Independence Referendum

[Jon MW]

I found the BBC analysis of whether Scotland would be better or worse off

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-16548644

It's a long article with lots in it - so prob not worth the effort unless the subject particularly interests you

A few highlights:

BBC
The answer is simple - of course it can.

But at what cost to its public finances?

In other words, what might have to change?

Almost every aspect of this debate is contested. ...

The debate often portrays Scotland as requiring a "subsidy".

But as Stephanie Flanders pointed out, the Treasury's regular requirement of funding from the bond markets is no different, and it's that familiar feature of Britain's public finances - a deficit.

The most recent figures, using Treasury and Scottish government data, show the deficit on Scottish spending over expenditure is a smaller share of gross domestic product than that of the UK as a whole.
That last line basically has all the relevant information that all of the above article has once it's been stripped of it's superfluous padding and irrelevant facts

Offshore oil and gas

That requires a large share of oil and gas revenue.

Without oil and gas, the Scottish deficit looks very large

But an independent Scotland could expect to have more than 80% of the UK's oil and gas revenue, subject to negotiation with the Treasury.

With that, the public spending deficit looks more manageable.

But it's often a deficit, nonetheless.

The volatile price of oil means volatile income. The trend is clearly for the volume of oil and gas production to fall, though that is partly offset by higher average prices, higher tax rates, and so buoyant revenues.

So Scotland's public finances could break even some years, but there's little sign of large oil revenue surpluses to pay off debt and build up a national trust fund. that's why the comparison to Norway is false

That's what the Norwegians have successfully done with their offshore oil revenue.

Debt and liabilities
Scotland would be expected to take on a share of the UK's national debt. Just how big a share is one of many negotiations that could be expected between administrations in Edinburgh and London.

Alex Salmond said this week it should be based on either share of UK GDP or share of population.

These proportions are not far apart, so with the way public sector net borrowing looks now, the Scottish portion of it would be around £80bn, and continuing to head north.

Scotland would have to service that debt by issuing bonds.

It would have its own credit rating, and with no credit history and political leaders who want to turn on the spending taps to get out of recession, the bond markets may not be impressed.

Europe and trade
The shape of the Scottish economy depends heavily on its future trading relationship.

The country starts within the European Union, and the continent would remain a major trading partner.

There's no precedent for a European member state splitting and creating two new members.

Would Scotland stay within the EU, and if so, what conditions would other members impose?

There's a lively debate about how that would work.

In short, nobody knows.

Some argue Scotland would retain the UK's opt-out from being required to join the euro currency. Others say it's an automatic requirement for new applicants.

The SNP proposes sticking with sterling until Scots choose, by referendum, to join the euro.

His problem, in explaining this policy, is that remaining with sterling leaves the Treasury and Bank of England in London to set Scotland's monetary policy, while having no influence over it.

...

However, joining the euro gives an independent government at Holyrood only limited influence in Frankfurt, where decisions are made for a much larger currency zone.

In or out of the EU, it seems unlikely Scotland would lose its access to markets.

Its most important foreign market, by far, would be the rest of the UK.

How well that relationship works politically depends on how the negotiations go.

But within the EU, neither side would be allowed to put blocks on trade.

There would, however, be costs for business. Separate taxation regimes would require separate accounting for those companies operating on both sides of the Cheviots.

And one of the immediate concerns, at least for some businesses, is the cost of political risk while Scotland's constitutional future remains unclear.

Critics of the Scottish government warn that will put off investment, if indeed it's not doing so already. But that argument lacks evidence.

Those sceptical about independence are keeping their heads down, at least until it becomes a more realistic prospect.

And Scottish ministers respond to this warning from UK ministers with a list of diverse, prestige investments in recent months by major international companies.

...

Finance would continue to be significant, not only because RBS and Lloyds are major players in the Scottish market and as employers, but because there are many other financial companies located in Scotland, to take advantage of the country's financial skills.

It would be open to an independent Scotland and the rest of the UK to agree on sharing regulatory regimes, if only to retain the attractiveness of cross-border trading, and to provide a subsidy mechanism for Scotland's potential in renewable energy.

...
Another pillar of the Scottish economy is its education, with universities drivers of innovation and dealers of a strong suit in high level skills.

As with so much of this debate, the future of that sector under independence depends on the decisions made by future Scottish governments. Even if tuition remains free to students, what would be the implications for quality and standards over the long run?

And what about the disproportionately large share of UK research council grants that are won by Scottish academics?

There's another funding gap.

...
So the conclusion is, perhaps disappointingly: We don't know how the economy might fare in an independent Scotland.

It depends on the decisions of future governments at Holyrood, particularly as they balance the tension between lower-tax, low regulation, business-friendly policies and, on the other hand, for a strong social contract with state provision universal.

If political rhetoric and voting patterns are any guide, Scots prefer the latter.

A high priority would surely be avoidance of too much dislocation.

This is not a proposed break from the UK on a radical prospectus. The horses are not to be frightened.

It also depends on decisions made by businesses; whether they continue to value skill levels in Scotland as a place to invest, whether indigenous companies find the vision and finance to grow, and what can be done about a long-running problem with branch-line offices answering to distant headquarters.

