I've got a few thoughts on this year's Giro...
Firstly, stay away from the outright GC market. Nairo Quintana is likely to win the overall, and at odds-on holds no value whatsoever (especially when you consider that one crash could end it all,
a la Daniel Martin in today's time-trial). All the other contenders for the GC are priced in, with Cadel Evans (8/1 @ Spoilsports) being the most attractive. When you consider that he is effectively riding for 2nd place, however, 2/1 at quarter-odds is a far less attractive investment.
I've had a little wager on a few rank outsiders: Daniel Martin @ 150/1 (went off @ 30/1)
, Wout Poels, Julian Arredondo and Thomas de Gendt. But these are all banzais which are very unlikely to make a return.
Secondly, there might be a smidgen of value in the team classification market. Astana and Movistar have the two strongest squads in the Giro, and are therefore joint favourites. The thing is, with Movistar riding for Quintana, they would be more than willing to sacrifice their ambitions as a team if things got tight at the top, with some domestiques saving their legs at key moments in the race. Also, without Iglinskiy in their squad (due to passport issues), Astana are missing a vital component in respect of their ability to deliver on mountain stages and in time-trials. As a result, I've gone with some value in the form of BMC Racing Team (best 33/1) and Omega Pharma Quick-Step (best 66/1). BMC have 3 top climbers in Evans, Sanchez and Hermans, and a first-rate TT squad. OPQS have Uran, De Gendt, Poels and Serry in the mountains (and again a strong TT squad). In case you didn't know, the top 3 riders from each team have their times added together for each stage, with the biggest time discrepancies coming in the mountain and TT stages.
Thirdly, I've been rather interested by the prices on offer in the King of the Mountains classification market. Since 2007, Italians riding on invitational teams have done rather well in this category. The recent winners of the KOM have been:
2013 Pirazzi (ITA) Bardiani-CSF
2012 Rabottini (ITA) Neri Sottoli
2011 Garzelli (ITA) Acqua & Sapone
2010 Lloyd (AUS) Predictor-Lotto
2009 Garzelli (ITA) Acqua & Sapone
2008 Sella (ITA) Ceramica Panaria-Margres
2007 Piepoli (ITA) Saunier Duval-Prodir
The reason for this is that a lot of the points for the KOM are spread over peaks which are located in the middle of the mountain stages ... and not just at the end. This means that the riders in breakaways tend to hoover up the points mid-stage, whereas the GC contenders tend to fight for the points on offer at the line. This year, for example, the
Cima Coppi (the highest point in the race, at which the most KOM points are on offer) is located on the Stelvio ... which falls mid-stage. Given that the Giro is an Italian stage race, it goes without saying that the Italian teams (and riders) are motivated to do well in front of their home fans, and they will therefore be in a lot of breakaways. The Italian invitational teams for this year are Androni Giocattoli-Venezuela, Bardiani-CSF and Neri Sottoli (NRI). If we take the unattractively priced favourite, Pirazzi @ 9/2, out of the equation ... hoping that he'll be a marked man ... we are left with the following interesting candidates:
Matteo Rabottini (NRI) 14/1 2014 - 3rd Overall Coppi e Bartali
Francesco Bongiorno (BAR) 66/1 2014 - 4th Overall Coppi e Bartali, 14th Overall Giro del Trentino
Franco Pellizotti (AND) 100/1 2014 - 6th Overall Coppi e Bartali, 9th Overall Giro del Trentino
Marco Canola (BAR) unpriced 2014 - 1st KOM Tirreno-Adriatico
I've also thrown in the following attacking Italian riders as possibilities:
Davide Villella (ITA) Cannondale 100/1 2014 - 1st KOM Vuelta a Pais Vasco
Matteo Montaguti (ITA) AG2R 100/1 2014 - 3rd KOM Vuelta a Pais Vasco, 2013 - 5th KOM Vuelta a Pais Vasco
As you can see, there is a lot of potential value here ... but it needs a bit of refinement, and a second pair of eyes. Tonji? If I had to propose a safe bet, I'd go for Rabottini each-way, because he has a good chance of winning it outright, and is almost certain to be in the mix (barring a crash). I'll be keeping an eye on the KOM throughout the Giro, as things can change dramatically from stage to stage. A rider that scores points one day is unlikely to score points the next, owing to fatigue. So picking one's stages correctly is crucial to tactics.
Anyway, I hope you didn't drift off mid-post. In summary, it's a very tough market this year, because, as I've said before, the odds compilers are becoming more clued up. Saying that, I've got an interesting angle for Stage 5, so I'm waiting on the prices for that one. Fingers crossed.
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