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Author Topic: Tips for Tikay  (Read 13332604 times)
nirvana
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« Reply #134400 on: October 15, 2018, 08:29:08 PM »


Interesting prices on the game tonight, it seems the market is coming round to the idea that England are bad. I still think Spain -2 at 5’s is OK though.


I'm glad your knowledge of politics etc Wink

:-) Crazy game imo.

Haha, thought it looked a good bet but I genuinely know nothing about betting
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kukushkin88
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« Reply #134401 on: October 15, 2018, 08:33:06 PM »


Interesting prices on the game tonight, it seems the market is coming round to the idea that England are bad. I still think Spain -2 at 5’s is OK though.


I'm glad your knowledge of politics etc Wink

:-) Crazy game imo.

Haha, thought it looked a good bet but I genuinely know nothing about betting

I’d do it again I think. Just an amazing score line though and it’s nice to see England looking good.
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kukushkin88
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« Reply #134402 on: October 15, 2018, 08:34:17 PM »

Especially pleased for Sterling.
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nirvana
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« Reply #134403 on: October 15, 2018, 08:47:50 PM »


Interesting prices on the game tonight, it seems the market is coming round to the idea that England are bad. I still think Spain -2 at 5’s is OK though.


I'm glad your knowledge of politics etc Wink

:-) Crazy game imo.

Haha, thought it looked a good bet but I genuinely know nothing about betting

I’d do it again I think. Just an amazing score line though and it’s nice to see England looking good.

Rare for me to watch an England game outside of major tournaments but fancied watching Spain, glad I did for different reasons now
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Doobs
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« Reply #134404 on: October 15, 2018, 08:51:26 PM »


Interesting prices on the game tonight, it seems the market is coming round to the idea that England are bad. I still think Spain -2 at 5’s is OK though.


I'm glad your knowledge of politics etc Wink

:-) Crazy game imo.

Haha, thought it looked a good bet but I genuinely know nothing about betting

I’d do it again I think. Just an amazing score line though and it’s nice to see England looking good.
Having a better night than me.  Tried watching it on  now TV and my account has failed.  Seems I can watch chick flicks and shite drama series, but can't watch this.  Of course failed to get my bet on, as I have spent an hour wrestling with this.  Have tilt cancelled the sky sports subscription.  

It is still 0-0 yeah?  

Am very pleased for Sterling too obv.
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Most of the bets placed so far seem more like hopeful punts rather than value spots
Karabiner
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« Reply #134405 on: October 15, 2018, 08:54:36 PM »


Interesting prices on the game tonight, it seems the market is coming round to the idea that England are bad. I still think Spain -2 at 5’s is OK though.


I'm glad your knowledge of politics etc Wink

:-) Crazy game imo.

Haha, thought it looked a good bet but I genuinely know nothing about betting

I’d do it again I think. Just an amazing score line though and it’s nice to see England looking good.

Rare for me to watch an England game outside of major tournaments but fancied watching Spain, glad I did for different reasons now

Me too - there was nothing else on and I don't like to watch Breaking Bad until I've eaten Wink
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« Reply #134406 on: October 18, 2018, 06:23:25 PM »

Hi guys, new member but longtime lurker so thanks for many tips! I posted these in the nfl thread but thought i'd see what you guys think...

Two bets tonight is Cards vs Broncos for me, both David Johnson related.

1- Over 17.5 rush attempts 5/6 on Bet fair.  Last 3 games DJ has had 18, 18, 22 @vikings @49s and home Seahawks.  Tonight game is a pick em and will be close affair and both teams should be able to sustain drives.  Broncos are dead last 32/32 against the run this season and opposition averaging just shy of 25 carries per game vs them.  Cardinals will lean on DJ as passing game is in bottom 5 of league.

2- David Johnson- 2+tds price boosted to 5/1.  Of his 39 starts hes had 11/39 2tds performances, given reasons above against worst run defence in league so far, at home I think this is good spot for him to continue.
« Last Edit: October 18, 2018, 06:37:18 PM by tikay » Logged
horseplayer
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« Reply #134407 on: October 18, 2018, 06:32:04 PM »

Welcome suri

As this is your first tip I believe it will be autobet.

What sports do you bet?

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suriarte
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« Reply #134408 on: October 18, 2018, 07:26:21 PM »

Thanks for reply Horseplayer!

Mainly NFL and occasionally football.
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Tal
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« Reply #134409 on: October 18, 2018, 09:22:19 PM »

Welcome aboard!

Hi guys, new member but longtime lurker so thanks for many tips! I posted these in the nfl thread but thought i'd see what you guys think...

Two bets tonight is Cards vs Broncos for me, both David Johnson related.

1- Over 17.5 rush attempts 5/6 on Bet fair.  Last 3 games DJ has had 18, 18, 22 @vikings @49s and home Seahawks.  Tonight game is a pick em and will be close affair and both teams should be able to sustain drives.  Broncos are dead last 32/32 against the run this season and opposition averaging just shy of 25 carries per game vs them.  Cardinals will lean on DJ as passing game is in bottom 5 of league.

2- David Johnson- 2+tds price boosted to 5/1.  Of his 39 starts hes had 11/39 2tds performances, given reasons above against worst run defence in league so far, at home I think this is good spot for him to continue.

Two terrible teams against the run, but both decent against the pass. You'd think that would make it obvious but the Broncos now throw the ball three times as much as they run it and the Cardinals have a new center and a banged up OLine.

Both bets look good (though I've been simple and played under on total points), so I've managed to secure £20 on Johnson 2+ touchdowns with Patrick Parr at 11/2 for Fred.
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« Reply #134410 on: October 18, 2018, 11:51:39 PM »

I'd like to suggest a couple of Premier League top scorer bets, both more for the place part but both at 100/1.

