Darts is so strong right now that you cant ever get an "easy draw" but a few people will be happier than others for sure.
MVG has drifted to as big as 11/8, 8/5 and even some 2.7 knocking about on various exchanges, certainly the first time he's ever been this long for a tournament ever, even at this i'm not a backer. His draw is ok-ish, early rounds present a real problem for MVG potentially as he's really struggled to maintain focus in these games all year and obviously puts way too much pressure on himself, Raymond Smith has a bit of class we saw it in the WSOD but as far as dangerous second round games go he's come out just fine. His Round 3 game likely Noppert or Hopp and neither of those 2 are dreamy second round opponent, round 3 vs Lewis (who has shown glimpses of his past self of late) Barney, who cannot help but play A*** game vs MVG every time they meet, and a dangerous floater in Labanauskas. Last 16 vs Whitlock/Wade/Ratajski perhaps and then a semi (probably) vs Gary who ironed him out over a long format in wolverhampton 10 days ago, I think realistically you'd need 9/4+ before you started seriously considering a bet.
Lewis andBarney are both 66/1 kinda prices and I think you'd struggle to be too excited about them given the years they've had and the draws they have, Barney in particular has a really nasty draw. One place I think we might be able to look for some sneaky ew value is the bottom half of MVG's section, the top half of section 1 is way tougher than the bottom, Klaasen and Norris are two of the weaker seeds on paper and with MVG having a few banana skins in his path there's a non 0% chance they might swerve having to meet him. Unfortunately there isn't really too many spots, Wade is a complete non starter at 40-1, Whitlock is in good form really wanted to see 100-1 on him, I think one that might be worth a sneaky punt is Ratajski at 200/1, and 40/1 to win his 1/4 might be worth a look.
Gary has come from 6-1, 13/2 to 7/2, 100/30 over the past few weeks, even losing to MVG on sunday didnt stop him from shortening still, the format suits Gary down to the ground and he's been the best player over the year for sure, he'll be pretty pleased with his draw, Wattimena, Beaton, Webster, Van der Voort and a couple of danger floaters in Barnard and Dobey but his path the 1/4s should be relatively painless, 1/4 final vs most likely Gurney (who he has an appalling record against) who'll be full of confidence after the Players, but he has a dangerous section too, Chizzy returning to form, Jamie Lewis playing stage darts, and some really dangerous guys like Ross Smith, Paul Lim, Martin Schindler, Josh Payne. Just the fact he likely has a 1/4 vs Gurney and a semi vs MVG make 100/30 a no-go on Gary, huge odds-on to win his 1/4 and rightly so.
No - one else really stands out with any value in Q2, the top half of Q2 all face a likely Gary quarter final, MVG semi final, Gurney - like wade - is at 33s falsely after his players win, I think this is the section of the draw we're least likely to see an upset!
Q3 is much more interesting, Rob Cross, who has had a year full of inconsistency, bad luck, bad results ould have been hoping for a little rub of the green on his defending WC draw, and he hasn't got it at all. Opening against dw Zwaan who's already killed MVG on the first round of 2 majors this year and absolutely loves stage darts is exactly what he wasn't wanting, then he has Reyes/Evans who are both playing really well at the moment, then Clayton and Bunting who are both in markedly improved form, Dimitri who is a different player on this stage, and Luke Humprhies who's beat him on stage this year already and given everyone a game on the euro tours. Really horrible top half of Q3. Cross has drifted out to 20s+ and im still not interested. If you're Micheal Smith, you're looking at this thinking, man I could have a real crack at this this year. Big Ron most likely opener (dont right Portela off though) followed by a 3rd round with Hendo or Clemens not easy but shouldn't give him too many problems. Mensur on the other hand has a really dangerous little run-in, Ryan Searle since the light switch flicked on midway through the year is no-one anyone wants to play, James Wilson is in great form and that gets him in front of micheal smith, could be anyone to play in the 1/4 finals of that section, Smith form is improving, Mensur's seems to be fading. It's the kind of quarter where all the favourites might knock into each other and leave the path for a younger guy to sneak through.
Smith come in from 60s+ to start the year to as low as 14/1 now, Mensur around 20s where he is for every tournament and Dimitri come into 66s, for me, I quite like the look of Jonny Clayton at 150/1.
in Q4 Wright has found himself with the easiest run to the 1.
possible under the circumstances. Cullen is a danger but Benito and King are wildly out of sorts, Mansell quite a tricky character, Jan Dekker can be dangerous and Dolan shown a decent bit of form at the players but really it's pretty soft, the top half of this quarter is way way trickier, all 4 of the seeds are in really good form (Price, Anderson, White and West) North, de Graaf and Aspinall are dangerous wildcards too. If you can come through few tricky openers you got a match they'll all fancy vs Wright on current form and a winnable semi. Ian White available at 100/1 looks crazy long to me, he has the TV hoo-doo but he's too good to never get past the 1/4 finals forever and this has been his best year in terms of overall performance. Joe Cullen at the same price 100/1 also looks a bit tempting given how good he can be, just seems to have this gremlin for the big moments like IW.
Be interesting to see how the Ladies do, those two are not going to be pushovers by any stretch, Lisa Ashton actualy has an ok draw too, Dekker/King/Cullen/Wright could have been a lot worse. Anastasia has a tougher draw with Whitlock in round 2, both of them have very winnable openers though.
I quite like,
Small Ratajski 200/1 ew
Small Ratajski to win his 1/4 40/1
Small Jonny clayton 125/1 ew
Small Ian White 100/1
Small Joe Cullen 100/1
Roll on Roll on
Author