Racing Thread

[Karabiner]

Getting ready for Gold Cup day already.......

I've always like Cue Card but......

Based on comments on the other thread, by those much less punty than I, if we are saying that Cue Card didnt run his race on Boxing Day, and he could beat ThistleCrack if they were both on form.....

Is the 20/1 1/5 1,2,3 with Betfairlyfair Sportsalmanac for Cue Card as apposed to the 11/10 for Thistelcrack a max EW bet?

Appreciate reasons if my thinking is flawed. Thanks.

Tizzard has said that Cue Card's most likely target is The Ryanair and that Thistlecrack and Native River will go for The Gold Cup.

He doesn't want all three of his big guns in the same race.

[atdc21]

I think Cue Card could be on way out, very difficult in general to perform at top level after operations, and just hasnt looked old self last few runs.

[NigDawG]

I think Cue Card could be on way out, very difficult in general to perform at top level after operations, and just hasnt looked old self last few runs.

penultimate run (haydock) been rated as joint career best so that's not strictly true. i don't think he's quite as good on faster ground which it clearly was on boxing day but yes he is now an 11yr old

[Marky147]

His performances last season would indicate that he improved for his operations.

That said, he is now 11, as Chris says. Still, I think they should run him in the GC again, as I don't think he wants a drop back in trip on what will likely be decent ground.

On Stuart's question, I'm not sure I'd be max betting anything until they go NRNB

[Karabiner]

On Stuart's question, I'm not sure I'd be max betting anything until they go NRNB

Certainly not maxing it EW

[atdc21]

Re Cue card , yes he prob improved straight away after op, but as they get older it can soon wear off, i could be totally wrong but was pretty tame effort v thistlecrack, finished in a heap with the rest of them.
The haydock race beat coneygree that had not raced for a year.....hard to access.
the ground didnt help last time, we will wait and see ......

[arbboy]

http://www.racingpost.com/news/live.sd?event_id=23076124&category=0

Incredible news this.  Thought it was just dog stadiums that were losing around London.

[TightEnd]

Kempton Park being sold for Housing, jockey club announces

King George etc going to Sandown

[arbboy]

All weather track at Newmarket makes a lot of sense though.  Can see why they are doing it.  Will reduce a lot of expenses for Newmarket trainers.

[atdc21]

Chelmsford to get floodlit turf track and casino .

[arbboy]

In other Baldfred news (he owns Chelmsford racecourse) over half his shops would become loss making and be closed he said if the FOBT's max stake is reduced to £2 a spin according to his 'open letter' to the racing post today on the front page.

Done: high street betting shops under threat
 
BY BILL BARBER 7:27AM 10 JAN 2017
 
BETFRED boss Fred Done has described the increasing pressure on gaming machines as "the biggest single threat to the future of the high street betting shop" he has known in 50 years, with disastrous repercussions for racing.

Done claimed draconian action to limit stakes on the machines, also known as fixed-odds betting terminals or FOBTs, would leave the racing industry irretrievably damaged.

Pressure from politicians and the media over the machines and their alleged link to problem gambling has been mounting and the government last year announced a review examining the subject.

Campaigners have called for the maximum stake on the machines, which is currently £100, to be slashed to as little as £2, a move the betting industry has claimed would lead to thousands of betting shops closing.

In an open letter, Done - who this year celebrates half a century as a bookmaker - said the sector was "under siege because of the moral panic surrounding fixed-odds betting terminals".

Done said social responsibility work done by the industry had struck the right balance between prevention of harm and freedom of choice and questioned whether some of those campaigning against the machines were doing so out of vested interests.

'Balanced and evidence-based'

He also said he hoped the government would not be swayed by the "myths" surrounding the machines.

"Given the huge significance of the issues that are at stake here, the debate concerning the future of FOBTs in high street betting shops should be both balanced and evidence-based," he said.

