UK General Election 2015

[BigAdz]

Just shows.

No wonder I was never any good at poker!

Sorry if I offended anyone with my opinion of their voting mannerisms.

[redsimon]

Just shows.

No wonder I was never any good at poker!

Sorry if I offended anyone with my opinion of their voting mannerisms.

Had a chuckle at being labelled a Green

[RickBFA]

Really enjoyed this thread and the contributions from all sides.

[Woodsey]

I think it would be pretty easy to pick out whether people are voting left or right based on comments on here, maybe not pick the exact party though.

[mulhuzz]

I think it would be pretty easy to pick out whether people are voting left or right based on comments on here, maybe not pick the exact party though.

think that depends on what you define left and right by.

LAB and CON are both pretty centrist (at least, a lot more than they have been before...)

[Marky147]

Really enjoyed this thread and the contributions from all sides.

+1

[Woodsey]

I will be glad when its all over now.

Each day, I tell myself not to read this thread. Each day I can't help myself.

Of everyone that has posted on here more than a couple of times, it is so clear which way everyone bar about one person actually votes, and each seem to pick angles/articles to justify their standpoint, and very few here have even opened themselves up to other views. All totally acceptable, but still quite tilting.

As ever, polls are quite interesting. FWIW, I have no idea which way it will go but I suspect despite all the mocking of UKIP here, and in most areas of scrutiny, they will get a massive turnout, maybe not reflected in seats, but certainly in votes.

I live in one of the strongest/longest Tory seats in England, yet all I hear are ground swells of support for UKIP, not just in my constituency, but as I travel round. It's not popular or sensible to wear the ideology openly, but I suspect far more may vote that way.

As an employed person, with a F&C house, and other sources of income, i doubt the whole thing will effect me much whichever way it goes, but I do hope it doesn't all result in the bloody Scots having the balance of power.



Wouldn't be right to not have a little bet, and the 11/10 offered by Hills for both Farage and Clegg to win their seats looks worth a nibble to me, if the Tory tactical vote in Sheffield happens, as thought.

Im also slightly tempted by UKIP at 9/4 to win more seats than Plaid C.

Just about Everybody on here including you and me has (excluding tighty) has been spouting biased drivel that agrees with their viewpoint and calling the opposite view a load of bollocks. It's a waste of our time really but like you I can't help but stick my neck out once in a while lol.

[TightEnd]

Ashcroft has come out with his final poll

on here is some hilarious focus group stuff from his polling

http://www.conservativehome.com/platform/2015/05/lord-ashcroft-the-conservatives-lead-by-two-points-in-this-weeks-ashcroft-national-poll.html

"Few claimed to have made it all the way through the debates. “I started but then there was something more important to do, like tomorrow’s sandwiches.” “I went up to the bedroom but my boyfriend was watching the debate in bed so I went downstairs again. It’s alright, I’ve got my rabbit.” “Was that from the Ann Summers catalogue?” “I meant my bunny rabbit!”"

[TightEnd]

and people were asked for three facts about each leader

[Woodsey]

I think it would be pretty easy to pick out whether people are voting left or right based on comments on here, maybe not pick the exact party though.

think that depends on what you define left and right by.

LAB and CON are both pretty centrist (at least, a lot more than they have been before...)

Well I define left as Labour, lib Dems, SNP, Greens, Plaid whatever they are. Right is Cons and UKIP, have I missed anyone? Some might not be hugely left or right of centre but they still are.

[TightEnd]

some tactical voting stuff in there too

"This week’s focus groups took place in Pudsey, Rossendale & Darwen and Hazel Grove, two very close Conservative-Labour marginals and a seat where the Liberal Democrats are seeking to fend off the Tories. The doorstep campaigning was intense, if sometimes confusing. “I got a letter from someone in the Lib Dems urging me to vote Labour. Lord somebody.” Oakeshott? “That’s the one”. Interesting."

[TightEnd]

SNP suspends pair after Glasgow scuffle http://polho.me/1GYcDTK 

we were told yesterday, nothing to do with the SNP

[TightEnd]

i don't think there is a legitimacy row

a combination hits 323, they can govern

but anyway...

