Saints and Sinners Southampton FC

[George2Loose]

Second season syndrome? What price Southampton to go down?

[celtic]

Extremely unlikely I would say.

[Ironside]

Second season syndrome? What price Southampton to go down?

3rd season now though

[George2Loose]

Second season syndrome? What price Southampton to go down?

3rd season now though

Meant under koeman

[Ironside]

well he worked a miracle last season doing what he did

he will need to work another if we are to repeat it with europa league

[celtic]

Why a miracle? He spent a few quid, bought some decent players. Lost some players but they weren't exactly miles better than what he replaced them with.

[George2Loose]

33/1 is a decent price. Might have a few quid on it

[Ironside]

Why a miracle? He spent a few quid, bought some decent players. Lost some players but they weren't exactly miles better than what he replaced them with.

more games small squad just look at celtics results around the times they are in europe celtic bigger team in weaker league

33/1 is a decent price. Might have a few quid on it

wait untill the first 3-4 games of season it will be a bigger price i am 80% sure then get the money on

[celtic]

33/1 is a decent price. Might have a few quid on it

You can get 50-1 according to oddschecker.

[Doobs]

Why a miracle? He spent a few quid, bought some decent players. Lost some players but they weren't exactly miles better than what he replaced them with.

more games small squad just look at celtics results around the times they are in europe celtic bigger team in weaker league

33/1 is a decent price. Might have a few quid on it

wait untill the first 3-4 games of season it will be a bigger price i am 80% sure then get the money on

Hello Ironside

Are you really 80% sure the price will be bigger?  Bookies are very good at shortening prices and not so good at pushing them out.  I have no memory of what has happened  at the start of a football season though and guess somebody may be more wlling on betfair.

Have you any better idea than me on what happened in the past.

[George2Loose]

86% of stats are made up on the spot

[celtic]

83% of stats are made up on the spot

FYP

[Ironside]

IMHO saints are going to have an advantage of being slightly more advanced in there prep for the season due to europa qualifying
along with that there first 3-4 games are games that saints should be targeting to win
i feel we can get off to a good start and then as the games mount up the squad depth will kick in and we
will head south in the league

all dependant on saints getting into league stage that is

[Doobs]

IMHO saints are going to have an advantage of being slightly more advanced in there prep for the season due to europa qualifying
along with that there first 3-4 games are games that saints should be targeting to win
i feel we can get off to a good start and then as the games mount up the squad depth will kick in and we
will head south in the league

all dependant on saints getting into league stage that is

I get all this, but there are some bits you are missing:

I think your thinking relies on them starting to push out prices after only 3 or 4 matches, and also that the bookies are not aware of your easy start or your early start for the Europa league and that the Europa league will take a toll later in the season.

It is only better to bet later if the price is better value than now.

If say you get 8 points from the first 4 games and assuming somebody pushes you out to 66/1, is that better or worse than 50/1 now?

Say you have a bad start and only get 4 from 4, is 33/1 after 4 games better than 50/1 now?

I like the thinking by the way, and it feels right in theory, just not sure it works in practice.

[Ironside]

no worries i am not and never claimed to be an expert at gambling just feel the price is going to be bigger later so i would wait till then

just like last year i thought the price for them going down was too high then after the first game i recommended we green out when the price went too low

to me thats how we are supposed to bet get on at highest price and off at lowest

but i do understand value the way its really is in that saints coould be value at 33-1 and 0 points and then no longer value with 10 points at 100-1
i would just rather be on with the 100-1 but i am greedy