Tips for Tikay

[DMorgan]

Fixed

[DMorgan]

Edit: Price is moving about all the time I've used the generally available 2.25 for the calc now, done with it

[BigAdz]

I know we have only seen a few teams, but I was mighty impressed with Poland last night. They have some seriously good talent in there, and feel like a team that know what they are doing.

Have we had a bet on them yet, i seem to recall they were discussed pre tournie, but I thought the 40-1 looked rather big after that display?*

*taking into account who they were playing etc.

tikay has them e/w off thread after they were tipped up elsewhere

He has croatia, poland and austria, small e/w at 25,40,50.

i liked the look of Milik a lot, Kryoziak (spelling, but not looking it up as am lazy) of sevilla ran the game, jacob b on the right wing is consistently good and the young 19yo on the left looked handy

N Ireland were so limited though

what i like about Poland, though its early days....is that if they finish second in the group to germany they end up in the half away from france/germany and the winner of the belgium group and into the quarter with the winner of the england group

i wouldn't be surprised to see one of these teams go very deep because of the shape of the draw

Agree with all the above, and for same reasons didn't name individuals!

As Tikay is already no point making a Fred recommend, but I have gone in again. Feels like a decent banzai.

I listened to Colin Murray earlier saying how  wonderful the Polish fans were, and the team spirit was there for all to see.

As an aside the Polish economy is on the up, with major investment being made by the EU on many hundreds of miles of road projects, and the Country is in a nice place at the moment. Totally irrelevant  tosh, but just adds to the karma of the bet.

[jakally]

Edit: Price is moving about all the time I've used the generally available 2.25 for the calc now, done with it

Are they not over 60% to get 3 points (16+25+20+2 ish)?

[DMorgan]

Yeah that can't be right, if they were 60% to score 3 points they'd be odds on to qualify.  Anyone wanna work out where I've gone wrong?

[Weetabix]

Arbboy- If you use the meeting in Rome as a guide you have a valid point, Raonic11/10 Kyrgios 8/11.  Any match on clay between the two and Kyrgios should always be a strong fav as the serve has less of a say where as grass is so tough to recover a break.  The Rome prices were way out as all things level you have a super talented player v a very limited player compared to his opponent.  You know what you get with Raonic, so the question you have to ask yourself, which side of the bed will Kyrgios step out of tomorrow.

[RobS]

Edit: Price is moving about all the time I've used the generally available 2.25 for the calc now, done with it

Are they not over 60% to get 3 points (16+25+20+2 ish)?

No.

Chance of them winning at least one game you don't add up the chance of winning each game. It's 1 - (chance of not winning any game).

So .75* .83 * .8 = 49.8% they don't win a game. 50.2% they win at least one game.

2.2% for three draws. So 52.4% to get at least 3 points.

52.4% * .85 = 44.5%.

[DungBeetle]

Arbboy- If you use the meeting in Rome as a guide you have a valid point, Raonic11/10 Kyrgios 8/11.  Any match on clay between the two and Kyrgios should always be a strong fav as the serve has less of a say where as grass is so tough to recover a break.  The Rome prices were way out as all things level you have a super talented player v a very limited player compared to his opponent.  You know what you get with Raonic, so the question you have to ask yourself, which side of the bed will Kyrgios step out of tomorrow.

To fair Kyrgios has a great serve of his own effective across all surfaces.

In 2016
Kyrgios 356 aces from 31 matches
Raonic 346 aces from 34 matches

I agree Kyrgios is the better player once you take the serve out so I'd want to be with the Aussie on this one all things being equal.  But then it will probably be decided on tiebreaks so it's gonna come down to a few key points. 

[DMorgan]

Thanks Rob, so with 44.5% the price we need to break even is x

1/x = 0.445, x= 2.25

[arbboy]

Arbboy- If you use the meeting in Rome as a guide you have a valid point, Raonic11/10 Kyrgios 8/11.  Any match on clay between the two and Kyrgios should always be a strong fav as the serve has less of a say where as grass is so tough to recover a break.  The Rome prices were way out as all things level you have a super talented player v a very limited player compared to his opponent.  You know what you get with Raonic, so the question you have to ask yourself, which side of the bed will Kyrgios step out of tomorrow.

Even if he steps out of bed the right side and it fully focused i still can't have him as a decent odds on poke for this match.   That is best case scenario as well.  He is way more likely to throw in a stinker mentally than Raonic is as well all other things being equal.

[arbboy]

Arbboy- If you use the meeting in Rome as a guide you have a valid point, Raonic11/10 Kyrgios 8/11.  Any match on clay between the two and Kyrgios should always be a strong fav as the serve has less of a say where as grass is so tough to recover a break.  The Rome prices were way out as all things level you have a super talented player v a very limited player compared to his opponent.  You know what you get with Raonic, so the question you have to ask yourself, which side of the bed will Kyrgios step out of tomorrow.

To fair Kyrgios has a great serve of his own effective across all surfaces.

In 2016
Kyrgios 356 aces from 31 matches
Raonic 346 aces from 34 matches

I agree Kyrgios is the better player once you take the serve out so I'd want to be with the Aussie on this one all things being equal.  But then it will probably be decided on tiebreaks so it's gonna come down to a few key points.  

Serving on grass is way more than just serving aces though.  Pretty crude basic stat to use to compare them.  The aussie is a marginal fav to win Wimbledon on bf over Raonic on the betfair market so maybe the price is close to being right.  Just feels wrong to me.

[Ant040689]

Thanks Rob, so with 44.5% the price we need to break even is x

1/x = 0.445, x= 2.25

I had a mare on the initial post then, the price is 23/10 for them to make the second round, which is 3.3.

Looks like this should be a big bet then?

Edit. I should be quiet and have a sit down, my price of 23/10 is on Ireland exiting at the second round. Grrr. Thanks for the effort regardless guys.

I think there will be a lay on against Belgium at over evens in that game for value.

[DMorgan]

If you can get 3.3 then yeah for sure, can't find it on oddschecker though

[bergeroo]

Banzai! Gebre Selassie is 80/1 to be first goalscorer in Spain vs Czechs with B0yles. He is a full back by trade but will line up wide midfield to counter Spains wide threat. he is also 28/1 anytime goalscorer with Lads

[Weetabix]

I agree Kyrgios is far more likely to throw in a horror service game at a crucial stage.  On the flip side Kyrgios is the better returner by some distance and Raonic statistically is one of the worst returners.  Kyrgios is more likely to break himself than any brilliance from Raonic, as dungbeetle says, Kyrgios serve is as dominant as most-2 or 3 tie breakers very likely.