Tips for Tikay

[TightEnd]

big rumours that Hennessey got crocked yesterday and Wales have to start Fon Wlliams today

irrespective of that almost, anyone think Slovakia are a backable price?

drifting towards 2/1 (why?) and no mugs

the uk betting market has to know much more about wales than it does Hamsik and his mates, and i am thinking wales might be overbacked

http://www.oddschecker.com/football/euro-2016/wales-v-slovakia/winner

[swinebag22]

did anyone watch the rugby this morning

wales were brilliant for an hour

england struggled in defence but won 39-28 in an absolute classic

england led 32-25 with 4 mins to go and aus had a penalty. kick it into the corner, go for the converted try, draw the match

instead they kicked it to go 32-28 down, backing themselves to get another chance, and then to win it

they didn't get out of their half, turned it over and conceded another try

easy to be results orientated, but what did you think of the call to kick the penalty?

Watched the second half of the England game and it was great viewing.

I think the Aussies made the correct decision. If they kick into the corner, they most likely score a try in the corner and have a tough conversion to just draw the game. I saw their earlier attempt at a conversion from the byline and this may have influenced the decision. Also they can destroy the souls of the english for the series if they pinch a win with the pen/try route

Trouble is, once they take the easy 3, they give England their team talk for the last 4 mins and this seemed to spur them on at the end

I think England would have kicked to the corner if the situation was reversed though

[DungBeetle]

I think Slovakia are the most under rated team in the tournament based on qualifying.  Expect them to make second round at least and long everything on their tournament spread totals at low prices.

[Peter-27]

NOTE: I was limited to £22.56.

Thanks for the bets, Peter. You know you can get the rest on by combining it with something else? I did a double with something very low odds that (I think/hope) is likely to happen, but the lower the second bet's odds, the lower their max will be.

I wasn't aware of that at all! Thank you very much DTH

[Sportshead]

big rumours that Hennessey got crocked yesterday and Wales have to start Fon Wlliams today

irrespective of that almost, anyone think Slovakia are a backable price?

drifting towards 2/1 (why?) and no mugs

the uk betting market has to know much more about wales than it does Hamsik and his mates, and i am thinking wales might be overbacked

http://www.oddschecker.com/football/euro-2016/wales-v-slovakia/winner

Think Slovakia well worth a bet at the prices

[Peter-27]

Hamilton only finishes 5th in a highly disjointed session, that bet is a loser.

[Marky147]

what on earth happened in the boxing last night?

if you are going to lose, at least we did it properly....

Went off a few points shorter than when Bazza recommended, but EM looked like he just lost his head after getting caught with that first shot, and then looked like me trying to get up after I've fallen over, lol.

[Doobs]

Guess posting whilst the footie is on might not be the best timing but qualifying stats soon.

 I think Alonso is too big to Podium in Montreal.  The car is getting quicker, he is fine in the wet, he managed 5th in Mknaco etc.   Victor are 40/1.  If we can get a tenner on before qualifying it would be good.  I have taken 33/1 which I think must be OK too. 

[Peter-27]

40/1 sounds about right to me, if anything it should be more like 50/1.

The McLaren isn't really getting any quicker (in comparison to rivals) as such. We're seeing the odd quick lap, when they turn their engine up to full power, but they don't have the fuel efficiency or electrical power supply in order to support this over anything more than three laps. This track is one of the worst ones to be down on power. I expect that McLaren might sneak a point this weekend, but they will be nowhere near the podium - unless we get a ludicrously crazy race.

[4KSuited]

Having a look at Wales for the Euros

Wales scored 11 goals in 10 qualifying games, 7 of which were against either Israel or Andorra and they are drawn in group B with England, Russia and Slovakia

England conceded only 3 goals in qualifying, Russia only 5 in a qualifying group that contained Austria and Sweden

Slovakia is where it gets a little more messy, they conceded 8 in 10 qualifiers and 3 of those goals were scored by Spain but they did allow 2 vs Luxembourg.

