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Author Topic: Tips for Tikay  (Read 8614080 times)
Doobs
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« Reply #137370 on: June 17, 2020, 03:11:58 PM »

Bell Rock and Marky's in the next. 

Am a mug Marky follower it seems.   GL all.

Tikay's lot are 5 places in the Windsor Castle so got Chief Little Hawk e/w at 5/1.  Seems they have cut it now, but guess it might go 5/1 again later.
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« Reply #137371 on: June 17, 2020, 04:32:31 PM »

Good luck to the punter remaining in the ITV7 - Collide for the £100k win, and it's got every chance
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« Reply #137372 on: June 27, 2020, 12:49:25 AM »

The potential top four 'playoff' last day fixtures of

Chelsea vs Wolves, and

Leicester vs Man United

I think could offer a circumstantial edge on the game of whichever team has the advantage of playing last on the penultimate weekend.

I think the best possibility here is that Liverpool vs Chelsea will be last, as the biggest game, and to bet on a Chelsea win, as soon as the odds come out. If Chelsea, with Wolves having already played, are 1 or 2 points clear (with  Wolves likely to catch the goal difference), they will have an unusual circumstance going into the penultimate game at Anfield. They will know that a point is no good at all to them, leaving them in exactly the same situation as if they lose, of having to avoid defeat to Wolves on the last day. So, they will have the information advantage of playing last, and will know that they might as well play to win at Anfield.

I'm making no judgement about the bookies' pricing when they release the odds soon, apart from that it would be correct, but correct without factoring in this consideration. Thus, getting best price could swing the bookies' usual 2% edge heavily in the other direction, if you hit the circumstances where Chelsea are indeed playing last on the penultimate weekend, and know that 1 point is as good as 0 points. I'm assuming the early odds will have them as about 11/2, and this would become very attractive if they were going all out to win.

Of course you may get unlucky, and have Chelsea, say, 3 points clear, knowing that they specifically need a draw, but the swing in probabilities in the 'need to win' scenario is by far the bigger, given how the opposition would usually approach a match at Anfield.

Of the other possibilities, I think there could be some, but less, value in betting a United draw vs West Ham on the penultimate game. This would be if they got to play after Leicester, and were, for example, 3 points behind Leicester. (Leicester have far superior GD). That would give United the scenario that winning would be no better than drawing, both leaving them having to beat Leicester on the last day, and so they may have a different to usual approach to a home fixture against West Ham, knowing they simply have to avoid defeat.

But that's more tenuous. I think they value is getting the early odds on a Chelsea win at Anfield, and hoping Chelsea go into it knowing that a point is no good to them.


(This is of course also the reason why the Premier League and Sky shouldn't have different kick off times on the penultimate weekend, and I think it may come back to bite them this season with the potential last day playoffs)
« Last Edit: June 27, 2020, 01:01:21 AM by easypickings » Logged
easypickings
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« Reply #137373 on: June 27, 2020, 12:58:02 AM »

Penultimate weekend fixtures are

United vs West Ham
Liverpool vs Chelsea ( surely going as Super Sunday, and therefore probably last)
Wolves vs Palace
Tottenham vs Leicester
« Last Edit: June 27, 2020, 01:00:20 AM by easypickings » Logged
Peter-27
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« Reply #137374 on: July 02, 2020, 09:29:00 PM »

Some Austrian GP selections:

Fastest Qualifier - Lewis Hamilton @ 15/8 - based on the pre-season data, I'm happy to take 15/8 on Lewis here as I see his only real threat to be Valtteri Bottas. 10 points.

https://www.oddschecker.com/motorsport/formula-1/austrian-grand-prix/fastest-qualifier

Points Finish - Esteban Ocon @ 6/4 (Hills only) - Has scored points in his last two races at this circuit, and he should certainly have the car underneath him to do it again. 12 points.

https://www.oddschecker.com/motorsport/formula-1/austrian-grand-prix/points-finish

Top Six Finish - Esteban Ocon @ 17/2 (365 only) - Similar reasoning to above, the price seems high to me. 5 points.

https://www.oddschecker.com/motorsport/formula-1/austrian-grand-prix/top-6-finish

Race Winner - Valtteri Bottas @ 6/1 EW (1/5 1-3) - A magnificent price for someone to "podiumvate" in the quickest car. Fill your boots with this one, 20 points EW.

