UK General Election 2015

[TightEnd]

Edit: got it, 14/1 now

https://www.skybet.com/politics/general-election/event/17479051

cheers

massive enormous price

next prime minister is 10/11 each of two

for one of those 10/11 shots

Cam is going to need DUP and their 9 MPs

so if you are of the view that Conservative get 280+ and LD get 30ish then the only hope they have is to get DUP's 9 in

the only way Cam wouldn't need DUP is if Conservative got nearly 300 (depending on the final LD number)


for the other 10/11 shot, minority government is obviously far more likely than any coalition, but Lab/SNP could fall short of 323 (270+50, say) and Lab-SDLP might be in a coalition then relying on SNP vote by vote

18-1 now 14-1 staggered me

if i am missing something, please speak up!

Obviously Skybet's definition of "coalition" is the key.  No matter who wins, a NI party will support the government - the sdlp will support labour and the unionists will support the tories.  I imagine the definition will involve being in the government and not simply a declaration of support.

thanks yes

DUP will be formal coalition, i would have thought. 9 seats = a position or two in government too

SDLP might not be

big price (or was)

[arbboy]

The suggestion that simply working hard can potentially overcome physical, mental and social barriers is absolutely laughable.

Yes, there are plenty of success stories of people doing just that but these are certainly in the minority.

Surely as poker players you should have the ability to even acknowledge that people's thought processes are entirely unique?

I don't think anyone has said simply working hard is enough have they? (or if they have its been clarified in other posts). Its a combo or hard work, the right decisions, determination to succeed, making the most of opportunities when they arise etc. Sombody with all that will find themselves with enough 'lucky spots' that they are highky likely to improve their lot eventually.

Clever people work smarter not harder. This hard work is a myth, working smarter is the key not harder whatever that means, loads of people work hard not smart which is why they always moan about their lol luck .

[DungBeetle]

Edit: got it, 14/1 now

https://www.skybet.com/politics/general-election/event/17479051

cheers

massive enormous price

next prime minister is 10/11 each of two

for one of those 10/11 shots

Cam is going to need DUP and their 9 MPs

so if you are of the view that Conservative get 280+ and LD get 30ish then the only hope they have is to get DUP's 9 in

the only way Cam wouldn't need DUP is if Conservative got nearly 300 (depending on the final LD number)


for the other 10/11 shot, minority government is obviously far more likely than any coalition, but Lab/SNP could fall short of 323 (270+50, say) and Lab-SDLP might be in a coalition then relying on SNP vote by vote

18-1 now 14-1 staggered me

if i am missing something, please speak up!

Great bet imo.

[aaron1867]

A NI party surely can only be involved if Labour choose not to get into bed with SNP? As the predicted seats for both of these parties could get to 323, therefore there isn't any need for a party from NI?

But of course I appreciate how things stand that Lab/SNP is looking unlikely right now.

[doubleup]

Edit: got it, 14/1 now

https://www.skybet.com/politics/general-election/event/17479051

cheers

massive enormous price

next prime minister is 10/11 each of two

for one of those 10/11 shots

Cam is going to need DUP and their 9 MPs

so if you are of the view that Conservative get 280+ and LD get 30ish then the only hope they have is to get DUP's 9 in

the only way Cam wouldn't need DUP is if Conservative got nearly 300 (depending on the final LD number)


for the other 10/11 shot, minority government is obviously far more likely than any coalition, but Lab/SNP could fall short of 323 (270+50, say) and Lab-SDLP might be in a coalition then relying on SNP vote by vote

18-1 now 14-1 staggered me

if i am missing something, please speak up!

Obviously Skybet's definition of "coalition" is the key.  No matter who wins, a NI party will support the government - the sdlp will support labour and the unionists will support the tories.  I imagine the definition will involve being in the government and not simply a declaration of support.

thanks yes

DUP will be formal coalition, i would have thought. 9 seats = a position or two in government too

SDLP might not be

big price (or was)

I would be very surprised if that happened given NI political sensitivities.

[TightEnd]

A NI party surely can only be involved if Labour choose not to get into bed with SNP? As the predicted seats for both of these parties could get to 323, therefore there isn't any need for a party from NI?

