It is the NFL draft tonight. Sadly this is the first time in many years i haven't written up a suite of bets because there have only been a handful of markets offered by UK firms and quite a few big firms none at all
I will put one on here which i think has prices the wrong way round.
The best price is 888 which the thread can use
sky have it too at u3.5 4/9 o3.5 13/8 but not on oddschecker
https://www.oddschecker.com/american-football/nfl-specials/nfl-draft/1st-round-quarterbacks I think quite confidently that o3.5 should be odds on
Trubisky could well go number 1 tonight to the Browns (suggestings by in the knows this morning) but shouldn't be picked lower than 10
Watson could go 4 to the Jags but should go top 15
Late in the first round there is a team like the Texans that have a fine team but no QB (still)
A team like the Chiefs isn't too happy with Alex Smith and has a pretty good team aside from that
rookie contracts are 4 years long
if you pick a player in the first round you get an option to keep a player on their rookie deal (cheap,salary cap advantages) for a fifth year. having a good qb on a rookie contract is a HUGE competitive advantage under a salary cap
this is MOST crucial for the quarterback position where young players takea bit oftime to mature,can frequentlyneed to back up a starter for a while
so a team wanting to develop a quarterback will often look to get one early. this includes teams trading back into the first round to a late spot to get that fifth year of eligibility for a QB
So candidates for being picked 20-32 are Pat Mahomes and Davis Webb. Texans Webb maybe, Chiefs Mahomes but bad teams from last year eg 49ers or Bears or Jets with no solid long term QB solution could well be getting back into the first round for one of these players late tonight
corroboration:
http://mmqb.si.com/mmqb/2017/03/01/nfl-draft-patrick-mahomes-ii-texas-tech-quarterback-first-round-prospect http://profootballtalk.nbcsports.com/2017/04/26/report-davis-webb-could-entice-teams-to-trade-into-late-first-round/just taking one mock draft this morning, means little in isolation but gives you a flavour of what tonight might look at
Click to see full-size image. |
inevitably there will be 5-6trades that mix this up,but you see the shape of it
Recommend: whatever we can get on i am confident, over 3.5 QBs in 1st round of the draft at 7/4 888sport