Tips for Tikay

[arbboy]

Coral have a special on and it is (whispers) England to reach the final of Euro2016 at 6/1.   Sure that must be a good price whatever you think of England.  I assume you can Arb that it you are a hater.  £20 max.

Cornetto question...

Are England always artificially short for these things? Presumably there's substantially more money betting than laying? The bookies could put them up at 8/1 to win it and hundreds of thousands of tenners would still be going on.

What price should England be to win? 16/1? 20/1? A poorly balanced team with a brittle defence, a cautious manager and key players either at the end of a long season or coming back off significant injuries.

There's obviously a price where we bet England correctly but I'm just interested in how we judge when we've found it.

I always find a good guide to their chances is to look at a firm like Bwin's price of England and see how close it is to the betfair price.  Their client base is far more central European based than UK.  They don't target the UK market at all marketing wise because the market is saturated.   Their England price will not be liability driven.  I would imagine England would be a winner in their book and Germany and Spain will carry all their 'mug' cash.

[Doobs]

Coral have a special on and it is (whispers) England to reach the final of Euro2016 at 6/1.   Sure that must be a good price whatever you think of England.  I assume you can Arb that it you are a hater.  £20 max.

Cornetto question...

Are England always artificially short for these things? Presumably there's substantially more money betting than laying? The bookies could put them up at 8/1 to win it and hundreds of thousands of tenners would still be going on.

What price should England be to win? 16/1? 20/1? A poorly balanced team with a brittle defence, a cautious manager and key players either at the end of a long season or coming back off significant injuries.

There's obviously a price where we bet England correctly but I'm just interested in how we judge when we've found it.

England should be about 9/1.  £26000 waiting on betfair if you think 9.5/1 is too short.  Betfair sorts out the major ricks these days.  That doesn't mean that hills couldn't go 6/1 and still attract mug cash.

[Tal]

Thanks chaps.

Coral have a special on and it is (whispers) England to reach the final of Euro2016 at 6/1.   Sure that must be a good price whatever you think of England.  I assume you can Arb that it you are a hater.  £20 max.

Cornetto question...

Are England always artificially short for these things? Presumably there's substantially more money betting than laying? The bookies could put them up at 8/1 to win it and hundreds of thousands of tenners would still be going on.

What price should England be to win? 16/1? 20/1? A poorly balanced team with a brittle defence, a cautious manager and key players either at the end of a long season or coming back off significant injuries.

There's obviously a price where we bet England correctly but I'm just interested in how we judge when we've found it.

I always find a good guide to their chances is to look at a firm like Bwin's price of England and see how close it is to the betfair price.  Their client base is far more central European based than UK.  They don't target the UK market at all marketing wise because the market is saturated.   Their England price will not be liability driven.  I would imagine England would be a winner in their book and Germany and Spain will carry all their 'mug' cash.

They're 17/2 England.



Don't come to the TalBet shop.

[arbboy]

Any firm with 2000 betting shops in England should be bottom price England if they are trading properly and haven't got their hands tied by the marketing yes men.

[Tonibell]

Coral went 12/1 for 50 quid during their preview night (betting advice from Harry Redknapp and Didi Hamann) so 6/1 to make the final is bang in line with that. Perhaps that's what their senior football trader's model makes them? 

[Doobs]

Coral went 12/1 for 50 quid during their preview night (betting advice from Harry Redknapp and Didi Hamann) so 6/1 to make the final is bang in line with that. Perhaps that's what their senior football trader's model makes them? 

Not much 5000/1 the premier league title available this year. 

[Tal]

I appreciate the price might have gone, but any love for Roodee in the Dash (3.45)? Seems to have course, distance, ground and form as ticks in its favour. There are better horses in the race, but 5 places 12/1 with Scuy and BFSB?

Anyone got a view on the greyhound derby tonight? 5 should lead the 6 on the splits, so is 7/1 Hiya Butt better value than 2/1 Jaytee Jett?

[JohnCharver]

I appreciate the price might have gone, but any love for Roodee in the Dash (3.45)? Seems to have course, distance, ground and form as ticks in its favour. There are better horses in the race, but 5 places 12/1 with Scuy?

Anyone got a view on the greyhound derby tonight? 5 should lead the 6 on the splits, so is 7/1 Hiya Butt better value than 2/1 Jaytee Jett?

Cant put you off, he beat the fav over CD this season (prob a bit softer than this is and the winners in the race off similar terms) and seems to have settled better this season and ran a bit more consistently (remember the race he won at chester he ran the length of the course and mugged off everyone who tried to catch it then blasted up to win).

[Tal]

Nice SDS winner there.

[arbboy]

Droopy's Roddick at 9/2 in the dog derby final has been hoovered.  Victor have clipped their 4/1 into 7/2 as well.   The trainer said in his RPost article today that he had gambled in the early rounds by not having the dog fully fit from resting him from an earlier Irish event.   Think tonight Roddick should get a run early and we could see something special from him.   I won't be laying him at 4/1 that's for sure.  

Butt can't win surely without big trouble in behind.  I will be laying him to place if he goes off shorter than his current price.

Can't see the fav going off shorter than 2/1 either.  Rocky in t1 as a saver to Roddick.  1x3 reverse forecast for the dreamers who want the lot!

[Doobs]

I appreciate the price might have gone, but any love for Roodee in the Dash (3.45)? Seems to have course, distance, ground and form as ticks in its favour. There are better horses in the race, but 5 places 12/1 with Scuy?

Anyone got a view on the greyhound derby tonight? 5 should lead the 6 on the splits, so is 7/1 Hiya Butt better value than 2/1 Jaytee Jett?

Cant put you off, he beat the fav over CD this season (prob a bit softer than this is and the winners in the race off similar terms) and seems to have settled better this season and ran a bit more consistently (remember the race he won at chester he ran the length of the course and mugged off everyone who tried to catch it then blasted up to win).

14/1 beats betfair win and place with 365 and others

[BigAdz]

Fav in The Dash looked back in love with the game last time, and still a few pound lower than when he won the race a few years ago. The vid of his win in the race is worth a watch.

Love the dash, but rarely get it right. Couldnt argue with cases for nearly all of them tbh. GL

[JohnCharver]

Think caspian prince will be dangerous from that draw, in this ground

[Doobs]

Fav in The Dash looked back in love with the game last time, and still a few pound lower than when he won the race a few years ago. The vid of his win in the race is worth a watch.

Love the dash, but rarely get it right. Couldnt argue with cases for nearly all of them tbh. GL

Got to agree with Adz.  Favourite was hugely impressive last time.

Postponed looks very very good this year unfortunately.  

[BigAdz]

Think caspian prince will be dangerous from that draw, in this ground

For the umpteenth time, I do wish you would make formal recommends.

Wp