And what about the rest of the UK?

One thing it can assume is that it'll have far less oil and gas revenue.

That hurts public finances, and the sense of energy security, but it would be odd if an independent Scotland withheld its North Sea riches from English markets.

At a guess, English-based companies would probably have to treat Scotland in the same way they treat Ireland - as a smaller economy but one worth selling into, and providing the rest of the UK economy with migrant, skilled labour.

Ireland, after all, does more trade with the UK than all the Brics (Brazil, Russia, India And China) combined.

And if Scotland keeps sterling, that trade would be simpler still.

Edited highlights to make it more manageable - but emphasising the point that it's a lot easier to be decisive, persuasive and focused when you write an article only looking at a few narrow criteria - the situation is vastly more complex than just how much tax is raised and how much is exported.

...Could Scotland afford to go it alone?

The answer is simple - of course it can.

But at what cost to its public finances?

In other words, what might have to change?

Almost every aspect of this debate is contested.
...

Is a pretty good summary of the objective view

[Somerled]

Good wee debate! Thought the "don't cares" may have been a bit higher tbh!

My views?

Idea that Scotland "couldn't survive" on it's own is nonsense. But I just don't understand why we'd want to. I'm a proud Scot, but (almost) equally proud to be British. Maybe partly cos my dad's from Yorkshire. Costs of becoming independent are unknown, and potentially huge.

And as to whether we'd be better or worse off, much evidence put forward to support both positions but the simple answer is we don't know, therefore it's a gamble. A gamble I'm not willing to take. Many are, good luck to them, but I hope there aren't enough of them.

[TRIP5]

the 'interesting' part is that all new members of the EU are required to adopt the Euro as their currency.

EU - 'If you want to join us you'll have to adopt this mickey mouse joke money'

Scotland - 'Have you seen our banknotes?'

 ^^^ THIS!!!!
You ever thought that Westminster might just be holding Scotlands arses afloat here? Salmond may be a nationalist but by hell he's a foolish man. He's a biased bigoted wanna be king who has absolutely no comprehension of the situation in the world outside his own small minded perceived feud between England and Scotland. In the real world no-one cares about the Scotland/ England divide any more apart from the SNP..

The sane masses are more concerned with the spectacular collapse of the international and continental monetary systems.. stock up on water and beans boys and girls, the whole world is going to shit!!

The £ is weak for sure, but it's not being drawn into a nosedive with the collapse of Greece, Italy, Ireland and subsequently the Euro-zone!!

What are SNP planning to do exactly? Segregate the £ even further and go it alone on that monopoly money that's issued from the Bank of Strathclyde et al?.. Yeah, sure that gonna be worth the paper it's written on with in the year if you boys go solo...

#RantOver

xx

[TRIP5]

My daughter told me the other day she thinks it's a bad idea because if Scotland becomes a separate country it'll be more difficult for her to visit her dad's family as they won't be able to drive up

<3 mini Clur-Bird!!

xx

[Geo the Sarge]

the 'interesting' part is that all new members of the EU are required to adopt the Euro as their currency.

EU - 'If you want to join us you'll have to adopt this mickey mouse joke money'

Scotland - 'Have you seen our banknotes?'

 ^^^ THIS!!!!
You ever thought that Westminster might just be holding Scotlands arses afloat here? Salmond may be a nationalist but by hell he's a foolish man. He's a biased bigoted wanna be king who has absolutely no comprehension of the situation in the world outside his own small minded perceived feud between England and Scotland. In the real world no-one cares about the Scotland/ England divide any more apart from the SNP..

The sane masses are more concerned with the spectacular collapse of the international and continental monetary systems.. stock up on water and beans boys and girls, the whole world is going to shit!!

The £ is weak for sure, but it's not being drawn into a nosedive with the collapse of Greece, Italy, Ireland and subsequently the Euro-zone!!

What are SNP planning to do exactly? Segregate the £ even further and go it alone on that monopoly money that's issued from the Bank of Strathclyde et al?.. Yeah, sure that gonna be worth the paper it's written on with in the year if you boys go solo...

#RantOver

xx

The tone of your post suggests otherwise, assuming you are living in the real world -  DUCY?

FWIW I'm against the split.

Geo

[Jon MW]

... Salmond may be a nationalist but by hell he's a foolish man. He's a biased bigoted wanna be king who has absolutely no comprehension of the situation in the world outside his own small minded perceived feud between England and Scotland. In the real world no-one cares about the Scotland/ England divide any more apart from the SNP..
...

lol

I think you might have a somewhat misguided view of politicians.

Leaving aside matters of judgement - do you really believe everything he says? Primarily everything he claims to stand for?

[TRIP5]

... Salmond may be a nationalist but by hell he's a foolish man. He's a biased bigoted wanna be king who has absolutely no comprehension of the situation in the world outside his own small minded perceived feud between England and Scotland. In the real world no-one cares about the Scotland/ England divide any more apart from the SNP..
...

lol

I think you might have a somewhat misguided view of politicians.

Leaving aside matters of judgement - do you really believe everything he says? Primarily everything he claims to stand for?