But of course I appreciate how things stand that Lab/SNP is looking unlikely right now.

if Lab-SNP hits 323+ then yes, no need for green, plaid, northern ireland parties

if it doesn't, then any of the above could be part of a formal arrangement with labour, with a seperate "deal" or vote by vote arrangement with SNP tacked on

entirely possible

Lab may decide to coalesce with green, plaid, sdlp (lib dem maybe too) if it could get to say 300 and govern with no snp deal, gambling that the snp would not vote down their queens speech and risk putting the tories in.....

friday onwards is going to be a massive process with lots of moving parts depending on the final numbers

[TightEnd]

Edit: got it, 14/1 now

https://www.skybet.com/politics/general-election/event/17479051

cheers

massive enormous price

next prime minister is 10/11 each of two

for one of those 10/11 shots

Cam is going to need DUP and their 9 MPs

so if you are of the view that Conservative get 280+ and LD get 30ish then the only hope they have is to get DUP's 9 in

the only way Cam wouldn't need DUP is if Conservative got nearly 300 (depending on the final LD number)


for the other 10/11 shot, minority government is obviously far more likely than any coalition, but Lab/SNP could fall short of 323 (270+50, say) and Lab-SDLP might be in a coalition then relying on SNP vote by vote

18-1 now 14-1 staggered me

if i am missing something, please speak up!

Obviously Skybet's definition of "coalition" is the key.  No matter who wins, a NI party will support the government - the sdlp will support labour and the unionists will support the tories.  I imagine the definition will involve being in the government and not simply a declaration of support.

thanks yes

DUP will be formal coalition, i would have thought. 9 seats = a position or two in government too

SDLP might not be

big price (or was)

I would be very surprised if that happened given NI political sensitivities.

well the DUP are going to have to be chucked something right?

any party, even with 1 seat, is going to have to be chucked something starting friday, if you want them onside....

[doubleup]

http://www.paddypower.com/bet/politics/other-politics/uk-politics?ev_oc_grp_ids=282167

[Teacake]

I don think I've seen a grand coalition discussed on here, it's obviously highly unlikely but the way things are going you wouldn't rule anything out!

[Woodsey]

Reckon ive had stuff through the door every day for the last couple of weeks. Todays labour guy just did his drop off, why no knock at the door? Chicken lol?  upside down pic doh!

Click to see full-size image.

[TightEnd]

Q&A with Matthew Shaddick, head of political odds for Ladbrokes, about betting on Thursday's election: http://53eig.ht/1E8NQpW

[TightEnd]

I don think I've seen a grand coalition discussed on here, it's obviously highly unlikely but the way things are going you wouldn't rule anything out!

like in Germany

would be one way of not having the SNP in westminster government i suppose....(not totally serious!)

[The Camel]

Reckon ive had stuff through the door every day for the last couple of weeks. Todays labour guy just did his drop off, why no knock at the door? Chicken lol?  upside down pic doh!

Click to see full-size image.

I know I live in the countryside, but I almost feel disenfranchised.

Not 1 leaflet, pollster or canvasser all election.

I'd even offer a UKIPer in for a cuppa if they turned up tonight.

[arbboy]

Reckon ive had stuff through the door every day for the last couple of weeks. Todays labour guy just did his drop off, why no knock at the door? Chicken lol?  upside down pic doh!

Click to see full-size image.

I know I live in the countryside, but I almost feel disenfranchised.

Not 1 leaflet, pollster or canvasser all election.

I'd even offer a UKIPer in for a cuppa if they turned up tonight.

you love living in the middle of nowhere.  You know your vote is worthless.  Don't cry about the lack of paper through the door.  I would love peace and quiet!

[AndrewT]

For the NI coalition bet to scoop then you'd need Tory/Lib Dem/UKIP to be big enough for 8/9 seats to make a difference (or Labour/SNP/Lib Dem to be small enough for the SDLP to be needed, but that's an edge case).

So you're looking at Tory/Lib Dem/UKIP being around 315-320.

On top of this though, you'd need the Lib Dems to want to get back into bed with the Tories, which becomes a lot less likely if Clegg falls, so that has to be priced in.