UK General Election 2015

[DMorgan]

I'm not disputing that it takes balls to take a risk and be  achieve immense financial success. I'm disputing the validity of shining a light on a very extreme case and using it as a metric to determine how hard people should work to be successful.

Then turning around and saying well everyone outside this top few percent didn't work hard enough, so we're going to use this as a pretext to justify huge tax breaks for the wealthiest and to reduce the size of the state which disproportionately affects the bottom 50? 60? 80?%

If the world that we live in was a 100% pure meritocracy where everyone got out what they put in then I would be completely agreeing with you, but we don't live in that world. Its hard to see this from the other side of the fence. The thing that we are all the most blind to is our own privilege. Especially so when very rich and powerful people with huge interests in maintaining the status quo run the majority of the media and broadcast that message every day.

Since we don't live in that pure meritocracy, I believe that its fair and right that the very wealthiest individuals and corporations contribute more and that the most effective way to make that contribution count is to lift everyone from the bottom via education, public services and good universal healthcare. Not by stuffing even more money into the pockets of the super rich because apparently we need them to give us all jobs and they might all leave if they are asked to contribute more.

I'm not arguing for a return to the 83% top rate of tax that existed before Thatcher and I'm not trying to demonise the wealthy and successful. I don't begrudge Denise and other business owners their fortunes, but I do think that by taking an extra few percent from their millions and injecting it into the bottom and the middle of the wealth distribution can make this country a better place for everyone at relatively little cost to those at the top.

[arbboy]

Trying to equate gambling to the 'real' world doesn't work.

We live in a bubble where we are essentially self employed in a highly niche market.  Obv we get help from mates, contacts but the majority of our success will be down to us.  There is huge survivor bias too.

In the 'real' world everything is far more connected and complicated to compare.

Course it works, running a business and gambling are the same thing, most stsrt up businesses fail the same as most start up lol pro gamblers fail. There is a reason every time, the ones who fail are not focused enough work hard enough or are smart enough. There is no difference.

[aaron1867]

Arb, you do seem to go OTT with everything you say. Ladbrokes aren't close to "busto", they are just struggling. In the sense that you say that, you would suspect Tesco are close to busto too. However, do you have anything non gambling related to talk about?

I do agree however that it does take a little risk now and again. I think it was around 16 months ago when I went to the bank for a loan. At this point I owed the bank £35,000 already, but my loans from the bank was always being paid back on time & I had my own capital too. I had gone to the bank asking for a lot more from the bank and given the go-ashed, I was in another world when they accepted my plans. However the risk was huge and weeks later I decided not to go ahead with this as simply my balls was too small! So it probably takes a bit of risk sometimes. It did of course take a lot of hard work to get there, BUT it also took a huge amount of luck that I was able to walk into a simply good position.

[arbboy]

Arb, you do seem to go OTT with everything you say. Ladbrokes aren't close to "busto", they are just struggling. In the sense that you say that, you would suspect Tesco are close to busto too. However, do you have anything non gambling related to talk about?

I do agree however that it does take a little risk now and again. I think it was around 16 months ago when I went to the bank for a loan. At this point I owed the bank £35,000 already, but my loans from the bank was always being paid back on time & I had my own capital too. I had gone to the bank asking for a lot more from the bank and given the go-ashed, I was in another world when they accepted my plans. However the risk was huge and weeks later I decided not to go ahead with this as simply my balls was too small! So it probably takes a bit of risk sometimes. It did of course take a lot of hard work to get there, BUT it also took a huge amount of luck that I was able to walk into a simply good position.

Lolbrokees have effectively gone into administration in Ireland, if labour win the election lolbrokees are fucked, they are fucked as we now them anyway the fact we are talking about the 'worlds biggest bookmaker ' is busto. Effectively without roulette machines.  They have no business without the machines

[scotty77]

Anyone successful at anything can find comparisons to being a successful gambler/poker player and try and claim they are the same.  

I've seen Nadal compare Tennis to poker, Ronaldo Football, Vanessa Rousseu being a nightclub .

The real world isn't as black and white as gambling. We can put in volume to override the variance.  Most people can't.  They generally have 1 shot.

And so many peoples lives are a product of their upbringing.  It isn't simply the case of work hard.

What chance has the child of a drug addict got?  Or coming from an abusive home?  Or someone who chose to stay and care for their sick parents rather than go to University? Or someone who the school system failed entirely and got to being an adult without knowing how to read or write.

There are millions of people out there who were effectively drawing dead before they were even born.

[Woodsey]

Anyone successful at anything can find comparisons to being a successful gambler/poker player and try and claim they are the same.  

I've seen Nadal compare Tennis to poker, Ronaldo Football, Vanessa Rousseu being a nightclub .

The real world isn't as black and white as gambling. We can put in volume to override the variance.  Most people can't.  They generally have 1 shot.

And so many peoples lives are a product of their upbringing.  It isn't simply the case of work hard.

What chance has the child of a drug addict got?  Or coming from an abusive home?  Or someone who chose to stay and care for their sick parents rather than go to University? Or someone who the school system failed entirely and got to being an adult without knowing how to read or write.

There are millions of people out there who were effectively drawing dead before they were even born.

I don't care what background people come from, people nearly always have the choice to improve themselves and move up the ladder if they really want to. Sure if they start on a lower rung of the ladder they may not be able to climb as high, but they can still climb up the ladder from where they were and improve their lives if they want to if they make the right choices and work hard and are determined to move up. I simply don't accept most people can't improve their lot somewhat if they really want to.

