UK General Election 2015

[TightEnd]

I tend to agree

"the problem is that the UK has an electoral system built for old-style two party politics, that cannot cope with the fracturing of the traditional set-up, weakening of loyalties and rise of the nationalists and UKIP. Britain now has five, six or seven party politics with ‎a two party voting system. In the potentially chaotic aftermath of Thursday’s vote, expect voting reform to be back on the agenda.

The best argument for First Past the Post was always that it tended to deliver strong majority governments. If it no longer does that, what is the point of sticking with it? If, after this most exciting of elections, the result is another hung parliament, Labour will not have won a majority for a decade and the Conservatives for twenty three years. In such circumstances the case for change will be difficult to resist."

but only in 2011 the referundum convincingly rejected AV........how did we all vote in that? did we vote?

i suspect many didn't.

[TightEnd]

http://blogs.lse.ac.uk/generalelection/what-would-the-election-look-like-under-pr/

62% chance that 2015 election will be least proportional since start of universal male suffrage



a score of 100 means that each party wins exactly the same proportion of seats in the House of Commons as its proportion of votes

[doubleup]

If you did it just for england wouldn't it be quite high?

[aaron1867]

Surely not camel? The election is decided by us all, but in a lot of seats some are just locked up. It could be said using your theory that the election is actually decided by those who choose not to vote...

[The Camel]

I tend to agree

"the problem is that the UK has an electoral system built for old-style two party politics, that cannot cope with the fracturing of the traditional set-up, weakening of loyalties and rise of the nationalists and UKIP. Britain now has five, six or seven party politics with ‎a two party voting system. In the potentially chaotic aftermath of Thursday’s vote, expect voting reform to be back on the agenda.

The best argument for First Past the Post was always that it tended to deliver strong majority governments. If it no longer does that, what is the point of sticking with it? If, after this most exciting of elections, the result is another hung parliament, Labour will not have won a majority for a decade and the Conservatives for twenty three years. In such circumstances the case for change will be difficult to resist."

but only in 2011 the referundum convincingly rejected AV........how did we all vote in that? did we vote?

i suspect many didn't.

I have no idea why all the parties voted against, so called "strong government" argument is a myth.

I voted for, but only because it was an improvement on our current system.

There are much fairer forms of PR than AV.

[TightEnd]

If you did it just for england wouldn't it be quite high?

higher

but you still have UKIP and Green about to poll 15-20% and getting 2-5 seats on forecasts

so a good slug of the lack of proportionality exists in england too

the other slug is obviously scotland having 59 seats, tiny urban constituencies for the most part (opens can of worms), and some massive constituencies without many voters

its going to take 1m votes to elect a UKIP MP and 20,000 to elect an SNP MP

[The Camel]

Surely not camel? The election is decided by us all, but in a lot of seats some are just locked up. It could be said using your theory that the election is actually decided by those who choose not to vote...

Of course it does. I could vote for the Aaron Brunskill is Magic Party in Richmondshire and it wouldn't count a jot, because even if 10,0000 of the non voters here joined me voting ABIMP the Tories would still win.

However, in a constituency where the majority is small, the actions of voters are far far more important. If ABIMP convinced just 100 Tory voters to join the revolution and everyone else voted exactly the same, Labour would win the seat/

[redsimon]

I tend to agree

"the problem is that the UK has an electoral system built for old-style two party politics, that cannot cope with the fracturing of the traditional set-up, weakening of loyalties and rise of the nationalists and UKIP. Britain now has five, six or seven party politics with ‎a two party voting system. In the potentially chaotic aftermath of Thursday’s vote, expect voting reform to be back on the agenda.

The best argument for First Past the Post was always that it tended to deliver strong majority governments. If it no longer does that, what is the point of sticking with it? If, after this most exciting of elections, the result is another hung parliament, Labour will not have won a majority for a decade and the Conservatives for twenty three years. In such circumstances the case for change will be difficult to resist."

but only in 2011 the referundum convincingly rejected AV........how did we all vote in that? did we vote?

i suspect many didn't.

I voted in favour though I wasn't convinced the AV system is the most proportional its better that fptp

[redsimon]

Are Party leaflets, Election Communications I think they are called(?) now a thing of the past?

In my area I have had:

2 Labour leaflets, 1 Conservative, 1 TUSC, 3 (!) UKIP. For the local election I have had 1 TUSC 1 UKIP. Had to go on City Council site to see who is standing for the Council election.

I understand the Greens and Liberal democrats have candidates but no literature from them at all!

[BorntoBubble]

Are Party leaflets, Election Communications I think they are called(?) now a thing of the past?

In my area I have had:

2 Labour leaflets, 1 Conservative, 1 TUSC, 3 (!) UKIP. For the local election I have had 1 TUSC 1 UKIP. Had to go on City Council site to see who is standing for the Council election.

I understand the Greens and Liberal democrats have candidates but no literature from them at all!

I was shocked at how little Social Media was being used also by local candidates, in fact I had to go searching over the weekend. I was expecting this election to be full of sponsored posts and sharing from friends but all I get is the national stuff which is obviously important but surely instead of printing a gazillion leaflets at ££££ then chucking £1000 at social media is not a bad use of funds.

[TightEnd]

if you had to go over or under 68.5% turnout in the UK in 2015 at evens

over or under?

the only two replies went under

Ben Page, Ipsos MORI ‏@benatipsosmori

74% telling us certain to vote on Thursday. Almost certainly too high, but does suggest a rise from 65% turnout in 2010. 70% possible

[redsimon]

I suppose a big turnout in Scotland?

[ripple11]

if you had to go over or under 68.5% turnout in the UK in 2015 at evens

over or under?

the only two replies went under

Ben Page, Ipsos MORI ‏@benatipsosmori

74% telling us certain to vote on Thursday. Almost certainly too high, but does suggest a rise from 65% turnout in 2010. 70% possible

good weather forcasted and someone said Scotland will be 10% more than last time.

[DMorgan]

Spoils go 9/4 70% or over turnout. Value? Can get Fred on if it wants

http://www.oddschecker.com/politics/british-politics/next-uk-general-election/turnout-banded

[TightEnd]

I suppose a big turnout in Scotland?

total electorate is 44m

scotland is 4.1m. if it goes from 63% to 80% it would move the 2010 figure for overall turnout up by less than a point, so to go over it needs england to turn out too

(i think it goes over, fwiw, though modestly weather dependent)