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Author Topic: Tips for Tikay  (Read 16398429 times)
arbboy
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« Reply #117660 on: May 23, 2016, 04:28:02 PM »

http://www.oddschecker.com/football/english/premier-league/relegation

Been money already for Stoke to go down 12/1 into 9/1 (can see the angle on the stats and the terrible GD last season).  As discussed before Palace look too big at 6/1 to go down.  Anyone think bigger than 6/1 will be available at any time?  West Brom look incredibly short to me at 2/1 and would be the lay in this market at the prices.  Can't see much between WBA and Palace tbh.

Amazing how coral have just adjusted all their prices in the last 20 minutes pushing out WBA to top price on their own and going bottom Palace on their own!!!  Prices actually changed 2 minutes after the post!  Surely you don't follow Arbdonk coral loltraders do you and have alerts set up for certain people posting?  lolzzz!  Nice to see you following fred as usual when you stick your pins in!

Surely can't be a coincidence Corals on a very quiet Monday afternoon?  Within two minutes?
« Last Edit: May 23, 2016, 04:53:10 PM by arbboy » Logged
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« Reply #117661 on: May 23, 2016, 05:02:01 PM »

^ Absolutely not a coincidence imo. Thedarkknight and his merry band of bet-dodging cronies almost certainly lurk here 24/7. And they won't be the only ones. Absolutely 1.0001 that VC have TfT bookmarked.

As for Man Utd to go a season unbeaten, are we really making the cumulative price for all 19 visiting teams bigger than a 1-10 shot?

Pricing things up as if the games are this weekend...what price City, Chelsea and Tottenham to name just three? Think this is a poor bet tbh.

Like Palace at 6-1 for relegation. Sorry Ant Sad But if Lewandowski Lite is off to pastures new, what hope is there?
« Last Edit: May 23, 2016, 05:04:50 PM by Chompy » Logged

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« Reply #117662 on: May 23, 2016, 05:14:25 PM »

So much for Goff's advanced ratings system he crows about on twitter all the time.  Obviously prefer to just follow TFT for their steers!
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arbboy
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« Reply #117663 on: May 23, 2016, 05:23:48 PM »

^ Absolutely not a coincidence imo. Thedarkknight and his merry band of bet-dodging cronies almost certainly lurk here 24/7. And they won't be the only ones. Absolutely 1.0001 that VC have TfT bookmarked.

As for Man Utd to go a season unbeaten, are we really making the cumulative price for all 19 visiting teams bigger than a 1-10 shot?

Pricing things up as if the games are this weekend...what price City, Chelsea and Tottenham to name just three? Think this is a poor bet tbh.

Like Palace at 6-1 for relegation. Sorry Ant Sad But if Lewandowski Lite is off to pastures new, what hope is there?

Very simple calc on the above with a lot of broad assumptions

Lets assume they are 3/1 to lose to any of the home 5 at home (roughly a 5/4 poke to win the game which seems fair)

Then the 'middle' 6 teams in the league they are 5/1 to lose at home

Then the remaining 'bottom' 8 sides they are 8/1 to lose at home to.

This would give the following price to be unbeaten for the season at home.

(1.33 5 times x 1.2 6 times x 1.12 8 times) =  Comes out at around 30/1 the 19 timer to stay unbeaten.  No matter what way you look at it 10/1 is terrible value.  Even adjusting for the fact if they do go close to being unbeaten these prices will be shorter for each catergory of games they will never be substantially shorter to even make 10/1 look close to value.
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« Reply #117664 on: May 23, 2016, 05:27:13 PM »

If you make each catergory 4/1 7/1 and 20/1 to lose at home to these teams they then come out at 10/1 to stay unbeaten.  There is no way Man City/Arsenal etc are going off 4/1 at OT.  Would be amazed if any team comes close to going off 20/1 at OT either this season.  Villa were only a 25/1 poke against Arsenal last day of the season last year for example when Arsenal were playing for CL spot to put some context into these prices.
« Last Edit: May 23, 2016, 05:34:15 PM by arbboy » Logged
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« Reply #117665 on: May 23, 2016, 06:48:27 PM »

^ Absolutely not a coincidence imo. Thedarkknight and his merry band of bet-dodging cronies almost certainly lurk here 24/7. And they won't be the only ones. Absolutely 1.0001 that VC have TfT bookmarked.