No. I think he's a biased bigoted wanna be king xx

*Edit: Who may just succeed in ripping the mighty Scotland apart to serve his own youth-filled opinionated agenda..

#YouDidAsk

[TRIP5]

the 'interesting' part is that all new members of the EU are required to adopt the Euro as their currency.

EU - 'If you want to join us you'll have to adopt this mickey mouse joke money'

Scotland - 'Have you seen our banknotes?'

 ^^^ THIS!!!!
You ever thought that Westminster might just be holding Scotlands arses afloat here? Salmond may be a nationalist but by hell he's a foolish man. He's a biased bigoted wanna be king who has absolutely no comprehension of the situation in the world outside his own small minded perceived feud between England and Scotland. In the real world no-one cares about the Scotland/ England divide any more apart from the SNP..

The sane masses are more concerned with the spectacular collapse of the international and continental monetary systems.. stock up on water and beans boys and girls, the whole world is going to shit!!

The £ is weak for sure, but it's not being drawn into a nosedive with the collapse of Greece, Italy, Ireland and subsequently the Euro-zone!!

What are SNP planning to do exactly? Segregate the £ even further and go it alone on that monopoly money that's issued from the Bank of Strathclyde et al?.. Yeah, sure that gonna be worth the paper it's written on with in the year if you boys go solo...

#RantOver

xx

The tone of your post suggests otherwise, assuming you are living in the real world -  DUCY?

FWIW I'm against the split.

Geo

Not at all! I'm just against people using old wounds/battles as a self-fulfilling political tool...

xx

[Woodsey]

Skintland lol

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2129426/Skintland-Fury-The-Economists-spoof-view-Scotlands-future-goes-independent.html?ito=feeds-newsxml

[Jon MW]

The Economist article itself is a variation of the BBC analysis, the BBC were more balanced and more appropriately concluded that it was impossible to tell whereas the Economist seems a bit more concrete in their beliefs and hence conclusion.

The fact that the SNP have concentrated all their argument on the crass front cover rather than the actual content of the article gives a pretty good indication that they don't want people to look too closely at the potential financial problems though.

[Kmac84]

So one of the Sunday newspapers had a poll today showing that many more Scots are now in favour of independence than before. 

I wonder what the reasons for this are, I have always advocated self determination for Scotland.  Not because I am a nationalist or separatist but moreso because I am an internationalist.  The british state is in terminal decline and I don't want Scotland to be dragged down with it due to mismanagement. 

That said, I am open to discussion about the ideas and want to see what the pro-Union element have to offer but apart from scaremngering and blind patriotism I have yet to see a coherent arguement in favour of the UK.  This better together and strongers as one nonsense doesn't hold any water.  The UK is one of the most unequal societies in the western world.  I want to a prosperous contry that treats her citizens with respect and affords them opportunity to better the majority.  I don't want to see more austerity or managed decline. 

One of the arguements that I see the NO side come up with is Europe, they create uncertainty and confusion.  They know full well Scotland can't yet negotiate with the EU but they have shown no interest in answering the questions many Scots want answered, but then I am wondering when I see reports like this is it because they already know the answer?

http://www.publications.parliament.uk/pa/cm201213/cmselect/cmfaff/writev/643/m05.htm

Being an independent country and having self dermination is only natural.  With an independent Scotland it can show other parts of the UK that a different way is possible and we can once and for all end this status quo.

[Kmac84]

The Better Together campaign is falling apart at the seams as lie after lie after honest mistake is made.  There is no heart nor desire.  The Tories and UKIP are not wanted in Scotland, Labour is a shambles and does anyone actually take the ConLibs seriously? 

http://wingsoverscotland.com/moving-on-up/

There is still lots of work to be done, but those figures in that poll are the tip of the iceberg imo.  I have been to housing estates across Glasgow, I have spoken to people across the country on the telephone and the vast majority are either Yes or undecided.  The undecided's are more likely to vote yes because they want to vote for something not against it.  The people of Scotland will not be told what we can and can't do my pompous public school boy egotists.  We want a democracy thats puts the majority at the heart of what we do not based on benefiting the rich minority. 

The growing support for non-nationalist groups such as Labour for Indy, Radical Independence Campaign etc is hear warming.  Being an independent nation is not about Nationalism. 

[Woodsey]

I think the rest of us should have an option to vote Scotland out, seems fair 

Will be great news for the Tories if Scotland go, labour won't have a look in for a generation at least.

[TightEnd]

are all these polls wrong?

[Kmac84]

are all these polls wrong?

They certainly aren't in date. 

Additionally Panelbase have a track record of providing beter sample polls.   

We all know polls can easily be manipulated, much of it depends on the sample size, the area, the demographics etc, but the nonsense spouted from the right wing media on these islands does not stack up with the general view on the streets of Scotland. 

Then there is this:

http://www.heraldscotland.com/politics/referendum-news/currency-furore-over-mystery-of-missing-memos.23890582

Not to mention the EU.  Were we all know the Brit government could get the questions answered tomorrow if it wanted, but would rather fight the campaing on negatives and black ops tactics.