Tips for Tikay

[Doobs]

X factor
Think it's time to get on Sara alto to win
Her performance last night has over a million views on the X factor official YouTube video
Favourite Matt terry has like 200k
I thought maybe a one off
Same last week 1.6 million to 300k of the next closest
Same week before and so on
Crazy the difference in view counts
Anyone know why
Reckon she gets top 3 over Emily too

I put some money on last night.  I haven't seen any of the shows but watched a few Saara videos last night.  She comes across a bit annoying and hit and miss.  Some videos cam across as borderline Euro parp, some were very good though.  She seems to have been in the sing off in weeks one and two?  Not sure that shows a lot of popularity?

Suspect the views may be at least partially due to her previous star status in Finland.  No idea on her PR there, but presumably she is getting some press out there, which means a lot of non voters could be viewing youtube.

But at 10/1 or so on betfair last night, may as well bung a few quid on her.  Not sure I'll be tuning in, the show looks worse than I remember it.

Having drifted out to 14 or so during the week, she is now into 5/1 2nd favourite on the machine.  Sleepy ladbrokes are still 6/1. 

Apparently the price drop was due to her "singing in tune". 

under 3/1 now!

Proper swear now. Go Saara.  Worked out after I posted she had been in the sing off 3 times.  There can't have been many, if any, come back from there to win.   

Cheers for the tip.

[exstream]

Was fairly early that she was in the sing offs I think though if it makes any difference.
i should have went back in at the bigger price during the week...

[Newportlad]

If you can get 11/8 on Ed Balls to go tomorrow, I'd advocate a £20 bet.

You're essentially betting on him to finish outside the top two in votes, as he's certain to be bottom of the leaderboard, with two dances (including a cha cha challenge group elimination). This week's tango is camp but he will stomp through it (Satisfaction by the Rolling Stones) and have a Zoolander pout. It'll be fun but won't match last week's routine or (of course) the one before it.

With the stuff in the press, but more the fact there's always a novelty act and the week after Blackpool people tend to be more serious with their votes when there's a quieter week, I get the feeling this might be his time.

If there's a market on Danny's score out there or on top score of the night, please let me know. From the footage, I would set the line on Danny's samba at 39.5. He's Ramprakash good at the samba. Yes, I actually just said that. I've never seen knees like it in Strictly.  

I know Fred didn't, but I hope some got on.

Cheers Tal   

[nuros]

Moscow are 6/1 in various places away to Spurs in the Champions League on the 7th Dec. If Spurs lose they avoid the Europa league, do they really want to try that hard to be in that competition? It's a while away at the minute and I don't really know how the prices may change in the meantime but I wasn't expecting Spurs to be 1/2 for this game for this reason, though maybe I'm over estimating the likelihood of them fielding a much weakened side. I guess there's a chance Moscow won't overly want to take part in the Europa league this season too!  BFE is 28/5 so obviously not much difference in price there and I guess this has been taken into account at least to some extent as it's not exactly a secret that being in the Europa league harms a teams chances in the league and for comparatively little (financial) reward. Also it's not like Spurs aren't used to competing in Europe by now and have a big enough squad to do so. Maybe there are some thoughts that the Europa League will be their best chance to be in the Champions League next season though with the competition for top the 4? I'm assuming the players, staff and fans will all believe they can make it though may not want to throw this back up option away. Any thoughts?

[tikay]

If you can get 11/8 on Ed Balls to go tomorrow, I'd advocate a £20 bet.

You're essentially betting on him to finish outside the top two in votes, as he's certain to be bottom of the leaderboard, with two dances (including a cha cha challenge group elimination). This week's tango is camp but he will stomp through it (Satisfaction by the Rolling Stones) and have a Zoolander pout. It'll be fun but won't match last week's routine or (of course) the one before it.

With the stuff in the press, but more the fact there's always a novelty act and the week after Blackpool people tend to be more serious with their votes when there's a quieter week, I get the feeling this might be his time.

If there's a market on Danny's score out there or on top score of the night, please let me know. From the footage, I would set the line on Danny's samba at 39.5. He's Ramprakash good at the samba. Yes, I actually just said that. I've never seen knees like it in Strictly.  

I know Fred didn't, but I hope some got on.

Nice spot Mr Tal. Shame we missed it, due to AWOL-ness.

