Tips for Tikay

[tikay]

Before anyone starts, & we all kick off again, the Mods did NOT remove the latest post by argue. It just disappeared, as if by magic.

Now, how about we all move on & find some nice bets, & have a bit of fun along the way?

[Marky147]

Frank Harper looking slim there.

I really enjoy watching him, but he does seem to have piled the weight on a bit.

Yeah, he's a good actor.

Or maybe he's not acting, in some of those movies

Terrible piling the weight on like that... wouldn't catch any of us doing that.

FFS, tell me about it. The older I get, the easier it is to put it on, & the harder it is to lose it.

Great fun putting it on, and almost equalled by the sense of achievement when you get it back off again.

My turnarounds are generally over a few years, and not getting ready for Starbys summer every June

[Woodsey]

Is this where people come for a ruck now the brexit vote is done? 

I should drop in more often 

[tikay]

Is this where people come for a ruck now the brexit vote is done? 

I should drop in more often 

You can fuck right off, too.

Next up, it'll be nirvana sticking his oar in. Well overdue actually, I'd say.

I'll take the unders on 8pm today.

[Marky147]

Is this where people come for a ruck now the brexit vote is done? 

I should drop in more often 

You can fuck right off, too.

Next up, it'll be nirvana sticking his oar in. Well overdue actually, I'd say.

I'll take the unders on 8pm today.

I'll take the unders on 10 words in the post.

[TightEnd]

Tightend- I said what I wanted to say last night but could you not post things that I didn't actually say. I said this has to be the worst 16/1 shot in a tennis tournament, I haven't seen one as bad for some time,I never said this is the worst 16/1 bet ever placed, I said the worst price I never directly offended hectors selection, I said it was a shocking price and it still is.

and i would still prefer a more user friendly way of expressing things please.

tikay and i seem to be in a minority on this (However its his ball and the ball is going flat, so what he says in particular goes.) but the key is to be CONSTRUCTIVE.

saying something is a shocking price..you could say something like "i am not sure that 16/1 represents value because x, y and z Hector, what do you think?"

"the worst 16/1 shot in a tennis tournament" is just lazy hyperbole masquerading as an informed opinion. actually detracts from your argument

if i was feeling badgered about providing value rationales

a) i would be feeling uneasy about replying, so i probably wouldn't.
b) i would be less inclined to post another one up

and i know for an absolute fact that this has happened with other people

I often let things slide but i picked up on this because these are your only contributions. Hopefully you understand that.

[arbboy]

Why is it so hard to make a counter case against someone making a polite, well structured, logic and mathematically sound case against your bet being a long term winning bet?  That is all i have asked but as Camel says it never ever happens.  The thread isn't about backing 50 even money shots that should be 6/4 and winning 30 and everyone thinking you are a hero based off short term variance. I think when you have an 'image' on here as being a 'long term winner' even though the sample size is tiny you have a responsibility to the casual followers even more so to justify your selections in a correct manner as so many people like it or not are results orientated and follow 'winning' tipsters blind 'until they start losing'!  That made me chuckle.

Weetabix has been called out several times for making totally correct arguments and debates about bets and has been shouted down because the bets were from a 'winner' in the same way i was banned for a month for making a post that was tounge in cheek but 100% correct in everything it said about the 'winner'.

How can the fred followers learn from hector's expertise if when challenged occasionally he can't provide a reasonable argument for why the 16/1 in his opinion is the wrong price?  He makes Edmund a decent fav to beat Ferrer tomorrow in order to make Edmund a bet at 16/1 however they will not be a maximum bet put up on Edmund tomorrow when he is decent odds against even though Hector makes him odds on.  This is where the logic falls down and people with an educated opinion ask for an explanation but never get one.  The reality is he knows he has been found out as a guesser on several occasions and has no counter argument.  That is the reality.

lets get this straight. your post about Hector was so breathtakingly rude it made me gasp, and i wasn't alone

none of this tongue in cheek stuff please.

--

my point about counter arguments to bets is simply this. Lets use constructive language, not stuff like "worst bet ever" "shocking bet".

A number of people do it, and its extremely off-putting. If i am put off making any effort on the thread then sure as hell other people are, because i am the person most often trying to promote discussion and currently its the last thing i want to do

Breathtakingly rude?  Are you serious?  I have had at least 20 people contact me asking why on earth i was even banned for it as most of it was correct and true but too close to the bone because the person involved was a 'winner'.

Most of it was regarding direct quotes from the man himself ie turning the NBA or any other 'losing' sport into a winner by taking it under his wing and his lack of knowledge about staking sizes and reading a kelly staking theory book.  Is this what was considered 'breathtakingly rude'?  If not can you PM me what was so rude so i know whose toes i stood on and made so breathtakingly uncomfortable to justify a month's ban?

Arbboy must have the biggest PM box here, always soooo many people PM him after each incident agreeing with him. Not so many publically.......


