UK General Election 2015

[Doobs]

Come on Arb - even if we just take a large pool of self driven people who start their own business it won't just be the hardest working that make it big.  Something as remote as the strength of the pound in the company's infancy can have a huge bearing.  A big customer goes bust when they owe you settlement on a big contract.  Etc Etc Etc.

Sure but those issues face everyone in the same market place. The winners manage the risk better than others and don't putnthemselves In a spot to be under the cosh.  Smart businesses don't expose themselves to huge risks of one customer defaulting on them,  this is what I call working hard. Managing risk. To most people that isn't hard work because you are not in a factory working your tits off etc but this is the working hard I am talking about.  Covering every base. Minimising risk. That is hard work and plenty of firms do it the cheap way and don't do their homework to try and make a quick buck and get burnt.  Just like punters who think laying jollies blind on bf think it is a licence to print,  it is a tough world out there and all the hard graft isn't about getting your hands dirty but about working harder than others to reduce these risks.

One person starts a business 5 years after another.  They face vastly different macro scenarios.

Small businesses have no choice but to expose themselves to defaults of large customers.  90 days settlement periods are common - the larger companies have you by the smalls.  No long settlement period.  No contract.

It's not as simple as you make out to mitigate risk.

Why was denise so successful then? Given the head starts she gave to all other businesses in her field? I know why. I have told you.  Hard work and being smart.  There is no such thing as luck over a ten year period,  you just aint good enough and or smart enough if you fail.  Running a business is the same as being a pro punter, you deal with risk every year day in day out.. How you choose to manage it is the control you have,  winners always win over a ten year period, losers always blame someone else because their ego needs stroking that they weren't a failure when others were successful.

Sorry to sound harsh but that is the reality. 

Aren't you always banging on about sample size?  

Though there is undoubtably some correlation between working hard and getting rich, it doesn't mean that everybody who works hard gest rich, or everyone who is lazy stays poor.  

I know a fair few brillianbt people who have done very well, but every board of directors has a blithering idiot or two on it.  

You go on about Denise Coates, but I am sure some of the Ladbrokes board aren't making regular visits to the local foodbank.

[arbboy]

The ladbrokes board are not at food banks because they are a Plc,  if they worked for 365 they would have been fired years ago.

[arbboy]

Let's get back to the election though I have taken this far away from the original subject. My apologies

[TightEnd]

can someone help please?

apparently Skybet have 18-1 any NI party being involved in a coalition

i can't find it on site or oddschecker

does this price/market exist?

thanks

[DMorgan]

Edit: got it, 14/1 now

https://www.skybet.com/politics/general-election/event/17479051

[TightEnd]

Let's get back to the election though I have taken this far away from the original subject. My apologies

I think what you are missing, put broadly, is the idea of a social conscience....the idea that helping others less fortunate is desirable and should be part of government ethos and policy

if i am wrong on that, fair enough, but reading your stuff i have to say that Denise coates is a pretty special case. got £15m from the banks up front to build her business to start with, i think...not so easy to get that today even if you have a great idea or a great small business. timing is importannt

even she has a £100m charitable trust set up to give back a lot into society too

[arbboy]

Let's get back to the election though I have taken this far away from the original subject. My apologies

I think what you are missing, put broadly, is the idea of a social conscience....the idea that helping others less fortunate is desirable and should be part of government ethos and policy

if i am wrong on that, fair enough, but reading your stuff i have to say that Denise coates is a pretty special case. got £15m from the banks up front to build her business to start with, i think...not so easy to get that today even if you have a great idea or a great small business. timing is importannt

even she has a £100m charitable trust set up to give back a lot into society too

She only got £15m from the banks because she was willing to RISK the whole family silver ie 50 betting shops in Stoke. It wasn't an unsecured loan. They put the whole family roll on the table which focuses the mind a lot more than most lol lolbrokees directors who couldn't give a fuck. That is the real reason why lolbrokees is close to busto and 365 are flying. It wasn't easy to get a £15m loan in those days either unless you were willing to sign over the family silver which they did.