"And yet recent press coverage in the build up to the Triennial Review has regrettably been categorised by alarmist rhetoric and misleading sound bites."

Done said Betfred had carried out modelling on his then 1,360-strong betting shop estate before the purchase of 322 shops from Ladbrokes and Coral in the autumn.

He said a reduction in gaming machine stakes to £2 would make 660 of those shops loss-making overnight, "resulting in me having to make a decision to close them". Done said that would result in at least 3,300 employees being made redundant.

He added: "This is without doubt the biggest threat to the high street betting shop I have faced during my 50 years in business as a bookmaker."

In my experience recently i saw a punter lose £2400 in a FOBT in my local bald shop over a couple of hours and no staff at any stage approached him about him gambling responsibly.  The Bald one really is an odious individual talking about vested interests!  Why don't you go back to doing what you have a licence to do Bald and actually lay a punter a fair bet to make an honest living rather than living off FOBT's and running a loan shark business which you even offer to your own employees.

[atdc21]

Im sure the redundancies would be his main concern.

[arbboy]

https://beta.racingpost.com/news/news/done-it-s-a-sector-under-siege-because-of-the-moral-panic-surrounding-fobts/271358

Bald's full open letter.

This is my favourite line.  Why don't you lay a reasonable bet then bald in your shops to anyone who has a clue what they are doing?

Throughout my time as an independent bookmaker it has always been my intention to operate in a way that does not harm or exploit customers who choose to use our shops.

To be balanced he does make some reasonable arguments regarding the Daily Mail style hype stories about churn v losses etc.

The bottom line is you can't realistically play roulette to £2 limits so the FOBT's will effectively just return to being fruit machines if this measure goes through.  They will effectively be banning FOBT's if they reduce the stakes to £2 a spin.  I am surprised a reasonable limit of £25 a spin isn't being discussed.  The vast majority of punters will spin less than £25 a spin so won't be effected.

[Doobs]

Re Cue card , yes he prob improved straight away after op, but as they get older it can soon wear off, i could be totally wrong but was pretty tame effort v thistlecrack, finished in a heap with the rest of them.
The haydock race beat coneygree that had not raced for a year.....hard to access.
the ground didnt help last time, we will wait and see ......

Timeform gave their view on the King George a week or so ago.

https://www.timeform.com/horse-racing/features/ratings-update/ratings-update-christmas-special-29122016

Summary, he got a lower rating than Cue Card was on after the betfair (by a pound).  They have now lowered Cue Card by 2 pounds to put him (convenietntly) behind Thistlecrack by a pound.  Thistlecrack is still capable of better still.  They state that rating the King George isn't straightforward.  Cue Card ran below form.  To give Thistlecrack such a high rating, they had to assume Silvianico Conti was as good as his best from the season before and Tea for Two ran a career best.

I expect Cue Card will go for the Ryanair now, but it seems a shame that such a good horse isn't ever going to win a Gold Cup if that happens.  I'd go for it if he was mine, as it really is lkely to be his last chance before time catches up with him.

If I was offered 20/1 with a run vs evens/odds on Thistlecrack, I'd snap their hands off.  Those odds would mean Thistlecrack would win 10 times more often than Cue Card, on the back of one race.  That can't be right.

FWIW I'd love to see Douvan step up and take on Thistlecrack next year.  That could be a great rivalry.

Shame about Kempton, if it does close, but I always much preferred Sandown.  There is an issue in that Sandown and Cheltenham are similar tests albeit one left handed and the other right handed.  Aintree is still there for those that need a flat track.

   

[atdc21]

Taunton 3.40 is a fairly modest race, im interested in NO NO Cardinal, not even in handicap proper but only by 3lb out has ran ok from similar marks before, back to hurdling for first time in ages and a low mark compared to chase form rating. seems one that doesnt get home too well in races, but Taunton easy track  , could front run too . Still 16/1 with 365 for anyone wanna risk a few quid on a big price one, that could just have a squeak.