Tips for Tikay

[Rod Paradise]

Choral is going 16/1 on no Republic of Ireland goalscorer. Best price elsewhere is 12s. Ireland have a tough group and are hardly prolific in front of goal.

http://www.oddschecker.com/football/euro-2016/republic-of-ireland-euro-2016-specials/top-goalscorer

In the odds for being knocked out in the first round, Ireland are rated third most likely, behind just Albania and Northern Ireland

However the odds on no goalscorer are as follows.
Albania 6
Hungary/N Ireland 7
Slovakia 11
Wales, Iceland Rep Ireland, Romania 16s

There is a good chance they will have just three games against Belgium, Italy and Sweden. All tough opponents and none of them weak defensively.

As you see above, in the no goalscorer prices they are bracketed with Wales, Iceland and Romania despite these other teams being far more likely to qualify and score because they have much easier groups. I think they are being overestimated in this market and 16s is too long.

Odds on no Rep of Ireland goals in each game from the bookies
Vs Sweden 2.55
vs Belgium 1.83
vs Italy 2.1

Coming out to just under 9/1

Am I missing something? It is late, perhaps my maths is wrong or I am not considering something.

If people agree with me then I recommend £25 - 16/1 no Republic of Ireland goalscorer as a bet with Choral.

 What is the opinion of everyone else on this?

I don't get this idea that ROI are a good bet not to score. Scored in all but one game in the qualifiers (scored in both games v Germany & both v Poland). Good on the break as well as good on set pieces.

[TightEnd]

Royal London cup today, Sussex v Essex. 2pm

50 on over 9.5 sixes, 6/5, choral
60 on under 12 sixes, 5/6, bet every day

Hope for 10 or 11 for the free roll win

i can't do both. interested in the coral line only?

[Rod Paradise]

Royal London cup today, Sussex v Essex. 2pm

50 on over 9.5 sixes, 6/5, choral
60 on under 12 sixes, 5/6, bet every day

Hope for 10 or 11 for the free roll win

i can't do both. interested in the coral line only?

I can do the bet every day.

How much?

[TightEnd]

Choral is going 16/1 on no Republic of Ireland goalscorer. Best price elsewhere is 12s. Ireland have a tough group and are hardly prolific in front of goal.

http://www.oddschecker.com/football/euro-2016/republic-of-ireland-euro-2016-specials/top-goalscorer

In the odds for being knocked out in the first round, Ireland are rated third most likely, behind just Albania and Northern Ireland

However the odds on no goalscorer are as follows.
Albania 6
Hungary/N Ireland 7
Slovakia 11
Wales, Iceland Rep Ireland, Romania 16s

There is a good chance they will have just three games against Belgium, Italy and Sweden. All tough opponents and none of them weak defensively.

As you see above, in the no goalscorer prices they are bracketed with Wales, Iceland and Romania despite these other teams being far more likely to qualify and score because they have much easier groups. I think they are being overestimated in this market and 16s is too long.

Odds on no Rep of Ireland goals in each game from the bookies
Vs Sweden 2.55
vs Belgium 1.83
vs Italy 2.1

Coming out to just under 9/1

Am I missing something? It is late, perhaps my maths is wrong or I am not considering something.

If people agree with me then I recommend £25 - 16/1 no Republic of Ireland goalscorer as a bet with Choral.

 What is the opinion of everyone else on this?

I don't get this idea that ROI are a good bet not to score. Scored in all but one game in the qualifiers (scored in both games v Germany & both v Poland). Good on the break as well as good on set pieces.

i made the argument elsewhere for Romania at 16s

lowest scorers in qualifying of the 24 teams (11 in 10 games)

in a defensive looking group..ie fra, switz and albania can all defend where qualification behind france could be very tight (not a huge fan of this swiss team from the little i have seen)

managed by a 65 year old member of the Romanian senate, which obviously is known as a cradle of attacking football

start the tournament off against france, would think they'd be delighted to get 0-0, however unlikely and go from there

[Rod Paradise]

Choral is going 16/1 on no Republic of Ireland goalscorer. Best price elsewhere is 12s. Ireland have a tough group and are hardly prolific in front of goal.

http://www.oddschecker.com/football/euro-2016/republic-of-ireland-euro-2016-specials/top-goalscorer

In the odds for being knocked out in the first round, Ireland are rated third most likely, behind just Albania and Northern Ireland

However the odds on no goalscorer are as follows.
Albania 6
Hungary/N Ireland 7
Slovakia 11
Wales, Iceland Rep Ireland, Romania 16s

There is a good chance they will have just three games against Belgium, Italy and Sweden. All tough opponents and none of them weak defensively.