Then they sold off the said betting shops overpriced to coral for million a shop ( London prices in Stoke lolzzzz) in Stoke in 2005 who were desperate to keep up with hills and lolbrokees numbers wise because they knew the shops were a terrible investment of cash compared to pumping it into the future ie online.  They have been nothing but miles ahead of the game for 15 years which is the sole reason why they are crushing the game.  Please lefties stop saying you have to be in the right place at the right time and give some respect to winners who are five years ahead of everyone else in the game.  It is not luck why 365 are massive, they like pads are just better than you and work harder, hence why they win.

[TightEnd]

Edit: got it, 14/1 now

https://www.skybet.com/politics/general-election/event/17479051

cheers

massive enormous price

next prime minister is 10/11 each of two

for one of those 10/11 shots

Cam is going to need DUP and their 9 MPs

so if you are of the view that Conservative get 280+ and LD get 30ish then the only hope they have is to get DUP's 9 in

the only way Cam wouldn't need DUP is if Conservative got nearly 300 (depending on the final LD number)


for the other 10/11 shot, minority government is obviously far more likely than any coalition, but Lab/SNP could fall short of 323 (270+50, say) and Lab-SDLP might be in a coalition then relying on SNP vote by vote

18-1 now 14-1 staggered me

if i am missing something, please speak up!

[TightEnd]

Let's get back to the election though I have taken this far away from the original subject. My apologies

I think what you are missing, put broadly, is the idea of a social conscience....the idea that helping others less fortunate is desirable and should be part of government ethos and policy

if i am wrong on that, fair enough, but reading your stuff i have to say that Denise coates is a pretty special case. got £15m from the banks up front to build her business to start with, i think...not so easy to get that today even if you have a great idea or a great small business. timing is importannt

even she has a £100m charitable trust set up to give back a lot into society too

She only got £15m from the banks because she was willing to RISK the whole family silver ie 50 betting shops in Stoke. It wasn't an unsecured loan. They put the whole family roll on the table which focuses the mind a lot more than most lol lolbrokees directors who couldn't give a fuck. That is the real reason why lolbrokees is close to busto and 365 are flying. It wasn't easy to get a £15m loan in those days either unless you were willing to sign over the family silver which they did.

understand that, but you are glossing over some people/voter's "reason for being" which is society, helping others etc etc

[DMorgan]

She only got £15m from the banks because she was willing to RISK the whole family silver ie 50 betting shops in Stoke. It wasn't an unsecured loan. They put the whole family roll on the table which focuses the mind a lot more than most lol lolbrokees directors who couldn't give a fuck.

So all it takes is hard work and enough assets to secure an enormous loan. Now we're getting closer.

[arbboy]

She only got £15m from the banks because she was willing to RISK the whole family silver ie 50 betting shops in Stoke. It wasn't an unsecured loan. They put the whole family roll on the table which focuses the mind a lot more than most lol lolbrokees directors who couldn't give a fuck.

So all it takes is hard work and enough assets to secure an enormous loan. Now we're getting closer.

But it takes huge balls to go to your dad and say ' dad you are worth £15m in Stoke fancy punting the lot on a start up dot com business?' It might be worth £10bn  in 2015. You might be able to buy stoke back if we win the flip and buy Peter crouch .

I could list ten online firms which were skint within five years of bet365 starting up who probably had bigger backing financially than 365 had

[TightEnd]

this is well worth a read

pollster Anthony Wells breaks down the key areas to watch and gives a final forecast

http://ukpollingreport.co.uk/blog/archives/9377

[scotty77]

Trying to equate gambling to the 'real' world doesn't work.

We live in a bubble where we are essentially self employed in a highly niche market.  Obv we get help from mates, contacts but the majority of our success will be down to us.  There is huge survivor bias too.

In the 'real' world everything is far more connected and complicated to compare.

[mulhuzz]

http://www.express.co.uk/comment/expresscomment/575148/Vote-Ukip-patriotic-Britain

jesus. the hypocrisy is amazing.

[MANTIS01]

Working hard is just one factor, the quality of decisions you make is equally vital. If two guys join a gym and one researches the best exercise programmes, the correct techniques and the right diet he will make much speedier progress than his equally hard working but less well researched colleague. So sure, some people will work hard but not progress and that's down to how skilfully they make life enhancing decisions. To suggest most people don't have the opportunity to make solid decisions and work hard to progress in Great Britain is fanciful imo. Maybe try living in some other countries and see the difference??