As for the tiny % of winning guessers....we seem to have a fair few on here(i know by your definition, I am one)....I suppose that must be variance too?

Just to correct you adzdonk i said 'contact me' not PM me.  Plenty of people i know outside of blonde (who are not blonde members) read TFT and have others way to contact people than just PM's.  Skype, whats app, text, phone, email, good old fashioned talking when you see them in person etc etc.

Why don't we get back to business and on topic and get Hector to explain the value, or lack of it, in the 16/1 about Edmund?  Let's not get off track to allow Hector to slip quickly into the background on the back of another badly priced selection.  Sometimes you have to shout loud on blonde to get your point across as most people like a cosy life and to fit into the crowd.  Anyone remember 2010?

What rough price would you make Edmund for the competition?

For him to be a 16/1 shot he has to go off an average of 5/6 in the four games to the final after his first round match (which he is currently on the slide for out to 8/15).  As on my previous post he is going to go off decent odds against v Ferrer in his known 2nd round match.  He is highly unlikely to be a fav in any of his later matched never mind a 55% fav.  Assuming he is a 2/1 shot against Ferrer (that makes him a 7/2 shot to get to the 1/4 finals - simple double with todays match multiplied by the Ferrer price).  17/4.5=3.75 or 11/4 to win the event at the quarter final stage once he disposes of Ferrer if you assume the 16/1 is correct at the start of the event.

That makes him an average of a shade under 4/7 on average to win his 1/4, 1/2 and final matches.  Pretty sure everyone on here knows he isn't going to be a 4/7 shot in most of these games.  Even if he does we are still only buying variance by backing a 16/1 shot at 16/1.  For 16/1 to be value pre event he would probably need to be sub 1/2 in each of the last 3 games of the event.

I am not deliberately trying to piss people off here.  I am just trying to explain how 16/1 was, and is, a terrible bet win lose or draw.  Weetabix said the same thing and i think he has every right to say it unless Hector is willing to back up his bet with some numbers.  Long term successful gambling is a numbers game not about sticking pins in.  I thought we had all learnt that after 4 years.  You keep taking udner the odds you do your cash.  It still is that simple and will always be that simple.

To answer your question he is probably closer to a 40/1 shot than a 16/1 poke.  I stated this in my first post yesterday.  40/1 would imply he is a flip to win his quarter final, semi final and final matches should he get that far.  I personally think that is a stretch.  He might even be a 50/1 shot.

[arbboy]

Tightend- I said what I wanted to say last night but could you not post things that I didn't actually say. I said this has to be the worst 16/1 shot in a tennis tournament, I haven't seen one as bad for some time,I never said this is the worst 16/1 bet ever placed, I said the worst price I never directly offended hectors selection, I said it was a shocking price and it still is.

and i would still prefer a more user friendly way of expressing things please.

tikay and i seem to be in a minority on this (However its his ball and the ball is going flat, so what he says in particular goes.) but the key is to be CONSTRUCTIVE.

saying something is a shocking price..you could say something like "i am not sure that 16/1 represents value because x, y and z Hector, what do you think?"

"the worst 16/1 shot in a tennis tournament" is just lazy hyperbole masquerading as an informed opinion. actually detracts from your argument

if i was feeling badgered about providing value rationales

a) i would be feeling uneasy about replying, so i probably wouldn't.
b) i would be less inclined to post another one up

and i know for an absolute fact that this has happened with other people

I often let things slide but i picked up on this because these are your only contributions. Hopefully you understand that.

I have just provided the constructive argument.  Can Hector now do the same and reply to my post?  Is that possible?  The 16/1 is a terrible bet win, lose or draw unless you are trying to back 40/1 or 50/1 shot at 16/1 then it is a great bet.

[Tonibell]

Before anyone starts, & we all kick off again, the Mods did NOT remove the latest post by argue. It just disappeared, as if by magic.

Now, how about we all move on & find some nice bets, & have a bit of fun along the way?

The thing is, if Hector would just say why 16/1 Edmund is a rick we could all have a fanatstic bet at 20s.

[Tal]

Apologies to anyone who lost their BMU account through the AJ Green bet.



Oh and good afternoon, Mr Chandler. How are you enjoying the show?

[atdc21]

Hi all,
        i am personally not a great lover of Arbs 'tone' of posts , but here he has deff made a well rationalled post explaining the odds , and how it doesnt appear to be a value bet, mathematically.

[TightEnd]

Tightend- I said what I wanted to say last night but could you not post things that I didn't actually say. I said this has to be the worst 16/1 shot in a tennis tournament, I haven't seen one as bad for some time,I never said this is the worst 16/1 bet ever placed, I said the worst price I never directly offended hectors selection, I said it was a shocking price and it still is.

and i would still prefer a more user friendly way of expressing things please.

tikay and i seem to be in a minority on this (However its his ball and the ball is going flat, so what he says in particular goes.) but the key is to be CONSTRUCTIVE.

saying something is a shocking price..you could say something like "i am not sure that 16/1 represents value because x, y and z Hector, what do you think?"

