Hey everyone,
Turkish GP weekend, and these bets are coming quite late as I needed time to reflect and understand what exactly is happening at this event. Certainly my criteria for picking out value spots has become drastically different for this race.
For those that don’t know, the Istanbul Park circuit was resurfaced recently. When that happens, it is normal for the track surface to be extremely slippery as all the chemical bonding agents and oils get pushed to the surface of the tarmac as the asphalt settles. Usually this process is done several months before any track action to ensure the racing is not impacted, but due to covid, this resurfacing was carried out just over a week ago. The recent resurfacing combined with low temperatures has made the track conditions unbelievably difficult for the drivers this weekend so far – and the rain today made it increasingly challenging too, almost a lottery at times. It really is a case of just staying on track to be near the top of the timesheets.
Anyway, bet suggestions:
Race Winner – Alexander Albon & Charles Leclerc @ 20/1 & 70/1 respectively – both EW 1-2 1/3. These may seem like odd picks but there’s some logic to them. I have a very good idea of who is going to perform well tomorrow, the problem is that there are so many scenarios depending on the weather conditions. Fortunately though, all the forecasts I have seen appear to converge to the same conclusion; low chance of rain (circa 10%) and low temperatures. In this scenario, I expect Max Verstappen will run away with the win at the front, but the price is rubbish. However, my two picks here are extremely appealing at those prices for second place. Both looked strong all weekend before the heavy rain in qualifying, and Alex has the added advantage of the Red Bull being able to generate heat into its tyres much more easily than any other team. Suggest 6 points total on Alex EW and 14 points total on Charles EW. Meanwhile, I am also speculatively betting five points total EW on
Lance Stroll &
Sergio Perez (both 20/1) to win the race because they are over-priced given their grid spots. However, unless it rains tomorrow, I do expect them to struggle.
https://www.oddschecker.com/motorsport/formula-1/turkish-grand-prix/winnerTop Six Finish – Charles Leclerc @ 5/2. If it doesn’t rain, he will be up there. Suggest 20 points. Also having five points on
Pierre Gasly @ 3/1 (competitive in the dry conditions) and
Daniil Kvyat @ 16/1 (massively over-priced).
https://www.oddschecker.com/motorsport/formula-1/turkish-grand-prix/top-6-finishPoints Finish – Kevin Magnussen @ 8/1+. His aggressive style should suit the slippery conditions, and 8/1 feels a bit too high. Would need a few retirements up ahead. Five points.
https://www.oddschecker.com/motorsport/formula-1/turkish-grand-prix/points-finishI am going to have money on eight drivers tomorrow which feels a bit crazy. However these track conditions have provided excellent opportunities. I have (legally
) been betting on F1 for 10 years now and this is the most challenging market assessment I have ever had to do by some margin.
Race start is 10:10AM UK time.
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