UK General Election 2015

[Marky147]

good thread this, shame about people using foul language though

Behave

I think this thread is very well mannered on the most part, and you're certainly likely to hear worse language anytime you walk down the street.

[mulhuzz]

the science says that luck plays a massive factor.

so does anybody intelligent. it's not worth arguing about, this is a proven fact.

[DungBeetle]

I'm a Tory voter but I don't agree with this line of argument.  Lots of people work hard and seek to better themselves but don't earn a great deal, whether that be by not being in place when an opportunity arises, or making a poor career decision.  Or maybe they are smart and work hard but just ended up at a poor school.

The best government would put infrastructure in place to allow everyone who gets on and works hard to progress.  Labour don't do this, but I'm not sure the Tories do either (for a different reason).

[DMorgan]

The link between how hard you work and how wealthy you become is pretty lol. Is everyone making <£30k/yr an excuse maker that doesn't work hard enough?

Theres so much confirmation bias. Its always the people that are 'successful' (but his means different things to different people) that promote this link between hard work and wealth. Pretty much everyone thinks that they work/worked hard.

My parents generation who had home ownership gifted to them with a pretty label that read '1% mortgage' think that they worked hard. People get affronted when you suggest that their wealth is hugely determined by the social situation and the economic environment that they existed in, but its clearly true.

[arbboy]

the science says that luck plays a massive factor.

so does anybody intelligent. it's not worth arguing about, this is a proven fact.

No it doesn't. Within one day of meeting denise Coates and joining bet365 in 2001 I knew this firm was going to be massive.  You are talking like a mug who has never run a business or put your balls on the line in your life.  There literally is no variance over a 15 year period. Pads thinks every winning cash player should never have a losing month never mind run bad over fifteen years.

[DungBeetle]

Come on Arb - even if we just take a large pool of self driven people who start their own business it won't just be the hardest working that make it big.  Something as remote as the strength of the pound in the company's infancy can have a huge bearing.  A big customer goes bust when they owe you settlement on a big contract.  Etc Etc Etc.

[DMorgan]

Do you regret not working hard enough to have the capital to invest in what you knew would be a superstar business?

[arbboy]

Come on Arb - even if we just take a large pool of self driven people who start their own business it won't just be the hardest working that make it big.  Something as remote as the strength of the pound in the company's infancy can have a huge bearing.  A big customer goes bust when they owe you settlement on a big contract.  Etc Etc Etc.

Sure but those issues face everyone in the same market place. The winners manage the risk better than others and don't putnthemselves In a spot to be under the cosh.  Smart businesses don't expose themselves to huge risks of one customer defaulting on them,  this is what I call working hard. Managing risk. To most people that isn't hard work because you are not in a factory working your tits off etc but this is the working hard I am talking about.  Covering every base. Minimising risk. That is hard work and plenty of firms do it the cheap way and don't do their homework to try and make a quick buck and get burnt.  Just like punters who think laying jollies blind on bf think it is a licence to print,  it is a tough world out there and all the hard graft isn't about getting your hands dirty but about working harder than others to reduce these risks.

[arbboy]

Do you regret not working hard enough to have the capital to invest in what you knew would be a superstar business?

I love 365 with a passion, they gave me my chance in the game and I choose to move on in 2003. I respect everyone that works there.  I have no regrets of leaving.  I don't crave a huge materialistic lifestyle and I wouldn't want to work the hours denise did in the early days and deal with the shit I witnssed her deal with.  If I had never left I would ne'er have met so many people who helped shape my life in the following years,  I know most of the senior guys there still and they love the security they have working there. I always wanted to work for myself but have a lifestyle I wanted as well without being tied to the corporate world.  I am very lucky with my lot but I have worked very hard to get it.

[DungBeetle]

Come on Arb - even if we just take a large pool of self driven people who start their own business it won't just be the hardest working that make it big.  Something as remote as the strength of the pound in the company's infancy can have a huge bearing.  A big customer goes bust when they owe you settlement on a big contract.  Etc Etc Etc.