As you see above, in the no goalscorer prices they are bracketed with Wales, Iceland and Romania despite these other teams being far more likely to qualify and score because they have much easier groups. I think they are being overestimated in this market and 16s is too long.

Odds on no Rep of Ireland goals in each game from the bookies
Vs Sweden 2.55
vs Belgium 1.83
vs Italy 2.1

Coming out to just under 9/1

Am I missing something? It is late, perhaps my maths is wrong or I am not considering something.

If people agree with me then I recommend £25 - 16/1 no Republic of Ireland goalscorer as a bet with Choral.

 What is the opinion of everyone else on this?

I don't get this idea that ROI are a good bet not to score. Scored in all but one game in the qualifiers (scored in both games v Germany & both v Poland). Good on the break as well as good on set pieces.

i made the argument elsewhere for Romania at 16s

lowest scorers in qualifying of the 24 teams (11 in 10 games)

in a defensive looking group..ie fra, switz and albania can all defend where qualification behind france could be very tight (not a huge fan of this swiss team from the little i have seen)

managed by a 65 year old member of the Romanian senate, which obviously is known as a cradle of attacking football

start the tournament off against france, would think they'd be delighted to get 0-0, however unlikely and go from there

I can see that logic.

[Rod Paradise]

Royal London cup today, Sussex v Essex. 2pm

50 on over 9.5 sixes, 6/5, choral
60 on under 12 sixes, 5/6, bet every day

Hope for 10 or 11 for the free roll win

i can't do both. interested in the coral line only?

I can do the bet every day.

How much?

Tighty? You want this bet?

[TightEnd]

i was hoping that nellberg would tell me to do the overs only.

then its not on oddschecker, which means i need to use the coral website

its monday morning. monday mornings and the coral website do not mix....

then the coral line appears to be over 10.5 not 9.5, so there isn't much of a middle opportunity

so i think we will leave it, thanks

[ripple11]

Can't been having Hampshire v Essex as 50/50 in the betting for tomorrow one day cup.

Hampshire been poor this season, nobody in form, have injuries, no Vince as he is away with England and no overseas stars are named in the 13 man squad.

Essex seem to have been scoring runs for fun so far and and I would have them as favs tomorrow.

I see Essex are shortening on oddschecker , but you can still get evens.

Any thoughts?

Essex win by 3 wickets.

Thank you Ripple.

You're welcome.

A bit tighter than I thought  ....especially as Hampshire also lost Carberry with an injury just before the match to make them even weaker .

[Rod Paradise]

i was hoping that nellberg would tell me to do the overs only.

then its not on oddschecker, which means i need to use the coral website

its monday morning. monday mornings and the coral website do not mix....

then the coral line appears to be over 10.5 not 9.5, so there isn't much of a middle opportunity

so i think we will leave it, thanks

Corals have moved it - was 9.5 when I got my tenner on.

[arbboy]

http://www.oddschecker.com/politics/british-politics/eu-referendum/remain-vote-percentage

One for the political punters/judges here.   Isn't this vote going to be similar to the Scottish yes/no and be really close around the 50/50 mark whichever way it goes.   We can back remain to get between 45 and 60% of the vote coupled at 2/7 at the best prices.   That is a huge band to have covered imo.   How likely is it in reality that it falls outside of this huge band?

It seems so unlikely that over a sample so big in a race that is so close that it doesn't land within this huge band surely?  What am i missing?  Looks like a huge case of fav/longshot bias in play here to my uneducated eye.   Over a sample of 30m votes can it really reach the extreme bands?

[TightEnd]

http://www.oddschecker.com/politics/british-politics/eu-referendum/remain-vote-percentage

One for the political punters/judges here.   Isn't this vote going to be similar to the Scottish yes/no and be really close around the 50/50 mark whichever way it goes.   We can back remain to get between 45 and 60% of the vote coupled at 2/7 at the best prices.   That is a huge band to have covered imo.   How likely is it in reality that it falls outside of this huge band?

It seems so unlikely that over a sample so big in a race that is so close that it doesn't land within this huge band surely?  What am i missing?  Looks like a huge case of fav/longshot bias in play here to my uneducated eye.   Over a sample of 30m votes can it really reach the extreme bands?

i backed 55-60 a while ago, that felt like it went my way for while but less so recently

i have only seen or read one judge who expected 60.01+ remain

cant see it being lower than 45

so yes, i agree

key variables

- vote turnout.

