Tips for Tikay

[tikay]

... if you absolutely think someone will win despite the odds on the various outcomes not making it value, do you really just ignore it and let him go unbacked, and then kick yourself afterwards?

Yes, of course you do if you want to be profitable in the long run. How can you even think otherwise?

Therefore define long run. I think 4 and 3/4 years is quite long.

As Keynes said, "In the long run we're all deaf."

That, Sir, is either a spectacular typo even I would be proud of, a Freudian slip, or the best post of the whole debate.

WP

[arbboy]

Is this really what TFT has become nearly 5 years on?  Respected 'winning' posters talking about backing things at any price because we think they are going to win and not wanting to miss out on a winner?  No wonder the place is falling apart at the seams.  It might be time to pull up the draw bridge and RIP TFT.  You just have to believe it is a level after all these years but you know deep down it isn't.  That is the most frightening thing.

[Tonibell]

All good fun. And anyway you should be practising your patience and toleration. People who pay for tips don't understand variance and value and are going to be in your earhole as soon as you have a few losers in a row.


Mindfulness meditation has helped a lot of people?

[doubleup]

... if you absolutely think someone will win despite the odds on the various outcomes not making it value, do you really just ignore it and let him go unbacked, and then kick yourself afterwards?

Yes, of course you do if you want to be profitable in the long run. How can you even think otherwise?

Therefore define long run. I think 4 and 3/4 years is quite long.

As Keynes said, "In the long run we're all deaf."

That, Sir, is either a spectacular typo even I would be proud of, a Freudian slip, or the best post of the whole debate.

WP

+1

 

[BigAdz]

Is this really what TFT has become nearly 5 years on?  Respected 'winning' posters talking about backing things at any price because we think they are going to win and not wanting to miss out on a winner?  No wonder the place is falling apart at the seams.  It might be time to pull up the draw bridge and RIP TFT.  You just have to believe it is a level after all these years but you know deep down it isn't.  That is the most frightening thing.

I think you should have put the parenthesis around respected, rather than winning. That is more moot.


Edit. Is there an Arbboy post he doesn't edit, to try and get an extra dig in?

[arbboy]

All good fun. And anyway you should be practising your patience and toleration. People who pay for tips don't understand variance and value and are going to be in your earhole as soon as you have a few losers in a row.


Mindfulness meditation has helped a lot of people?

They won't because i set my prices to a level where those types can't afford them.  I don't have to sell information i was requested to by a couple of similarly like minded individuals who understand the game and it was a mutually beneficial deal which suits both parties.  If they decided for whatever reason to stop it wouldn't bother me in the slightest.  Equally if they started giving me any grief over short term variance i would just knock it on the head and stop dealing with them.  I don't need the money it is just an added bonus with no hassle as it currently stands.

I am a very fortunate boy where i have a skill set that makes me a living and as the last page proves there are still plenty of customers who don't get the game and keep making the same mistakes of backing 'winners' not prices.  Even after nearly 5 years of the best education they could have from some of the sharpest minds in the country they still keep making the same mistakes.  Long may it continue.

[arbboy]

Is this really what TFT has become nearly 5 years on?  Respected 'winning' posters talking about backing things at any price because we think they are going to win and not wanting to miss out on a winner?  No wonder the place is falling apart at the seams.  It might be time to pull up the draw bridge and RIP TFT.  You just have to believe it is a level after all these years but you know deep down it isn't.  That is the most frightening thing.

I think you should have put the parenthesis around respected, rather than winning. That is more moot.


Edit. Is there an Arbboy post he doesn't edit, to try and get an extra dig in?

Says the troll who edit'd his last two posts to do exactly that!

[BigAdz]

Is this really what TFT has become nearly 5 years on?  Respected 'winning' posters talking about backing things at any price because we think they are going to win and not wanting to miss out on a winner?  No wonder the place is falling apart at the seams.  It might be time to pull up the draw bridge and RIP TFT.  You just have to believe it is a level after all these years but you know deep down it isn't.  That is the most frightening thing.

I think you should have put the parenthesis around respected, rather than winning. That is more moot.


Edit. Is there an Arbboy post he doesn't edit, to try and get an extra dig in?

Says the troll who edit'd his last two posts to do exactly that!

Irony is lost on you.

[Tonibell]

Even after nearly 5 years of the best education they could have from some of the sharpest minds in the country

This is it. Try to find a betting discussion of the level you see here somewhere else on the 'net. You can't.