Sure but those issues face everyone in the same market place. The winners manage the risk better than others and don't putnthemselves In a spot to be under the cosh.  Smart businesses don't expose themselves to huge risks of one customer defaulting on them,  this is what I call working hard. Managing risk. To most people that isn't hard work because you are not in a factory working your tits off etc but this is the working hard I am talking about.  Covering every base. Minimising risk. That is hard work and plenty of firms do it the cheap way and don't do their homework to try and make a quick buck and get burnt.  Just like punters who think laying jollies blind on bf think it is a licence to print,  it is a tough world out there and all the hard graft isn't about getting your hands dirty but about working harder than others to reduce these risks.

One person starts a business 5 years after another.  They face vastly different macro scenarios.

Small businesses have no choice but to expose themselves to defaults of large customers.  90 days settlement periods are common - the larger companies have you by the smalls.  No long settlement period.  No contract.

It's not as simple as you make out to mitigate risk.

[arbboy]

Come on Arb - even if we just take a large pool of self driven people who start their own business it won't just be the hardest working that make it big.  Something as remote as the strength of the pound in the company's infancy can have a huge bearing.  A big customer goes bust when they owe you settlement on a big contract.  Etc Etc Etc.

Sure but those issues face everyone in the same market place. The winners manage the risk better than others and don't putnthemselves In a spot to be under the cosh.  Smart businesses don't expose themselves to huge risks of one customer defaulting on them,  this is what I call working hard. Managing risk. To most people that isn't hard work because you are not in a factory working your tits off etc but this is the working hard I am talking about.  Covering every base. Minimising risk. That is hard work and plenty of firms do it the cheap way and don't do their homework to try and make a quick buck and get burnt.  Just like punters who think laying jollies blind on bf think it is a licence to print,  it is a tough world out there and all the hard graft isn't about getting your hands dirty but about working harder than others to reduce these risks.

One person starts a business 5 years after another.  They face vastly different macro scenarios.

Small businesses have no choice but to expose themselves to defaults of large customers.  90 days settlement periods are common - the larger companies have you by the smalls.  No long settlement period.  No contract.

It's not as simple as you make out to mitigate risk.

Why was denise so successful then? Given the head starts she gave to all other businesses in her field? I know why. I have told you.  Hard work and being smart.  There is no such thing as luck over a ten year period,  you just aint good enough and or smart enough if you fail.  Running a business is the same as being a pro punter, you deal with risk every year day in day out.. How you choose to manage it is the control you have,  winners always win over a ten year period, losers always blame someone else because their ego needs stroking that they weren't a failure when others were successful.

Sorry to sound harsh but that is the reality. 

[mulhuzz]

Come on Arb - even if we just take a large pool of self driven people who start their own business it won't just be the hardest working that make it big.  Something as remote as the strength of the pound in the company's infancy can have a huge bearing.  A big customer goes bust when they owe you settlement on a big contract.  Etc Etc Etc.

Sure but those issues face everyone in the same market place. The winners manage the risk better than others and don't putnthemselves In a spot to be under the cosh.  Smart businesses don't expose themselves to huge risks of one customer defaulting on them,  this is what I call working hard. Managing risk. To most people that isn't hard work because you are not in a factory working your tits off etc but this is the working hard I am talking about.  Covering every base. Minimising risk. That is hard work and plenty of firms do it the cheap way and don't do their homework to try and make a quick buck and get burnt.  Just like punters who think laying jollies blind on bf think it is a licence to print,  it is a tough world out there and all the hard graft isn't about getting your hands dirty but about working harder than others to reduce these risks.

One person starts a business 5 years after another.  They face vastly different macro scenarios.

Small businesses have no choice but to expose themselves to defaults of large customers.  90 days settlement periods are common - the larger companies have you by the smalls.  No long settlement period.  No contract.