"the worst 16/1 shot in a tennis tournament" is just lazy hyperbole masquerading as an informed opinion. actually detracts from your argument

if i was feeling badgered about providing value rationales

a) i would be feeling uneasy about replying, so i probably wouldn't.
b) i would be less inclined to post another one up

and i know for an absolute fact that this has happened with other people

I often let things slide but i picked up on this because these are your only contributions. Hopefully you understand that.

I have just provided the constructive argument.  Can Hector now do the same and reply to my post?  Is that possible?

your constructive version this morning has involved calling him a wagon amongst other things

if i were hector i wouldn't be replying. damage done earlier.

hopefully he'll still be putting bets up

[arbboy]

Tightend- I said what I wanted to say last night but could you not post things that I didn't actually say. I said this has to be the worst 16/1 shot in a tennis tournament, I haven't seen one as bad for some time,I never said this is the worst 16/1 bet ever placed, I said the worst price I never directly offended hectors selection, I said it was a shocking price and it still is.

and i would still prefer a more user friendly way of expressing things please.

tikay and i seem to be in a minority on this (However its his ball and the ball is going flat, so what he says in particular goes.) but the key is to be CONSTRUCTIVE.

saying something is a shocking price..you could say something like "i am not sure that 16/1 represents value because x, y and z Hector, what do you think?"

"the worst 16/1 shot in a tennis tournament" is just lazy hyperbole masquerading as an informed opinion. actually detracts from your argument

if i was feeling badgered about providing value rationales

a) i would be feeling uneasy about replying, so i probably wouldn't.
b) i would be less inclined to post another one up

and i know for an absolute fact that this has happened with other people

I often let things slide but i picked up on this because these are your only contributions. Hopefully you understand that.

I have just provided the constructive argument.  Can Hector now do the same and reply to my post?  Is that possible?

your constructive version this morning has involved calling him a wagon amongst other things

if i were hector i wouldn't be replying. damage done earlier.

hopefully he'll still be putting bets up

Well how about proving he isn't a 'wagon' and providing all his fans with an simple explanation why the 16/1 is value.  It isn't that hard to work out.  It is only a 5 round event and his 2nd round opponent is already known so there are only 3 unknowns left in the equation to compute.  The key starting point would be what price he makes Edmund to beat Ferrer.  He has to make Edmund a strong fav in order to think 16/1 is value.  That is fact.  Not open to debate.

[tikay]

Before anyone starts, & we all kick off again, the Mods did NOT remove the latest post by argue. It just disappeared, as if by magic.

Now, how about we all move on & find some nice bets, & have a bit of fun along the way?

The thing is, if Hector would just say why 16/1 Edmund is a rick we could all have a fanatstic bet at 20s.

Well the more you badger him, the less likely he will. That's easy enough to see, surely?

Maybe - God forbid - he got it wrong.

It remains my view that at least he is sticking bets up, so is there to be shot at. Most of his detractors are not.

If I were hector, I'd not reply.  But everyone will have plenty of time in the future, as I gather he has no plans to go away, or hide in the corner. He puts bets up. How about everyone else?

I mean, can you even begin to imagine trying to argue with Argue? He'll not let go of the bone until hector says "sorry Mr Argue, I just thought it was a decent bet". Are we reduced to that?

[arbboy]

Before anyone starts, & we all kick off again, the Mods did NOT remove the latest post by argue. It just disappeared, as if by magic.

Now, how about we all move on & find some nice bets, & have a bit of fun along the way?

The thing is, if Hector would just say why 16/1 Edmund is a rick we could all have a fanatstic bet at 20s.

Well the more you badger him, the less likely he will. That's easy enough to see, surely?

Maybe - God forbid - he got it wrong.

It remains my view that at least he is sticking bets up, so is there to be shot at. Most of his detractors are not.

If I were hector, I'd not reply.  But everyone will have plenty of time in the future, as I gather he has no plans to go away, or hide in the corner. He puts bets up. How about everyone else?

I mean, can you even begin to imagine trying to argue with Argue? He'll not let go of the bone until hector says "sorry Mr Argue, I just thought it was a decent bet". Are we reduced to that?

Not at all.  If he turns round and says 'i make Edmund a 4/7 shot to beat Ferrer because Ferrer is gone at the game' that would be totally acceptable.  I would expect him then to have a decent bet on Edmund at circa 2/1 on the day of the match though to back up this opinion.  On a forum where dozens of people follow him in blind i would expect an explanation of why he thinks the 16/1 is value.  Not silence.  Is that too much to ask?  Why can't people take a bit of flak on here.  Why is everyone so sensitive? I have had to take bundles over the years rightly or wrongly.  No one steps in to protect little old arbboy when he takes the flak.  If people have a different opinion from me we have a bet that is how the game works.