[BigAdz]

good thread this, shame about people using foul language though

Behave

I think this thread is very well mannered on the most part, and you're certainly likely to hear worse language anytime you walk down the street.

Some people just have to say something, even when they have nothing to contribute.

[arbboy]

Anyone successful at anything can find comparisons to being a successful gambler/poker player and try and claim they are the same.  

I've seen Nadal compare Tennis to poker, Ronaldo Football, Vanessa Rousseu being a nightclub .

The real world isn't as black and white as gambling. We can put in volume to override the variance.  Most people can't.  They generally have 1 shot.

And so many peoples lives are a product of their upbringing.  It isn't simply the case of work hard.

What chance has the child of a drug addict got?  Or coming from an abusive home?  Or someone who chose to stay and care for their sick parents rather than go to University? Or someone who the school system failed entirely and got to being an adult without knowing how to read or write.

There are millions of people out there who were effectively drawing dead before they were even born.

I don't care what background people come from, people nearly always have the choice to improve themselves and move up the ladder if they really want to. Sure if they start on a lower rung of the ladder they may not be able to climb as high, but they can still climb up the ladder from where they were and improve their lives if they want to if they make the right choices and work hard and are determined to move up. I simply don't accept most people can't improve their lot somewhat if they really want to.

Most people don't want to put the work in. That's the reason. Me included . You can do whatever you want regardless if you work hard enough. That's what Tory England is all about,

[mulhuzz]

Some people need to look up the figures for social mobility (and a few others need to start with the definition!) before making absolutely ludicrous claims.

[BigAdz]

There is a great piece by John major in today's telegraph which I would ask any hard working labour voter with aspirations to better themselves and their family to read and tell me how you can vote labour?

yeah, the only people who want to work hard and better themselves are Tory voters.

and the people who are well off got there by hard work and moxy alone. absolutely tiresome bollocks.

Not tiresome at all, most of the wealthy people I know got there by hard word and a willingness to take a risk. It's such shite to suggest otherwise for the most part. I think a lot of it is just jealously from people who either don't have a big enough pair of bollocks to go out their and change their life and simply let their life go by without making a real effort to change things if they aren't happy with their lot.

Of course, the implication in your post is that those who are not wealthy don't work hard. And plenty of wealthy people got there by luck - right place at the right time. Other people who made the same life decisions and worked just as hard didn't get lucky.

There also seems to be some implication that rich people vote Tory, poor people vote Labour. Surely that makes Labour a shoe in every time?!

[arbboy]

There is a great piece by John major in today's telegraph which I would ask any hard working labour voter with aspirations to better themselves and their family to read and tell me how you can vote labour?

yeah, the only people who want to work hard and better themselves are Tory voters.

and the people who are well off got there by hard work and moxy alone. absolutely tiresome bollocks.

Not tiresome at all, most of the wealthy people I know got there by hard word and a willingness to take a risk. It's such shite to suggest otherwise for the most part. I think a lot of it is just jealously from people who either don't have a big enough pair of bollocks to go out their and change their life and simply let their life go by without making a real effort to change things if they aren't happy with their lot.

Of course, the implication in your post is that those who are not wealthy don't work hard. And plenty of wealthy people got there by luck - right place at the right time. Other people who made the same life decisions and worked just as hard didn't get lucky.

There also seems to be some implication that rich people vote Tory, poor people vote Labour. Surely that makes Labour a shoe in every time?!

That is why red ed needs to get a job finally in the real job. If he can't walk into power this year he literally has no chance. The vast majority of people who vote Tory earn less than 30k.

[scotty77]

The suggestion that simply working hard can potentially overcome physical, mental and social barriers is absolutely laughable.

Yes, there are plenty of success stories of people doing just that but these are certainly in the minority.

Surely as poker players you should have the ability to even acknowledge that people's thought processes are entirely unique?

[TightEnd]

i keep trying to change the subject to calmer waters

ICM were the most accurate pollster in 05 and 10

their final poll is out

ICM has CON & LAB level pegging

CON 35%
LAB 35%
UKIP 11%
LD 9%
GRN 3%

[Woodsey]

The suggestion that simply working hard can potentially overcome physical, mental and social barriers is absolutely laughable.

Yes, there are plenty of success stories of people doing just that but these are certainly in the minority.

Surely as poker players you should have the ability to even acknowledge that people's thought processes are entirely unique?

I don't think anyone has said simply working hard is enough have they? (or if they have its been clarified in other posts). Its a combo or hard work, the right decisions, determination to succeed, making the most of opportunities when they arise etc. Sombody with all that will find themselves with enough 'lucky spots' that they are highky likely to improve their lot eventually.

[doubleup]

Edit: got it, 14/1 now

https://www.skybet.com/politics/general-election/event/17479051

cheers

massive enormous price

next prime minister is 10/11 each of two

for one of those 10/11 shots

Cam is going to need DUP and their 9 MPs

so if you are of the view that Conservative get 280+ and LD get 30ish then the only hope they have is to get DUP's 9 in

the only way Cam wouldn't need DUP is if Conservative got nearly 300 (depending on the final LD number)


for the other 10/11 shot, minority government is obviously far more likely than any coalition, but Lab/SNP could fall short of 323 (270+50, say) and Lab-SDLP might be in a coalition then relying on SNP vote by vote

18-1 now 14-1 staggered me

if i am missing something, please speak up!

Obviously Skybet's definition of "coalition" is the key.  No matter who wins, a NI party will support the government - the sdlp will support labour and the unionists will support the tories.  I imagine the definition will involve being in the government and not simply a declaration of support.