As for Man Utd to go a season unbeaten, are we really making the cumulative price for all 19 visiting teams bigger than a 1-10 shot?

Pricing things up as if the games are this weekend...what price City, Chelsea and Tottenham to name just three? Think this is a poor bet tbh.

Like Palace at 6-1 for relegation. Sorry Ant Sad But if Lewandowski Lite is off to pastures new, what hope is there?

I would be very happy to return to TFT if it was a closed group.

But I'm certainly not going to do lolodds compilers jobs for them.
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« Reply #117666 on: May 23, 2016, 07:41:08 PM »

Hello, I have been a long time reader of this excellent thread after playing PLO8 next door with Tony.
I haven't felt confident enough to put up a recommendation, and I am not to good at copy and pasting, but I do believe that the rule changes in the following article may lead to an angle with the disciplinary markets for Euro 2016, as players and teams struggle to adapt.
I thought maybe total yellow/reds for the whole tournament maybe under estimated?
http://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/football/36256441
Changes in language aside, here are the other things that will be different about football from 1 June:

Law 1 - the field of play

Logos permitted on corner flags (previously banned).

Mix of artificial and natural surfaces allowed on field of play (previously banned).

Law 3 - the players

If a substitute, sent-off player or match official interferes with play, causing the game to be stopped, it will result in a direct free-kick or penalty (previously indirect free-kick or drop-ball).

If a substitute, team official or outside agent stops a ball going into the goal, the referee can apply the advantage rule and award a goal.

Law 4 - the players' equipment

Players wearing undershorts or tights have to make sure they are the same colour as those worn by any team-mates - and they must also match their shorts.

A player leaving the field of play to change their boots can only be allowed back on by the referee.

Law 5 - the referee

Referees have the authority to take action from when they enter the field of play for the pre-match inspection, not from the start of the game - which means players could be sent off for an offence committed while warming up. But yellow cards can only be issued from the start of the match.

Players injured by opponents who are then sent off do not need to leave the pitch for treatment.

Law 7 - duration of the match

Time taken for drinks breaks can now officially be added on at the end of a game.

Law 8 - the start and restart of play

The ball no longer has to move forward at a kick-off - it just has to move for the game to start.

Referees should not 'manufacture' dropped ball situations, in terms of who takes them, or the outcome.

Law 10 - Determining the outcome of a match

Deciding which end a penalty shootout should take place is to be done by a coin-toss, subject to condition of the pitch, or safety concerns. It is no longer the referee's choice.

A team with more players than the other when the shootout starts must reduce the number of takers so they have the same number of eligible players - this will stop teams who have had a player sent off having their better penalty takers available sooner.

Law 11 - offside

Hands and arms are not included when judging offside.

Free-kicks for offside can be taken from where the offside player received the ball.

Law 12 - fouls and misconduct

Mike Dean
Indirect free-kicks used to be awarded when restarting games following offences against match officials. But lawmakers thought this sent out the wrong message, so they have upped it to a direct free-kick
A free-kick or penalty can only be awarded while the ball is in play.

Denying an obvious goalscoring opportunity in the penalty area is no longer a straight red card - unless the offence is holding, pulling or pushing; there's no attempt to play or no possibility of making a challenge; or it's an offence which is punishable by a red card, no matter where on the pitch it happens - violent conduct, for example.

Violent conduct is punishable by a red card even if no contact is made.

An offence against a match official will result in a direct free-kick or penalty.

Law 13 - free-kicks

When fouls are committed off the pitch when the ball is in play, the match is restarted with a free-kick on the touchline nearest where the incident occurred. A direct free-kick will be awarded for direct free-kick offences - and a penalty could be awarded if it happens parallel to the penalty area.

Law 14 - the penalty kick

Players who feint to kick the ball once they have taken a run-up when taking a penalty will get booked for unsporting behaviour. Feinting in the run-up is allowed. And goalkeepers who come off their line too early will also be booked.