[tikay]

Moscow are 6/1 in various places away to Spurs in the Champions League on the 7th Dec. If Spurs lose they avoid the Europa league, do they really want to try that hard to be in that competition? It's a while away at the minute and I don't really know how the prices may change in the meantime but I wasn't expecting Spurs to be 1/2 for this game for this reason, though maybe I'm over estimating the likelihood of them fielding a much weakened side. I guess there's a chance Moscow won't overly want to take part in the Europa league this season too!  BFE is 28/5 so obviously not much difference in price there and I guess this has been taken into account at least to some extent as it's not exactly a secret that being in the Europa league harms a teams chances in the league and for comparatively little (financial) reward. Also it's not like Spurs aren't used to competing in Europe by now and have a big enough squad to do so. Maybe there are some thoughts that the Europa League will be their best chance to be in the Champions League next season though with the competition for top the 4? I'm assuming the players, staff and fans will all believe they can make it though may not want to throw this back up option away. Any thoughts?

Interesting one, this.

Would they play their Europa League games at Wembley? Think that may sway it. 75,000 (?) at Wembley, even allowing for paying the rent, must come to a lot more income than 32,000 at WHL. And Daniel has a keen eye for looking after money.

[Tal]

Moscow are 6/1 in various places away to Spurs in the Champions League on the 7th Dec. If Spurs lose they avoid the Europa league, do they really want to try that hard to be in that competition? It's a while away at the minute and I don't really know how the prices may change in the meantime but I wasn't expecting Spurs to be 1/2 for this game for this reason, though maybe I'm over estimating the likelihood of them fielding a much weakened side. I guess there's a chance Moscow won't overly want to take part in the Europa league this season too!  BFE is 28/5 so obviously not much difference in price there and I guess this has been taken into account at least to some extent as it's not exactly a secret that being in the Europa league harms a teams chances in the league and for comparatively little (financial) reward. Also it's not like Spurs aren't used to competing in Europe by now and have a big enough squad to do so. Maybe there are some thoughts that the Europa League will be their best chance to be in the Champions League next season though with the competition for top the 4? I'm assuming the players, staff and fans will all believe they can make it though may not want to throw this back up option away. Any thoughts?

Interesting one, this.

Would they play their Europa League games at Wembley? Think that may sway it. 75,000 (?) at Wembley, even allowing for paying the rent, must come to a lot more income than 32,000 at WHL. And Daniel has a keen eye for looking after money.

We will definitely play our Europa games at Wembley. 

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/football/2016/11/24/mauricio-pochettino-confirms-tottenham-will-play-possible-europa/

“If we are in the Europa League we will play at Wembley. I don’t know where the rumour started [that Europa League matches might be switched back to White Hart Lane]. Never. We play at Wembley and we have to make it our home.”

[nellberg]

Moscow are 6/1 in various places away to Spurs in the Champions League on the 7th Dec. If Spurs lose they avoid the Europa league, do they really want to try that hard to be in that competition? It's a while away at the minute and I don't really know how the prices may change in the meantime but I wasn't expecting Spurs to be 1/2 for this game for this reason, though maybe I'm over estimating the likelihood of them fielding a much weakened side. I guess there's a chance Moscow won't overly want to take part in the Europa league this season too!  BFE is 28/5 so obviously not much difference in price there and I guess this has been taken into account at least to some extent as it's not exactly a secret that being in the Europa league harms a teams chances in the league and for comparatively little (financial) reward. Also it's not like Spurs aren't used to competing in Europe by now and have a big enough squad to do so. Maybe there are some thoughts that the Europa League will be their best chance to be in the Champions League next season though with the competition for top the 4? I'm assuming the players, staff and fans will all believe they can make it though may not want to throw this back up option away. Any thoughts?

Interesting one, this.

Would they play their Europa League games at Wembley? Think that may sway it. 75,000 (?) at Wembley, even allowing for paying the rent, must come to a lot more income than 32,000 at WHL. And Daniel has a keen eye for looking after money.

We will definitely play our Europa games at Wembley. 

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/football/2016/11/24/mauricio-pochettino-confirms-tottenham-will-play-possible-europa/

“If we are in the Europa League we will play at Wembley. I don’t know where the rumour started [that Europa League matches might be switched back to White Hart Lane]. Never. We play at Wembley and we have to make it our home.”

Money-wise, surely being out of Europe and focusing on the league is going to get you more money long-term than a Europa League run?

[Doobs]

Moscow are 6/1 in various places away to Spurs in the Champions League on the 7th Dec. If Spurs lose they avoid the Europa league, do they really want to try that hard to be in that competition? It's a while away at the minute and I don't really know how the prices may change in the meantime but I wasn't expecting Spurs to be 1/2 for this game for this reason, though maybe I'm over estimating the likelihood of them fielding a much weakened side. I guess there's a chance Moscow won't overly want to take part in the Europa league this season too!  BFE is 28/5 so obviously not much difference in price there and I guess this has been taken into account at least to some extent as it's not exactly a secret that being in the Europa league harms a teams chances in the league and for comparatively little (financial) reward. Also it's not like Spurs aren't used to competing in Europe by now and have a big enough squad to do so. Maybe there are some thoughts that the Europa League will be their best chance to be in the Champions League next season though with the competition for top the 4? I'm assuming the players, staff and fans will all believe they can make it though may not want to throw this back up option away. Any thoughts?