"As legitimacy row continues, here's Newsnight poll on what public think - 55% want leader with the most MPs to be PM http://bit.ly/1zKhIge"

[TightEnd]

Elephants in the room

The two big questions we might asking on Friday

Laura Kuenssberg

Newsnight Chief Correspondent
Posted at 14:17

In this strange lull before the actual results on Friday morning, you can hardly move for speculation about what might happen on Friday – not just who will be Prime Minister this time round, but the long term questions this election might throw up.

Two big fat ones seem likely.

1. Should we change the voting system?

The momentum of smaller parties like UKIP and the Greens looks likely to slam up against the brick wall of first past the post. The public roundly rejected a move to the Alternative Vote system in this parliament. But it is not impossible that the question will be asked in some form or other again in the weeks to come, perhaps on whether it’s time to move to a proportional voting system.Professor John Curtice has given his projections of what the numbers might look like under PR to the Independent this morning and the results would be transformational. Under PR the projections, Conservatives would be receive 219 seats, Labour 215, instead of 275 and 290 respectively in his current forecast. But PR wouldn’t just put Labour marginally ahead. It would be a gamechanger for smaller parties. The Greens would go from 1 MP to 33. UKIP (on this projection) from 0 to 84. But interestingly it could actually cut the impact of the SNP from 46 projected MP s to 28.

2. Can the Union between Scotland and the rest of the UK survive?

The SNP has tried to emphasise again and again that this is not a rerun of the independence referendum, arguing there would have to be a "substantial change" before they would argue for a second vote on the issue. But what is a "significant change" if it is not a near clean sweep of Scottish parliamentary constituencies on Thursday? If the SNP does as well as the polls suggest, it is intensely likely that they will argue for a second referendum in their 2016 manifesto, and it is not impossible that such a vote could take place before the next UK-wide General Election in 2020. One senior Scottish figure tells me "the union is knacked", it’s just that Westminster hasn’t realised it yet. It might sound farfetched right now, but it is not impossible that this will be the last UK General Election that includes Scotland.

[The Camel]

Elephants in the room

The two big questions we might asking on Friday

Laura Kuenssberg

Newsnight Chief Correspondent
Posted at 14:17

In this strange lull before the actual results on Friday morning, you can hardly move for speculation about what might happen on Friday – not just who will be Prime Minister this time round, but the long term questions this election might throw up.

Two big fat ones seem likely.

1. Should we change the voting system?

The momentum of smaller parties like UKIP and the Greens looks likely to slam up against the brick wall of first past the post. The public roundly rejected a move to the Alternative Vote system in this parliament. But it is not impossible that the question will be asked in some form or other again in the weeks to come, perhaps on whether it’s time to move to a proportional voting system.Professor John Curtice has given his projections of what the numbers might look like under PR to the Independent this morning and the results would be transformational. Under PR the projections, Conservatives would be receive 219 seats, Labour 215, instead of 275 and 290 respectively in his current forecast. But PR wouldn’t just put Labour marginally ahead. It would be a gamechanger for smaller parties. The Greens would go from 1 MP to 33. UKIP (on this projection) from 0 to 84. But interestingly it could actually cut the impact of the SNP from 46 projected MP s to 28.

2. Can the Union between Scotland and the rest of the UK survive?

The SNP has tried to emphasise again and again that this is not a rerun of the independence referendum, arguing there would have to be a "substantial change" before they would argue for a second vote on the issue. But what is a "significant change" if it is not a near clean sweep of Scottish parliamentary constituencies on Thursday? If the SNP does as well as the polls suggest, it is intensely likely that they will argue for a second referendum in their 2016 manifesto, and it is not impossible that such a vote could take place before the next UK-wide General Election in 2020. One senior Scottish figure tells me "the union is knacked", it’s just that Westminster hasn’t realised it yet. It might sound farfetched right now, but it is not impossible that this will be the last UK General Election that includes Scotland.

The voting system is completely unfair and ridiculous.

I'm nearly 50 (I know, hard to believe, right?) and my vote has never mattered.

I was brought up in a safe Tory seat where I had my first two elections, moved to London for a couple of elections and was in a safe Labour seat, now back in a safe Tory seat.

I have never had a politician knock on my door. I virtually have never even had a campaign leaflet posted through my letter box.

I might as well have never voted.

The election is decided on the votes of about 5 million people who live in marginal seats.

How can that ever be fair?