Race Winner - Sergio Perez @ 66/1 EW (1/5 1-3) - Highly competitive in pre-season testing. Not realistically in contention for the win, but they have an outside chance of scoring a podium. My pre-season analysis had them as the third fastest team, possibly even second fastest. Admittedly the break will have worked against them in terms of development, but I like the price. 5 points EW.

https://www.oddschecker.com/motorsport/formula-1/austrian-grand-prix/winner
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« Reply #137375 on: July 03, 2020, 12:06:28 AM »

Some Austrian GP selections:

Fastest Qualifier - Lewis Hamilton @ 15/8 - based on the pre-season data, I'm happy to take 15/8 on Lewis here as I see his only real threat to be Valtteri Bottas. 10 points.

https://www.oddschecker.com/motorsport/formula-1/austrian-grand-prix/fastest-qualifier

Points Finish - Esteban Ocon @ 6/4 (Hills only) - Has scored points in his last two races at this circuit, and he should certainly have the car underneath him to do it again. 12 points.

https://www.oddschecker.com/motorsport/formula-1/austrian-grand-prix/points-finish

Top Six Finish - Esteban Ocon @ 17/2 (365 only) - Similar reasoning to above, the price seems high to me. 5 points.

https://www.oddschecker.com/motorsport/formula-1/austrian-grand-prix/top-6-finish

Race Winner - Valtteri Bottas @ 6/1 EW (1/5 1-3) - A magnificent price for someone to "podiumvate" in the quickest car. Fill your boots with this one, 20 points EW.

Race Winner - Sergio Perez @ 66/1 EW (1/5 1-3) - Highly competitive in pre-season testing. Not realistically in contention for the win, but they have an outside chance of scoring a podium. My pre-season analysis had them as the third fastest team, possibly even second fastest. Admittedly the break will have worked against them in terms of development, but I like the price. 5 points EW.

https://www.oddschecker.com/motorsport/formula-1/austrian-grand-prix/winner


Any love for bottas/max/albon season bets for the title with the shortened season?

Also, how badly affected will Ferrari be with going back to pre season car & going down a different development route?
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« Reply #137376 on: July 03, 2020, 08:19:47 PM »

Some Austrian GP selections:

Fastest Qualifier - Lewis Hamilton @ 15/8 - based on the pre-season data, I'm happy to take 15/8 on Lewis here as I see his only real threat to be Valtteri Bottas. 10 points.

https://www.oddschecker.com/motorsport/formula-1/austrian-grand-prix/fastest-qualifier

Points Finish - Esteban Ocon @ 6/4 (Hills only) - Has scored points in his last two races at this circuit, and he should certainly have the car underneath him to do it again. 12 points.

https://www.oddschecker.com/motorsport/formula-1/austrian-grand-prix/points-finish

Top Six Finish - Esteban Ocon @ 17/2 (365 only) - Similar reasoning to above, the price seems high to me. 5 points.

https://www.oddschecker.com/motorsport/formula-1/austrian-grand-prix/top-6-finish

Race Winner - Valtteri Bottas @ 6/1 EW (1/5 1-3) - A magnificent price for someone to "podiumvate" in the quickest car. Fill your boots with this one, 20 points EW.

Race Winner - Sergio Perez @ 66/1 EW (1/5 1-3) - Highly competitive in pre-season testing. Not realistically in contention for the win, but they have an outside chance of scoring a podium. My pre-season analysis had them as the third fastest team, possibly even second fastest. Admittedly the break will have worked against them in terms of development, but I like the price. 5 points EW.

https://www.oddschecker.com/motorsport/formula-1/austrian-grand-prix/winner


Any love for bottas/max/albon season bets for the title with the shortened season?

Also, how badly affected will Ferrari be with going back to pre season car & going down a different development route?

A likely (but not yet confirmed) shorter season certainly plays into the hands of the "long shot" title contenders, but realistically I don't see how anyone outside Lewis/Valtteri can win the title this year. Their advantage seems insurmountable to me, possibly even larger than I originally anticipated on the basis of what we saw today. I do have some money on Valtteri to win the title at 6-1 EW (top two) and you can currently get 7-1, so there is some value to be had. 9/2 or 5/1 feels more in the correct range IMO.

That's disastrous for Ferrari with the shortened season; it's not even as if their car pre-season had much pace either. My pre-season analysis had them finishing 3rd overall, but potentially starting out the season as the 5th fastest team. Looking at the race simulations from today, I make Ferrari (at least in the hands of Leclerc) 4th fastest on the medium tyres and 6th fastest on the soft tyres. Vettel was even further back. It's going to be a challenging season for them I suspect.
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« Reply #137377 on: July 03, 2020, 09:42:43 PM »

Some Austrian GP selections:

Fastest Qualifier - Lewis Hamilton @ 15/8 - based on the pre-season data, I'm happy to take 15/8 on Lewis here as I see his only real threat to be Valtteri Bottas. 10 points.

https://www.oddschecker.com/motorsport/formula-1/austrian-grand-prix/fastest-qualifier