Law 15 - the throw-in

Opposing players who try to impede a throw-in will be cautioned if they are standing under two metres away.

Law 17 - the corner kick

The wording has been changed in the laws to say: "The ball is in play when it is kicked and clearly moves." This is to stop players "unsportingly" touching the ball and pretending the corner has not been taken, to gain an advantage.

Hopefully someone will be able to find an angle with this information.

Cheers,

Andrew.
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« Reply #117667 on: May 23, 2016, 07:50:46 PM »

Mercier should have it locked no matter what, he is number 1 on the whole scoop leaderboard I think. 5 or 6 final tables this week.

nkeyno is 2/3 in the 2-7 Single Draw, and 100 pts behind Mercier on the overall LB...

Get it done, vixen!
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« Reply #117668 on: May 23, 2016, 07:58:29 PM »

Mercier should have it locked no matter what, he is number 1 on the whole scoop leaderboard I think. 5 or 6 final tables this week.

nkeyno is 2/3 in the 2-7 Single Draw, and 100 pts behind Mercier on the overall LB...

Get it done, vixen!

I think the tie breaker is most cashes and mercury wins. Dan wasn't sweating last night
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« Reply #117669 on: May 23, 2016, 08:02:25 PM »

Mercier should have it locked no matter what, he is number 1 on the whole scoop leaderboard I think. 5 or 6 final tables this week.

nkeyno is 2/3 in the 2-7 Single Draw, and 100 pts behind Mercier on the overall LB...

Get it done, vixen!

I think the tie breaker is most cashes and mercury wins. Dan wasn't sweating last night

Upgrade fund intact!

Cheers Adam Smiley
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« Reply #117670 on: May 23, 2016, 10:09:18 PM »

it is reported Zlatan is a done deal too. that's going to nudge the price lower today for sure

Really?

He's still a class act but his best years are well beyond him. After 4/5 years in France rolling teams over every week, the PL will be a different kettle of fish for him. Where would he even play for united? Start on the bench? Not to mention his personality/attitude potentially upsetting the apple cart.

They are signing a 35 yr old Zlatan on a free, not a 25 yr old Messi. Do think it would be funny to see him in England though.
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« Reply #117671 on: May 23, 2016, 10:53:07 PM »

Ron Dennis has been speaking to the BBC.  I think I heard that the interview is on 5 live on Wednesday at 7pm.

Here are some snippets

But Dennis told BBC Sport: "I honestly believe that the next world champions after Mercedes will be McLaren. We'll get to that goal before other people.

"It is challenging but I have a firm belief in the technical competence of our people and a firm belief in Honda." 

...

"The 2017 regulations level the playing field and it is enough time for us to catch up with Honda, so I think we'll have a good chance next year," Dennis said.

"I think we can win races. I don't want to predict world championships but I do feel that dethroning Mercedes-Benz is going to be a challenge for everybody and I have reason to genuinely believe we'll get there before anybody else."

Dennis ... said he believed Alonso was "still the best" driver in the world, adding: "It is frustrating not to be able to put him in the best engine-car combination.

"I like his maturity at the moment; he knows what's possible. He is very complimentary of the car at the moment, but that's because it's good."


In addition

Taking the engine performance out of the equation, McLaren believe their chassis is contending with Red Bull for second best on the grid behind Mercedes.

That sounds outlandish judging by the time gap between the cars - Alonso was 1.981 seconds off Lewis Hamilton's pole lap at the Spanish Grand Prix - but the evidence suggests they may well be right.

Engineers say the Circuit de Barcelona-Catalunya is one of the most effective all-round tests of an F1 car's capabilities.

The third sector of the lap is particularly good for separating out the chassis performance from that of the engine as it is predominantly slow and medium-speed corners with a comparatively small number of straights.

In that sector, Alonso was slower only than the Mercedes and Red Bull drivers in qualifying in Spain.

Alonso said: "It is quite positive. The third sector is quite a good reference.

"We are in front of many of our competitors, which is probably a surprise to many people but not to us. It is good to be in front of Williams, Force India, Ferrari.

"We will see in the coming races if we can keep improving our efficiency and mechanical grip."