- vote turnout in labour (has a  bias to remain, and corbyn hasn't really sought to energise the labour vote, partly because of his own not wholly pro-EUview and partly because its not easy to share a platform with the tories)

- vote turnout in younger voters (older people are going to vote, and are the section of the electorate most favourable to brexit)

[arbboy]

http://www.oddschecker.com/politics/british-politics/eu-referendum/remain-vote-percentage

One for the political punters/judges here.   Isn't this vote going to be similar to the Scottish yes/no and be really close around the 50/50 mark whichever way it goes.   We can back remain to get between 45 and 60% of the vote coupled at 2/7 at the best prices.   That is a huge band to have covered imo.   How likely is it in reality that it falls outside of this huge band?

It seems so unlikely that over a sample so big in a race that is so close that it doesn't land within this huge band surely?  What am i missing?  Looks like a huge case of fav/longshot bias in play here to my uneducated eye.   Over a sample of 30m votes can it really reach the extreme bands?

i backed 55-60 a while ago, that felt like it went my way for while but less so recently

i have only seen or read one judge who expected 60.01+ remain

cant see it being lower than 45

so yes, i agree

key variables

- vote turnout.

- vote turnout in labour (has a  bias to remain, and corbyn hasn't really sought to energise the labour vote, partly because of his own not wholly pro-EUview and partly because its not easy to share a platform with the tories)

- vote turnout in younger voters (older people are going to vote, and are the section of the electorate most favourable to brexit)

Before i looked at the market i would have expected this huge band to have been a 1/10 or shorter bet coupled.   I was truely amazed it was this big.

[nellberg]

i was hoping that nellberg would tell me to do the overs only.

then its not on oddschecker, which means i need to use the coral website

its monday morning. monday mornings and the coral website do not mix....

then the coral line appears to be over 10.5 not 9.5, so there isn't much of a middle opportunity

so i think we will leave it, thanks

Corals have moved it - was 9.5 when I got my tenner on.

Sorry, been at work. Had no strong feeling for overs or unders. Flat pitch and strong batting should mean overs, but there were some big scores yesterday and still not many sixes. Happy with a free shot at 110 quid. Choral are often outliers for this market, will post again when similar circumstances arise.

[superwomble]

what does your package involve?

how did you win it? ie how much not "i had aces in the big blind and he raised..."!

been to vegas before?

please do not be one of these vulgar people that wears football tops in vegas sports lounges. desn't reflect well on our country, especially if its a peterborough shirt

Thanks chaps

The package is an 8 night stay in the Orleans Hotel & Casino with all flights and transfers. Not sure how much food and drink is included yet. While over there I'll play in the Vegas 100 tournament to crown the year's overall winner, plus there are 2 more (I think) tournaments too.

It's through the Redtooth Poker national pub league so to qualify I had to come in the top 3 of our pub league (I won it), then finish in the top 15 of the regional final (came 4th, winner gets a ticket to the Vegas trip), then finish in the top 5 of the southern national final. There are 100 winners overall - all the regional final winners over the year (there are 4 seasons a year) and the 10 winners from the 2 national finals.

Never been to Vegas before, am absolutely buzzing! It's also my wife's 40th birthday while we're over there so we've managed to offload the kids to my parents and I'm taking her with me to celebrate.

Wonder how many people over there have seen a Wimbledon shirt before.... 

Wonderful stuff, should bring a smile to the face of all recreational players.

Congrats, & enjoy.

If anyone is interested I am now officially the 58th best Redtooth player in the UK! Did a bit better in the other tournament I played over there coming 6th of 187. Came home with more money than I went with though which is a nice bonus. Couldn't watch Wimbledon's win in the play-off final but caught the last 20 minutes via Twitter - stress and celebration over football during breakfast was a new one for me!

[bergeroo]

I'm looking to oppose Federer as he returns from injury in Stuttgart this week and Thiem as the grasscourt season begins but the rest of the draw mainly throws up more questions than answers to me.

Cilic is looking the most solid at this stage, has grass court pedigree, a bye and in opposite side of the draw to Fed. I don't really fancy anyone else in the opposite side of the draw to Federer for an each way bet, but I will take a look when all the firms put their prices out after today's matches.

Any opinions?

http://www.oddschecker.com/tennis/atp-stuttgart/mercedes-cup/winner