Callum Wilson 100/1 (4 1/4) on Betfred (OP says that's all good).
Danny Ings 100/1 (4 1/4) on Bet365 (thread can have up to £20 ew with me if they want it)

Of the players who've played at least 50% of the minutes so far, both are in the top five for xGp90. Salah (0.78, 7.5/1), Ings (0.78), Vardy (0.74, 40/1), Aguero (0.72, 3/1), Wilson (0.69). Ings has penalties in his locker, Wilson does not (it's possible he gets them back if King misses. Edit: this is false if Stanislas is on the pitch), but it's Wilson I'm more bullish on.

Wilson:
All this may be info that the bookies are already working with, but B'Mouth as an attacking team has steadily improved in the second half of last season and the first eight games of this. They're now an above average team for the PL in terms of xG p90 (see attached graph) and are playing a different style this season, counter-attacking more, using the pace and passing ability of Wilson, King, Fraser and Brooks. Lewis Cook, their best passer, was dropped, and Brooks has taken on the mantle of ball progression from midfield, whilst the middle two provide a solid base (although Cook has started the last two).
Wilson is fourth for SITB this season (behind Aguero, Mitrovic and Kane) and top for Big Chances (an opta term for a chance that should reasonably expect to result in a goal) and fourth for touches in the penalty box.  Team wise, B'Mouth are =5th for SITB, 3rd for xG, 2nd for big chances and, if we want to use actual goals, then 4th.
The downside is that Wilson isn't taking a higher volume of shots than last season, so the increase in xG is due to the fact that he's taking higher quality shots and that B'Mouth are creating higher quality shots. This is based on a smallish sample and B'Mouth has had an easy start to the season so this may regress (https://twitter.com/MarkTaylor0/status/1050301487530827776) and Wilson's injury history also needs to be factored into the price.

Ings:
Unlike Wilson, Ings good numbers are coming from the fact that he's been a bit of a shot monster since moving on loan to Southampton. 3.85 p90 is elite level stuff. He's fifth both for shots in the box and total attempts. Like Wilson he's underperformed xG so far and Saints aren't as bad an attacking unit as you'd assume. They are actually third for total attempts this season, 7th for SITB, 8th for xG and 9th for big chances. Not the narrative expected from a Mark Hughes team.

We're playing for place money here, with Aguero, Salah, Kane almost locks for the top four if they stay fit. But, I like the price in a race against Vardy, Sterling, Lacazette et al.

Attached is a graph of teams xG and xGA over 17/18 and into this season. 0.0 is the league average so anything above that line is above league average. These are in 10 week buckets and not my own work, but courtesy of a friend on an FPL forum.
« Last Edit: October 19, 2018, 12:12:20 AM by dino1980 » Logged
hhyftrftdr
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« Reply #134411 on: October 18, 2018, 11:51:53 PM »

Thank christ proper football is almost back.

When was the last time united were out to 100/1 to win the league only 8 games into a season? Pretty much all major firms are 100/1 apart from one who has them at 66s.....I guess the truth is just too hard to take for bald.

Teeks don't forget your credit with me. I'll ship it to Tommy Robinson's holiday fund legal fund if we can't find a good home for it.
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tikay
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« Reply #134412 on: October 19, 2018, 12:14:35 AM »


Evening (?) lads, have to be brief for now, up due to be up at 5am, with a tough day to follow, so will reply to all properly later on Friday or Saturday morning.

For now....

1) Welcome aboard suriarte, & GL with the maiden bet.

2) Tal Bloke - yes please on the £20 bet on Johnsonn. Will send the cash tomorrow (well, Friday).

3) Nick - great wrote up, thank you. I have placed the bet on Wilson (£20 EW @ 100/1, qtr top 4 with BetFred), & yes please, can you place the Ings bet for us, & I'll ship the £40 to you on Friday.   

4) Fat Bloke. You give so much as a penny to TR & I'll out you Next Door. That's 84% certain, Sky News said, so it must be true.


For now, night all, gotta go, I'm buggered. 
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dino1980
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« Reply #134413 on: October 19, 2018, 12:32:50 AM »

Hi Tony,

Ings bet placed, we can settle up whenever suits, end of the month, end of the year, end of the season. No rush.
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kukushkin88
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« Reply #134414 on: October 19, 2018, 07:09:22 AM »

Welcome aboard!

Hi guys, new member but longtime lurker so thanks for many tips! I posted these in the nfl thread but thought i'd see what you guys think...

Two bets tonight is Cards vs Broncos for me, both David Johnson related.

1- Over 17.5 rush attempts 5/6 on Bet fair.  Last 3 games DJ has had 18, 18, 22 @vikings @49s and home Seahawks.  Tonight game is a pick em and will be close affair and both teams should be able to sustain drives.  Broncos are dead last 32/32 against the run this season and opposition averaging just shy of 25 carries per game vs them.  Cardinals will lean on DJ as passing game is in bottom 5 of league.

2- David Johnson- 2+tds price boosted to 5/1.  Of his 39 starts hes had 11/39 2tds performances, given reasons above against worst run defence in league so far, at home I think this is good spot for him to continue.

Two terrible teams against the run, but both decent against the pass. You'd think that would make it obvious but the Broncos now throw the ball three times as much as they run it and the Cardinals have a new center and a banged up OLine.
It’s
Both bets look good (though I've been simple and played under on total points), so I've managed to secure £20 on Johnson 2+ touchdowns with Patrick Parr at 11/2 for Fred.


Morning all, The number of carries bet was certainly unlucky. It’s basically impossible for it to win when they’re so far behind so early. I’d say it’s clear in hindsight that they went in to the game intending to hand him the ball 25+ times. Turned in to the Von Miller and Chubb show, that certainly wasn’t their plan. Keep the bet recommends coming.
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