I am hesitant to use the word certainty
but isn't the opportunity here to back a really good thing at 4/5?
On Strictly week after week Dooley, Sugg and Tozer get masses more votes than others, it is said. never been in bottom 2.
Roberts is the best dancer in the competition but not popular. she is a ringer and has been in the bottom two last two weeks, surviving with the MOF against weaker competitors
its still judges vote for the bottom two after a dance off and that dance off vote is off dancing ability (next weeks' final votes are public only so its on popularity which is why Dooley wins much like the best dancer has been beaten by the "journey" stories in previous years)
So isn't Steadman a roaring good thing to go tomorrow night? Consistently lowest scorer of the final five couples
https://www.oddschecker.com/tv/strictly-come-dancing/next-eliminationI wrote this yesterday:
Strictly: next elimination in the semi final
This is always a fascinating market. No, really, it is.
All series, the bookies have priced it up based on who will mess up most in their dance and include some thoughts on how popular they are with the public. Rankings on judges' score get added to rankings on public vote. And when the bottom two combined scores end up in the dance off, all you need to work out is who ups their game/buckles late at night (will be 10pm ish on sat night, after a long week).
This week, the couples dance two dances (the two remaining ones they've yet to dance). The dance off will enable them to choose which dance they do of the two.
This means a couple that did one crap one and one very good one will generally beat a couple that did two good ones.
Looking at training footage this week...
Ashley does Paso and that looks superb. It suits her: she can perform and do balletic shapes with her arms and body that will really sell well. She then gets an American Smooth to a classic, Ain't That a Kick in the Head. I don't rate her footwork at all, but the judges love her. She will have a 38 minimum in one of them.
Faye's been excellent of late and I think she could well get a big score this week. Argentine Tango enables her to use her wonderful legs to good effect (the footage shows she puts her foot on Giovanni's shoulder while in hold - gulp!). Samba is hard but she has a neat hip action, though I suspect the Argentine Tango will score higher. 38 should be achievable.
Stacey's viennese waltz has the smell of a 40/40 to me. Her footwork is immaculate (with all-important big strides). She has swing and sway (which Craig loves). She also gets the charleston, which is the easiest dance (even though she's been struggling to remember it this week - don't expect that to be an issue by tomorrow night). She's fav to win for a reason.
Lauren has tango (the ballroom tango), to Nutbush City Limits (absurd song choice by the producers - very stompy and too quick). She doesn't have the power and her partner is not a good tango dancer. She also gets a samba to Rock the Boat, which is sticky in the training footage, though I suspect she's better at it than what we have been shown, as AJ just commented on it on It Takes Two to suggest she's done it a lot better. She doesn't have a 38 in her. Would require a judge swindle. More likely, she needs the public to vote for her.
This leaves Joe. He has the viennese waltz (not great, but ok) and Argentine Tango (to Red Right Hand if you're a
Peaky Blinders Nick Cave fan). Both are fine, but he's not scoring big tens for these. He needs to get to the final and then he has a puncher's chance, but this is going to need public support to lock it up. He could easily find himself in the dance off.
If she gets the public vote to finish outside the bottom two, Joe could be in trouble, as he would be heads up against Ashley the Ringer (who's likely to have a 38+ there) or Faye (which could see argentine tango v argentine tango and there's no contest). He's going to struggle against both.
6/1 with ladbrokes is not a bad price for a small play. His drift in price in recent weeks might mean he's not had big votes, but if he makes the final and goes to 3/1, he will be a bet.
One final point: lauren will be in the bottom two with the judges' scores, so will need to be the most or second most popular with the public to avoid the dance off. A tie with the judges is less likely because of them dancing twice. It seems unlikely that she is most popular tomorrow, so she will do well to avoid the dance off. Then she's probably toast.
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10/11 seems a very big price. I wouldn't want to lay 4/6.
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