Bigadz gets to cheer his winners home. Arb gets to demonstrate how to calculate value across a tournament. I get to pay attention. Room for everyone.

[arbboy]

Even after nearly 5 years of the best education they could have from some of the sharpest minds in the country

This is it. Try to find a betting discussion of the level you see here somewhere else on the 'net. You can't.

Bigadz gets to cheer his winners home. Arb gets to demonstrate how to calculate value across a tournament. I get to pay attention. Room for everyone.

Do you want to read betting discussion about backing 'winners' at any price because you don't want to miss out on a winner?  I think you could find that basement level of betting discussion down the dog and duck in any town in England from people who think they are lifetime winners gambling.  This place was set up by Camel to be a few levels above that.  Like i said pull up the draw bridge. RIP.

[TightEnd]

Even after nearly 5 years of the best education they could have from some of the sharpest minds in the country

This is it. Try to find a betting discussion of the level you see here somewhere else on the 'net. You can't.

Bigadz gets to cheer his winners home. Arb gets to demonstrate how to calculate value across a tournament. I get to pay attention. Room for everyone.

Do you want to read betting discussion about backing 'winners' at any price because you don't want to miss out on a winner?  I think you could find that basement level of betting discussion down the dog and duck in any town in England from people who think they are lifetime winners gambling.  This place was set up by Camel to be a few levels above that.  Like i said pull up the draw bridge. RIP.

no one is saying that

this all started when i asked weetabix to moderate the edgy tone of his comment, because by doing so it can promote discussion and not make the original bet suggester feel uncomfortable

nothing about whether hector's bet was good value or not. it looks like it probably isn't. not the end of the world and something we can learn from IF the "teaching" is posted in the right manner. some of it was, some of it was laced with barbs.

sadly, once you and bigadz get involved, you don't let it drop. the pair of you, been the same for two years. Boring as a tandem (though obviously fun for the rubberneckers, of whom there are plenty who contribute nothing), predictable and both as bad as each other.

[arbboy]

why isn't posting comments on this thread from a respected 'winner' about backing winners at any price a banning offense?   Does that level of trolling really enhance the forum and make people want to post and read TFT anymore than my tounge in cheek hector post which got a month's ban?

Why did Adz even get involved?  There was a 3 way discussion about tennis (which adz knows nothing about and added zero to the factual odds debate) between me weetabix and hector.  Why does Adz feel the need to even comment to such degrees?  It is the same with Chompy and adz re crowley.  There is always one common feature in all of these rucks.  adzdonk.

[Tonibell]

This place was set up by Camel to be a few levels above that.  Like i said pull up the draw bridge. RIP.

Or just keep posting at the Camel level and trust readers to sort the one kind of post out from the other. One of those.

[BigAdz]

Even after nearly 5 years of the best education they could have from some of the sharpest minds in the country

This is it. Try to find a betting discussion of the level you see here somewhere else on the 'net. You can't.

Bigadz gets to cheer his winners home. Arb gets to demonstrate how to calculate value across a tournament. I get to pay attention. Room for everyone.

Do you want to read betting discussion about backing 'winners' at any price because you don't want to miss out on a winner?  I think you could find that basement level of betting discussion down the dog and duck in any town in England from people who think they are lifetime winners gambling.  This place was set up by Camel to be a few levels above that.  Like i said pull up the draw bridge. RIP.

What is it exactly you don't get?

There are plenty I don't follow here who put up the odd snippet/even winner, but with very little evidence it is in fact value. I don't blindly follow every Tom Dick etc. I have deduced Hector makes me money. What a foolish troll I am.

Hector has proved year on year he can produce the goods. The sample size to me as a mere human that may live only 50 betting years, seems large enough to me. Or should i wait until I am nearly dead to decide " oh yes, he was winning after 5 years, but I left it longer because Arguetwat decided it wasn't long enough". Why would you not follow him, value or not?

Lets be under no illusion, many cases of value on this thread are only "value" because someone has put up a tip that 3 people on here have followed and thus, alerted a trader to a 5 minute window of activity that they have reacted to. I don't call that finding "value", just creating a false market reaction.

[Tonibell]

See? I'm an adult. I can make my mind up whether I prefer Bigadz's opinion of how markets work or your numbers. Room for both without getting aereated.