I think that 364 have this about right at 14/1 so at 16/1 I think theres some wiggle room in there with BMU


Rec £50 No Welsh Goalscorer at 16/1 with BMU

http://www.oddschecker.com/football/euro-2016/wales-euro-2016-specials/top-goalscorer

thoughts please

Not sure if the invite for thoughts is just to the sages that make this such an interesting board to follow; but I'm going to chance my arm with 2p's worth.

Unless Gareth Bale gets injured in the lead up to Champions League final on 29 May (or indeed during the match), then I'd be concerned about him producing a moment of world class skill against any one of the 3 teams in the group. Drawing a foul in the penalty area would be enough. Is there some intel that suggests he's carrying an injury into the final?

Well it wasn't world class magic, but the ball hit the back of the net. Losing bets aside, I'm really glad that Bale has scored for the Welsh.

[DungBeetle]

40/1 sounds about right to me, if anything it should be more like 50/1.

The McLaren isn't really getting any quicker (in comparison to rivals) as such. We're seeing the odd quick lap, when they turn their engine up to full power, but they don't have the fuel efficiency or electrical power supply in order to support this over anything more than three laps. This track is one of the worst ones to be down on power. I expect that McLaren might sneak a point this weekend, but they will be nowhere near the podium - unless we get a ludicrously crazy race.

There is a reason things are 40-1 and 150-1 Peter.  Not sure being negative on every suggestion is the way forward?  The question is of value.  Doobs doesn't "expect" these suggestions to happen just that they are too big a price?

[Peter-27]

40/1 sounds about right to me, if anything it should be more like 50/1.

The McLaren isn't really getting any quicker (in comparison to rivals) as such. We're seeing the odd quick lap, when they turn their engine up to full power, but they don't have the fuel efficiency or electrical power supply in order to support this over anything more than three laps. This track is one of the worst ones to be down on power. I expect that McLaren might sneak a point this weekend, but they will be nowhere near the podium - unless we get a ludicrously crazy race.

There is a reason things are 40-1 and 150-1 Peter.  Not sure being negative on every suggestion is the way forward?  The question is of value.  Doobs doesn't "expect" these suggestions to happen just that they are too big a price?

I think you mis-understood the point of my post, perhaps I didn't explain my point very clearly. I'm trying to say that I don't believe 40/1 is value, that's what I was trying to express by saying: "if anything it should be more like 50/1".

Correct me if I'm wrong, but isn't part of this thread an open discussion on the viability of suggested bets? I am entitled to voice my opinion, with justification of course - which I believe I did provide.

[Peter-27]

My bet suggestions have really not worked today.

Hamilton was 4th in Q1 (didn't get a clean lap done) and Sainz just crashed in Q2. That Sainz accident does mix things up somewhat, I imagine there will be pre-race value tomorrow

[DungBeetle]

40/1 sounds about right to me, if anything it should be more like 50/1.

The McLaren isn't really getting any quicker (in comparison to rivals) as such. We're seeing the odd quick lap, when they turn their engine up to full power, but they don't have the fuel efficiency or electrical power supply in order to support this over anything more than three laps. This track is one of the worst ones to be down on power. I expect that McLaren might sneak a point this weekend, but they will be nowhere near the podium - unless we get a ludicrously crazy race.

There is a reason things are 40-1 and 150-1 Peter.  Not sure being negative on every suggestion is the way forward?  The question is of value.  Doobs doesn't "expect" these suggestions to happen just that they are too big a price?

I think you mis-understood the point of my post, perhaps I didn't explain my point very clearly. I'm trying to say that I don't believe 40/1 is value, that's what I was trying to express by saying: "if anything it should be more like 50/1".

Correct me if I'm wrong, but isn't part of this thread an open discussion on the viability of suggested bets? I am entitled to voice my opinion, with justification of course - which I believe I did provide.

You are.  I just noticed that Doobs made two suggestions this weekend which are obviously long shots with reasoning and you immediately talked then down seemingly on the basis that you don't think they will happen.  Why do you think it is 50-1 rather than 40-1 or 33-1?  Felt arbitrary to me.

[Tal]

Aaron Ramsey looks exhausted. Probably shouldn't have been out last night at the Smash Hits awards.

Click to see full-size image.