Finally Button not quite as positive saying their are 3 teams ahead of them for Monaco.  Presumably Red Bull and Ferrari in additon to McLaren.

he expects "three teams who will be in front of us and the rest we can probably fight with".

Shy still have 200/1 Alonso and 250/1 on offer despite refusing to let me bet more than a pound on it for the last week.

I'm not buying this. To me, it sounds like McLaren are talking themselves up, quite possibly in order to attract a new main sponsor (which they haven't had for a VERY long time now). Their motorsport division is in serious financial trouble right now, and I'd say they're more likely to pull out of F1 in the next few years rather than win a race.
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« Reply #117672 on: May 24, 2016, 08:29:59 AM »

Probably too early for Fred for a seven month 6/5 bet, but I wonder how long a price is going to last, having seen the early NFL markets. If we think the price will probably still be around in preseason when we have more information that's fine. Interested in views, as we are blessed with neffle fans here.

In recent years, probably the worst division overall in the league has been the AFC South. There are four teams:

Indianapolis Colts were terrible, then drafted Quarterback Andrew Luck three years ago. He's been sensational, then has suffered injuries (because there's only so many times you can get clobbered by 250lb blokes before it starts to hurt). The Colts fell back into the pack last year but have drafted help in their offensive line, primarily to balance their running game and to enable Luck to do his thing. I have doubts they'll be dominant all of a sudden, but they will have enough talent to be in the solid 7-9 to 9-7 range, provided Luck stays upright.

Houston Texans erupted last season, having been a bit of a joke of a franchise for a few years. The top receiver in the game, Andre Johnson, managed to get sensational numbers despite having a raffle-chosen QB under center from play to play (they made any number of changes between three guys). They have spent big money on Denver's Brock Osweiler (real name) to solve - they hope - the quarterback worries and selected a speedy wide receiver in the first round to support their main man. When I say main man, I mean on offense. JJ Watt on defense is King. They're a legitimate franchise all of a sudden, and should mount a solid challenge to make the postseason, without running away with the league.

Much has been written about the Jacksonville Jaguars. They have drafted big and have young talent all over the field. They will entertain this year and make highlight reel plays every week on both sides of the ball. It is not inconceivable that they could make the playoffs for the first time in their history. Owned by the owner of Fulham FC, they've run an analytics-based system and have a good coach in Gus Bradley. Much has been written about their draft this year, where they went superstar on defense. Injuries depending, they seem legit and should be expecting to get close to 8 wins.

This leaves the Tennessee Titans. They too have decided that consistently making bad calls is probably not a good thing. They moved to analytics and made a number of calculated trades in the draft, which they have used to bolster their revolving door offensive line: protect the quarterback is suddenly the right idea. The team has so many new faces it seems impossible they'll all click straight away. The coaching system also likes developing wide receivers slowly and theirs are certainly taking their time. I simply don't think they have enough NFL ability right now to compete with these three teams. In 2017, they will be better for sure, but 2016 is a year too early.

So, here's the interesting part. The bookies price up the expected number of regular season wins each team will get.

Colts 8.5
Texans 8.5
Jags 7.5
Titans 5 5

Bets are over under.

The under side of 5.5 seems far more appealing to me than the over. I'd be struggling to see them winning 7 but could easily see them winning just 4. The bookies disagree. £3.65 have under 5.5 wins at 6/5.

Is it wrong enough to open a new account for? Probably not. But is this line going to be there in a few months?

They must want to lay it, if they're pricing it this way. Can we get  £50 on? More importantly, do we want to?
« Last Edit: May 24, 2016, 08:41:55 AM by Tal » Logged

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« Reply #117673 on: May 24, 2016, 08:49:42 AM »

Suggest £20 Timea Bacsinszky 7/1 to win Second quarter of French Open with the bald man
http://www.oddschecker.com/tennis/french-open/womens/player-to-win-2nd-quarter

Gonna top up a bit more myself too with Mere's approval!


I forgot that Tighty was AWOL today, so I'm temporarily in charge, & the bookies are running for cover.

We have £20 @ 7/1, Timea Bassinszky to win French Open (Girlies) 2nd Quarter, with BetFred.