Points Finish - Esteban Ocon @ 6/4 (Hills only) - Has scored points in his last two races at this circuit, and he should certainly have the car underneath him to do it again. 12 points.

https://www.oddschecker.com/motorsport/formula-1/austrian-grand-prix/points-finish

Top Six Finish - Esteban Ocon @ 17/2 (365 only) - Similar reasoning to above, the price seems high to me. 5 points.

https://www.oddschecker.com/motorsport/formula-1/austrian-grand-prix/top-6-finish

Race Winner - Valtteri Bottas @ 6/1 EW (1/5 1-3) - A magnificent price for someone to "podiumvate" in the quickest car. Fill your boots with this one, 20 points EW.

Race Winner - Sergio Perez @ 66/1 EW (1/5 1-3) - Highly competitive in pre-season testing. Not realistically in contention for the win, but they have an outside chance of scoring a podium. My pre-season analysis had them as the third fastest team, possibly even second fastest. Admittedly the break will have worked against them in terms of development, but I like the price. 5 points EW.

https://www.oddschecker.com/motorsport/formula-1/austrian-grand-prix/winner


Any love for bottas/max/albon season bets for the title with the shortened season?

Also, how badly affected will Ferrari be with going back to pre season car & going down a different development route?

A likely (but not yet confirmed) shorter season certainly plays into the hands of the "long shot" title contenders, but realistically I don't see how anyone outside Lewis/Valtteri can win the title this year. Their advantage seems insurmountable to me, possibly even larger than I originally anticipated on the basis of what we saw today. I do have some money on Valtteri to win the title at 6-1 EW (top two) and you can currently get 7-1, so there is some value to be had. 9/2 or 5/1 feels more in the correct range IMO.

That's disastrous for Ferrari with the shortened season; it's not even as if their car pre-season had much pace either. My pre-season analysis had them finishing 3rd overall, but potentially starting out the season as the 5th fastest team. Looking at the race simulations from today, I make Ferrari (at least in the hands of Leclerc) 4th fastest on the medium tyres and 6th fastest on the soft tyres. Vettel was even further back. It's going to be a challenging season for them I suspect.

Wow! Didn't realise it could be that bad for Ferrari!! Thank's for your insights
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« Reply #137378 on: July 04, 2020, 10:55:36 AM »

What Peter said on Bottas.  Any e/w bottas 9/2 first 2 or 4/1 first 3 still looks a bit of value though you haven't long to put it on
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« Reply #137379 on: July 04, 2020, 11:04:16 AM »

The Oaks looks a cracking e/w race today.

I have backed Ennistymon, Passion and Bahrani Star.  The last two are likely plodders, but the shape of the race makes place terms so good.  Frankly Darling got a much better run than Ennistymon at Ascot.  The track is very different, so the winning margin, and the fact Frankly Darling looked much more impressive may not count for much.

I think you can back pretty much any outside the front 2 each way and still get value.
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« Reply #137380 on: July 04, 2020, 11:38:36 AM »

The Oaks couldn't have a better EW shape but I'd be inclined to dump most of the win parts, keep the places and hope one of the big two bombs out.

Good old Shy offering a fifth three spots on the 4-1 the field, 17-runner Derby.
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« Reply #137381 on: July 05, 2020, 01:42:54 PM »

Hamilton has been demoted to 5th place on the grid after speeding under yellow flags in qualifying. His win price has dropped to 5/2 giving us the option of hedging against our Bottas position which could guarantee profit (assuming you got 6/1 on Bottas, and a Mercedes wins). I don't think I'm going to do this personally, but I could be convinced if you guys think it's the correct thing to do?

My estimated percentage chances of winning (excluding "others"):

Bottas: 45%
Hamilton: 45%
Verstappen 10%
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« Reply #137382 on: July 05, 2020, 03:57:24 PM »

What an incredible race, no-one could have predicted that madness. Phew!

For the bets:

- Lewis did not get pole position.

- Ocon scored points, but didn't finish top six. Actually his pace was quite poor out there and he benefitted significantly from the chaos around him. To my surprise, it looks like he'll take a few races to get back up to speed after missing last season.

- Perez very close to securing a podium, but ended up only sixth. His pace in the last quarter of the race was poor, potentially suffering with tyre heat-up problems under SC. I expect Racing Point will represent good value for next weekend, the car is fundamentally quick.

- Valtteri Bottas won the race at 6/1 to put me in quite a large profit overall.
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« Reply #137383 on: July 05, 2020, 04:40:00 PM »

Nice one Peter.
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« Reply #137384 on: July 06, 2020, 12:27:58 AM »

Top tipping Peter   thumbs up
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