Interesting one, this.

Would they play their Europa League games at Wembley? Think that may sway it. 75,000 (?) at Wembley, even allowing for paying the rent, must come to a lot more income than 32,000 at WHL. And Daniel has a keen eye for looking after money.

We will definitely play our Europa games at Wembley. 

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/football/2016/11/24/mauricio-pochettino-confirms-tottenham-will-play-possible-europa/

“If we are in the Europa League we will play at Wembley. I don’t know where the rumour started [that Europa League matches might be switched back to White Hart Lane]. Never. We play at Wembley and we have to make it our home.”

Money-wise, surely being out of Europe and focusing on the league is going to get you more money long-term than a Europa League run?

But the Europa League winners get a Champions League spot too, so it isn't that straightforward anymore.  If Spurs qualified and went for it, they'd be single figure odds for winning the Europa league.   They may make changes, but shouldn't send the reserves out?

[TightEnd]

In Hamilton

NZ set Pak 370 to win on the fifth day (overnight tonight).

the weather improved yesterday, and batting became easier.

NZ are 1.44 to win on the exchange.

[Ant040689]

In Hamilton

NZ set Pak 370 to win on the fifth day (overnight tonight).

the weather improved yesterday, and batting became easier.

NZ are 1.44 to win on the exchange.

Nice one for the sweat regardless of the result.

[Doobs]

Unlucky on the Rashid bet elsewhere Tighty.  Woke up this morning hearing he had 4 wickets, and thought it was weighed in.  Can't have been many times in the past when 4 wickets was a loser

[nuros]

Moscow are 6/1 in various places away to Spurs in the Champions League on the 7th Dec. If Spurs lose they avoid the Europa league, do they really want to try that hard to be in that competition? It's a while away at the minute and I don't really know how the prices may change in the meantime but I wasn't expecting Spurs to be 1/2 for this game for this reason, though maybe I'm over estimating the likelihood of them fielding a much weakened side. I guess there's a chance Moscow won't overly want to take part in the Europa league this season too!  BFE is 28/5 so obviously not much difference in price there and I guess this has been taken into account at least to some extent as it's not exactly a secret that being in the Europa league harms a teams chances in the league and for comparatively little (financial) reward. Also it's not like Spurs aren't used to competing in Europe by now and have a big enough squad to do so. Maybe there are some thoughts that the Europa League will be their best chance to be in the Champions League next season though with the competition for top the 4? I'm assuming the players, staff and fans will all believe they can make it though may not want to throw this back up option away. Any thoughts?

Interesting one, this.

Would they play their Europa League games at Wembley? Think that may sway it. 75,000 (?) at Wembley, even allowing for paying the rent, must come to a lot more income than 32,000 at WHL. And Daniel has a keen eye for looking after money.

We will definitely play our Europa games at Wembley. 

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/football/2016/11/24/mauricio-pochettino-confirms-tottenham-will-play-possible-europa/

“If we are in the Europa League we will play at Wembley. I don’t know where the rumour started [that Europa League matches might be switched back to White Hart Lane]. Never. We play at Wembley and we have to make it our home.”

Money-wise, surely being out of Europe and focusing on the league is going to get you more money long-term than a Europa League run?

But the Europa League winners get a Champions League spot too, so it isn't that straightforward anymore.  If Spurs qualified and went for it, they'd be single figure odds for winning the Europa league.   They may make changes, but shouldn't send the reserves out?

Hadn't taken into account that it was at Wembley (had forgotten their previous home UCL ties were there too!). I assume the pitch dimensions as well as the other more obvious stadium differences aren't the same as at WHL so any extra experience the players (and staff/fans) get at Wembley will help reduce the teething problems of playing at a different stadium in the PL next season. I guess the price is about right, thanks guys!

Well done as usual on the strictly bets Tal (Tighty's write up on the strictly thread was excellent too!), and GL/UL with the NZ/Rashid bets!

[exstream]

I'm sure someone mentioned Murray bring number one at end of year
5/4 with betfair?

[TightEnd]

good news and bad news

good news

Pakistan were 100/0 at lunch and started the last session 158/1. Lost 9 for 49 after tea to lose by 138 runs.

bad news

Anthony Jshua was not on the SPOTY shortlist so the series of bets placed in March are losers