BET PLACED

Without a ball being hit in that quarter yet, Bacsinszky is now best 11/2.
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« Reply #117674 on: May 24, 2016, 09:15:19 AM »

Probably too early for Fred for a seven month 6/5 bet, but I wonder how long a price is going to last, having seen the early NFL markets. If we think the price will probably still be around in preseason when we have more information that's fine. Interested in views, as we are blessed with neffle fans here.

In recent years, probably the worst division overall in the league has been the AFC South. There are four teams:

Indianapolis Colts were terrible, then drafted Quarterback Andrew Luck three years ago. He's been sensational, then has suffered injuries (because there's only so many times you can get clobbered by 250lb blokes before it starts to hurt). The Colts fell back into the pack last year but have drafted help in their offensive line, primarily to balance their running game and to enable Luck to do his thing. I have doubts they'll be dominant all of a sudden, but they will have enough talent to be in the solid 7-9 to 9-7 range, provided Luck stays upright.

Houston Texans erupted last season, having been a bit of a joke of a franchise for a few years. The top receiver in the game, Andre Johnson, managed to get sensational numbers despite having a raffle-chosen QB under center from play to play (they made any number of changes between three guys). They have spent big money on Denver's Brock Osweiler (real name) to solve - they hope - the quarterback worries and selected a speedy wide receiver in the first round to support their main man. When I say main man, I mean on offense. JJ Watt on defense is King. They're a legitimate franchise all of a sudden, and should mount a solid challenge to make the postseason, without running away with the league.

Much has been written about the Jacksonville Jaguars. They have drafted big and have young talent all over the field. They will entertain this year and make highlight reel plays every week on both sides of the ball. It is not inconceivable that they could make the playoffs for the first time in their history. Owned by the owner of Fulham FC, they've run an analytics-based system and have a good coach in Gus Bradley. Much has been written about their draft this year, where they went superstar on defense. Injuries depending, they seem legit and should be expecting to get close to 8 wins.

This leaves the Tennessee Titans. They too have decided that consistently making bad calls is probably not a good thing. They moved to analytics and made a number of calculated trades in the draft, which they have used to bolster their revolving door offensive line: protect the quarterback is suddenly the right idea. The team has so many new faces it seems impossible they'll all click straight away. The coaching system also likes developing wide receivers slowly and theirs are certainly taking their time. I simply don't think they have enough NFL ability right now to compete with these three teams. In 2017, they will be better for sure, but 2016 is a year too early.

So, here's the interesting part. The bookies price up the expected number of regular season wins each team will get.

Colts 8.5
Texans 8.5
Jags 7.5
Titans 5 5

Bets are over under.

The under side of 5.5 seems far more appealing to me than the over. I'd be struggling to see them winning 7 but could easily see them winning just 4. The bookies disagree. £3.65 have under 5.5 wins at 6/5.

Is it wrong enough to open a new account for? Probably not. But is this line going to be there in a few months?

They must want to lay it, if they're pricing it this way. Can we get  £50 on? More importantly, do we want to?

I think you're probably right with the Titans. But personally I wouldn't have a bet on it as I think they have the ability to scrape a few wins in division, after checking schedule. They could beat the Dolphins. Browns. Lions. Bears, (although I think they'll do well this year) Chargers. Then if they win 1 or 2 in division. That'll clear it. I know there's bug ifs and I appreciate they won't gel quickly. But Mariota is good and will improve second year.

I may be looking through Colt doubting glasses though as I don't rate them at all. They have improved the O line. But Luck has said he's not gonna change his game which means he'll continue to take hits. Gore is old. Hilton isn't going to set the world on fire. I just don't see them doing much again

Texans I like although I don't think Osweiler is the solution. However they've done well getting help for Nuk (Hopkins, not Johnson. Although Andre Johnson was also pretty damn good Wink  )  I think they'll do well this year.

And there's been a lot of talk about Jacksonville who also drafted well and have last years first round draft pick back after he messed his knee in the first training session last year.

It's definitely the division to watch though as there's been so much change within it in such a short space of time.

Personally I'd rather take the Colts u8.5 than the Titans. But I'll probably stay away from both
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