Tips for Tikay

[TightEnd]

PL summer spending breaks world record for one division in one transfer window with Southampton's signing of Wesley Hoedt. Nine days to go.

Click to see full-size image.

[TightEnd]

there is a good one in the championship at the moment

Brentford have most shots on target in the division and highest xG (haven't checked since saturday) and are bottom of the table.

Might be a bet in this. Brentford top 6 is 9.0 with the BV (were that price at start of season to be promoted) 5.6 on Exchange and mainly 6.0 to 7.0 elsewhere.

Thoughts?

there is another one developing

Ipswich v opposition shot stats:

Shots - 34-82
On-target - 11-25
In box – 22-48
xG – 4.30 – 8.00

Ipswich have W4-D0-L0 and scored 9 goals.

[HutchGF]

more



Arsenal/Bellerin pen not given,Lacazette a shoelace width offside

not ready to anoint Stoke as a mid-table side yet, any more than try to argue that Huddersfield will stay up or West Brom hit the top six

have to admit Jese looked good though and we know Butland is superb

going to be a long season if we knee-jerk after every result

I'm really interested in the application of the XG models to sports betting. Do you mind if I ask where you are getting these images from and if there's a trustworthy website where this data can be looked at?

[rinswun]

@11tegen11 on twitter is a great source of xG and pass maps data visuals.

[hhyftrftdr]

PP have paid out for Mayweather win already.

[TightEnd]

@caleygraphics is my source of xG graphs. Interpretation or misinterpretation and betting conclusions mine alone!

[atdc21]

Does anyone know of any odds for apprentice jump jockey championship?

[TightEnd]

Best bets at York this week are?

[hhyftrftdr]

Best bets at York this week are?

I'm away at the moment but the weather has been dreadful today and there are flash flood warnings for the city centre.
Just a heads up.

[Doobs]

Best bets at York this week are?

I'm away at the moment but the weather has been dreadful today and there are flash flood warnings for the city centre.
Just a heads up.

Going to be another Goodwood?  Doesn't make it easy when you get 8 defections from the handicaps.

[TightEnd]

Going change at York after deluge brings 6mm to Knavesmire http://bit.ly/2v54zBq

[dino1980]

"This is like hanging -3 on the Super Bowl and seeing the line move to -8."

Why Mayweather-McGregor is alarming Vegas oddsmakers

Great piece

http://www.espn.com/chalk/story/_/id/20407149/gambling-how-floyd-mayweather-conor-mcgregor-fight-alarming-vegas-oddmakers

I was just thinking, is there another way to approach this? McGregor is going to be totally outclassed clearly but Mayweather hasn't knocked anyone out for a decade. What will McGregor do? Constant holding and illegal hitting, throwing Mayweather? Might McGregor to be disqualified be a bet? Does that kinda save face for McGregor?
B365 have Mayweather by disqualification @ 12/1, I can't see the price on other sites.

I like this too - there must be a chance he throws a kick or some other illegal move to save face if he feels like he's being humiliated.

I don't watch boxing much, if ever these days, but what is normal here?  You see people getting warned and docked points, but there appears to be very few disqualifications.  Even when Tyson bit Holyfield's ear it took a while for him to be disqualified.

I'd say it is definitely more likely than in a "normal" fight, but we may have to move a long way from normal for 12/1 to be value.  Has anybody got any stats on the number of disqualifications in big fights?  
  

Some of this stuff requires a longer explanation but Doobs made an astute observation there. Plus this has more of a circus vibe than a hot cauldron big fight feel, enough not to be hunting DisQ stats.

edit- it's 10.0/11.0 on the machine

I didn't see that.  It is a fairly odd market.  The vast majority of the money has been done over 11, but someone is sat there wanting 5k at 11.5.  I have put a lay up, and will see if it is taken.  

Unibet are 14/1 according to oddschecker.

Consider the source etc but news today that McGregor would get sued if he elbows/kicks Mayweather/generally does anything that would lead to a disqualifcation: http://www.dailystar.co.uk/sport/ufc/635385/Dana-White-Reveals-How-Much-Conor-McGregor-Must-Pay-If-He-Elbows-Floyd-Mayweather

[arbboy]

https://www.si.com/nba/2017/08/22/kyrie-irving-isaiah-thomas-cavaliers-celtics-trade-grades-analysis

Blockbuster trade in the NBA.  Big two in the East swop their high scoring guards.  Lebron's main running buddy and provider moves to the Celtics in return Lebron gets Celtic's huge scorer.  Interesting trade not sure who wins because of it.

https://www.oddschecker.com/basketball/nba/nba-championship/winner

Markets seem to think it suits Boston next season.  It probably does slightly as the draft pick the Cavs get after next season is potentially very valuable. 

[Karabiner]

The going at York is now good to soft/soft in places - it was good to firm this morning.

[arbboy]

Huddesfield on the slide tonight for the EFL cup game.  Stoke being heavily backed.  Probably worth considering for the ante post stuff if you are not involved yet.