It's not as simple as you make out to mitigate risk.

Why was denise so successful then? Given the head starts she gave to all other businesses in her field? I know why. I have told you.  Hard work and being smart.  There is no such thing as luck over a ten year period,  you just aint good enough and or smart enough if you fail.  Running a business is the same as being a pro punter, you deal with risk every year day in day out.. How you choose to manage it is the control you have,  winners always win over a ten year period, losers always blame someone else because their ego needs stroking that they weren't a failure when others were successful.

Sorry to sound harsh but that is the reality. 

no, it isn't the reality.

think of it like a market. let's imagine a perfect market where everyone is as good/smart/hardworking as the lady who started bet365.

Let's say that market has 100 participants.

You think 100 people can be successful?

Because that's not how economics works. The maths, for someone who uses it to make what I gather is a rather decent living, is really lacking here.

Why is it the case that there is definitive correlation between sporting prowess and when you're born (relative to school cut-offs)?

Go and read Outliers and then you can see, that in scienticially controlled studies, luck exists. Initial conditions exist. It's not fucking rocket science, which is why I'm recommending Malcolm Gladwell, not some actual academic literature.

[arbboy]

Come on Arb - even if we just take a large pool of self driven people who start their own business it won't just be the hardest working that make it big.  Something as remote as the strength of the pound in the company's infancy can have a huge bearing.  A big customer goes bust when they owe you settlement on a big contract.  Etc Etc Etc.

Sure but those issues face everyone in the same market place. The winners manage the risk better than others and don't putnthemselves In a spot to be under the cosh.  Smart businesses don't expose themselves to huge risks of one customer defaulting on them,  this is what I call working hard. Managing risk. To most people that isn't hard work because you are not in a factory working your tits off etc but this is the working hard I am talking about.  Covering every base. Minimising risk. That is hard work and plenty of firms do it the cheap way and don't do their homework to try and make a quick buck and get burnt.  Just like punters who think laying jollies blind on bf think it is a licence to print,  it is a tough world out there and all the hard graft isn't about getting your hands dirty but about working harder than others to reduce these risks.

One person starts a business 5 years after another.  They face vastly different macro scenarios.

Small businesses have no choice but to expose themselves to defaults of large customers.  90 days settlement periods are common - the larger companies have you by the smalls.  No long settlement period.  No contract.

It's not as simple as you make out to mitigate risk.

Why was denise so successful then? Given the head starts she gave to all other businesses in her field? I know why. I have told you.  Hard work and being smart.  There is no such thing as luck over a ten year period,  you just aint good enough and or smart enough if you fail.  Running a business is the same as being a pro punter, you deal with risk every year day in day out.. How you choose to manage it is the control you have,  winners always win over a ten year period, losers always blame someone else because their ego needs stroking that they weren't a failure when others were successful.

Sorry to sound harsh but that is the reality. 

no, it isn't the reality.

think of it like a market. let's imagine a perfect market where everyone is as good/smart/hardworking as the lady who started bet365.

Let's say that market has 100 participants.

You think 100 people can be successful?

Because that's not how economics works. The maths, for someone who uses it to make what I gather is a rather decent living, is really lacking here.

Why is it the case that there is definitive correlation between sporting prowess and when you're born (relative to school cut-offs)?

Go and read Outliers and then you can see, that in scienticially controlled studies, luck exists. Initial conditions exist. It's not fucking rocket science, which is why I'm recommending Malcolm Gladwell, not some actual academic literature.

More leftie excuses for losing.  Become a winner and work harder and smarter and stop blaming others for your failure.

[Woodsey]

Well it's good to know people have an excuse for being mediocre or worse in life, That'll inspire the next generation of people to go out and achieve lol  

[arbboy]

Work as hard as denise and her family have for fifteen years and invest your money wisely and come back and tell me you can be a loser.  You can't over fifteen years if you manage risk correctly it is impossible.