outsider team, as my guy is likely to get 2-3 more games.

Off the top of my head.
Pogba, Conan, Payet, Schurle, Pedro, all these kinds of guys would be people I'm looking at.

All depends on who we think is in the starting XI of course and who we think is on pens.

For the groups, as Tighty pointed out in the other thread, the draw is really lopsided. I've been looking at the teams that are most likely to finish second and then face another second place team.
These are
A. Switzerland, Romania
B. More open... Russia/Wales?
C Poland, Ukraine
F Austria

The A and C teams will play each other and then also likely be in the opposite side of the draw to Germany and France, so these are the ones I looked at.
Current odds
Switzerland 66/1 - some good players, form mixed, didn't trouble England much.
Poland 50/1 (in from 66s)
Ukraine 100/1 (in from 125s) - Good core of players from Shakhtar and Kiev
Romania 250/1 - Solid but I wonder where the goals are coming from?

Austria 40/1  have been mentioned and it is interesting that the second placed team in their group is likely to get a far easier second round tie than the winners.

For fred I'd suggest small each way bets on Austria and Poland.

I'd also be interested in what people thought of Ukraine's chances?

I had a bit on Poland ew at 66/1 and we must of course remember that they have already beat Germany anyway in qualifying and they have one of the top three strikers in the competition (maybe the number one out and out frontman?). I'll be betting a bit more at 50s after Lewandowski negotiates the German Cup Final safely on Saturday.

To add: Still think Muller is the man to beat in the top scorer market. Tempted even at 7/1.

Not sure if a bet was placed but could I 2nd this bet on Poland
I realise with no thread history my view will hold little water, but fwiw I think this euro championship is very weak and could see some 'unfashionable' teams doing well
Poland,Croatia and Turkey are of most interest to me, I think so much depends on having a Striker hit form over the month so a bet on Poland will depend on Lewandowski who is probably the best out and out goal scorer in Europe
As stated by Bergaroo they are in the potentially weaker half of the draw ( my own bet is based on Spain being poor and possibly not winning their group) and have a comparatively easy path to the later stages
They are far from a one man team though and seem to have a great team spirit with Milic a rising star at Ajax and a strong midfield
As I said this may of already been placed on the previous recommendation

I know Tikay likes too build a decent Portfolio for big events ,I would also suggest a bet on Pogba to be Player of the tournament  @12/1
He has had great season will be the focal point of the best team and host nation in the tournament and if they play Kante he will have even more freedom, also they will spread their goals around so the 'Heart' of the team will be seen as the main factor in any good performances
Sorry for waffling I'm new too this

[Tal]

I love this thread.

Anyone care to do a glossary of terms for newb to betting.

Ice-cream, bonsai, the bald man etc.

Also is there a reason bookmakers are rarely referred to by their proper title? Or just accepted in-jokes ala private eye?

There is a school of thought that some bookmakers frequent the thread or otherwise search for their name being used, so not using their names makes finding the bets harder for them. The bald man is an example of that (Google image Fred Done, the man behind Bet Fred)

Ice cream is rhyming slang (ice cream freezer = geezer = mug punter)

Banzai is a long shot bet.

[teddybloat]

Thank you, squire.

[Tal]

Dhoni. What a guy.

I have the pleasure of owing you money, Tikay, once the pusillanimous Mr James has accommodated me.

Thanks Tal, looks like I had a pleasing day yesterday, love these little bets, they are all I need to get a buzz.

pusillanimous

Might just be the first time that word has appeared on Fred. Very good. Shame I needed to look it up to learn what it means. Not sure I'll ever use it though, it's a bugger to spell correctly.

I read it an article by Will Self yesterday and thought you'd appreciate it.