IMHO saints are going to have an advantage of being slightly more advanced in there prep for the season due to europa qualifying
along with that there first 3-4 games are games that saints should be targeting to win
i feel we can get off to a good start and then as the games mount up the squad depth will kick in and we
will head south in the league
all dependant on saints getting into league stage that is
I get all this, but there are some bits you are missing:
I think your thinking relies on them starting to push out prices after only 3 or 4 matches, and also that the bookies are not aware of your easy start or your early start for the Europa league and that the Europa league will take a toll later in the season.
It is only better to bet later if the price is better value than now.
If say you get 8 points from the first 4 games and assuming somebody pushes you out to 66/1, is that better or worse than 50/1 now?
Say you have a bad start and only get 4 from 4, is 33/1 after 4 games better than 50/1 now?
I like the thinking by the way, and it feels right in theory, just not sure it works in practice.