UK General Election 2015

[TightEnd]

nate silver....

What we got wrong in our 2015 U.K. general election model: http://53eig.ht/1KRqqu6 

[Woodsey]

 

http://blogs.spectator.co.uk/coffeehouse/2015/05/the-biggest-loser-of-the-night-russell-brand/

[mulhuzz]

I've been reading European newspapers' reactions to the result.

in Germany they are dreading a possible Brexit and think Cameron will negotiate hard but ultimately a solution can be found.

However a German CSU (Christian Socialist Union - but basically Tories) MEP has stated that 'Britain voted with it's wallet, Europe wasn't a factor in this election' and he, according to the paper 'pointed to the weak results of the anti-Europe UKIP party to illustrate his point'.

I think that might be the strangest interpretation of the result so far.  I would think most would consider the results an almost unbridled success for Mr Farage and his bunch of sabrerattlers.

I hope his opinion isn't shared by other MEPs/governments in Europe, else they will sleepwalk into Brexit.

[RickBFA]

Labour will be pulled THREE ways: should it be anti-immigration to counter UKIP; centrist to win middle England; or leftist to win Scotland?

anti-immigration? it lost ground to UKIP in a lot of seats, particularly its seats in the noprth of england

centrist? middle england marginals might accept blair's soft-red policies, but doesn't like leftish policies

scotland? scotland wants socialism, not blairism


which way should labour go?

Its interesting how quickly things change, I'm sure someone earlier in this thread was saying the era of Tories getting a majority was gone.

Now Labour look like they have a real dilemma about their direction and ability to govern again in the foreseeable future.

[mulhuzz]

Labour will be pulled THREE ways: should it be anti-immigration to counter UKIP; centrist to win middle England; or leftist to win Scotland?

anti-immigration? it lost ground to UKIP in a lot of seats, particularly its seats in the noprth of england

centrist? middle england marginals might accept blair's soft-red policies, but doesn't like leftish policies

scotland? scotland wants socialism, not blairism


which way should labour go?

Its interesting how quickly things change, I'm sure someone earlier in this thread was saying the era of Tories getting a majority was gone.

Now Labour look like they have a real dilemma about their direction and ability to govern again in the foreseeable future.

was just thinking about this point. I wanted to say that I can't see a Labour majority for a generation without healing in Scotland and Middle England. BUt things do change very quickly.

Most of all I'm mourning for British Liberalism. I think it's an important thing to have represented and it's been wiped out.

I can't decide if voters have rejected liberalism, or if they've rejected the liberal democrats.

[mulhuzz]

I think that might be the strangest interpretation of the result so far.  

I take it back: this is the weirdest reaction, from the former labour spin doctor and all round terrible human Damian McBride:

Mark my words, the Tories will regret winning this election, and they won't have anyone else to blame this time.

what the actual fuck? Is he high? Probably.

[DungBeetle]

Ha. What does McBride do these days?  I think he's okay to be fair.  Made no secret of his role under Brown (admittedly pushed it to the limit)

[mulhuzz]

Ha. What does McBride do these days?  I think he's okay to be fair.  Made no secret of his role under Brown (admittedly pushed it to the limit)

He's head of Media at CAFOD. indeed. hmmm.

[EvilPie]

The fact that UKIP got so many votes but so few seats is also fantastic. It shows that their policies have genuine clout and must be integrated in to labour/conservative policy where possible in the future if they want to secure greater numbers.

All this demonstrates is our voting system is deeply flawed HOWEVER if it delivers strong government then the argument for it is at least more relevant.

I can't help but think the main thing I'll take away from this election is how disengaged people really are from politics. Most don't know how the voting system works and when I tried to talk about the subject to my 17 yo twins they weren't in the least bit interested

Yes it's a flaw but it's handy to be able to make a symbolic statement with your vote sometimes without actually worrying that you're granting any real powers.

Do you think UKIP would have got the same number of votes if we had a different system where literally every vote counted towards getting someone in Parliament?

[Woodsey]

The fact that UKIP got so many votes but so few seats is also fantastic. It shows that their policies have genuine clout and must be integrated in to labour/conservative policy where possible in the future if they want to secure greater numbers.

All this demonstrates is our voting system is deeply flawed HOWEVER if it delivers strong government then the argument for it is at least more relevant.

I can't help but think the main thing I'll take away from this election is how disengaged people really are from politics. Most don't know how the voting system works and when I tried to talk about the subject to my 17 yo twins they weren't in the least bit interested

Yes it's a flaw but it's handy to be able to make a symbolic statement with your vote sometimes without actually worrying that you're granting any real powers.

Do you think UKIP would have got the same number of votes if we had a different system where literally every vote counted towards getting someone in Parliament?

The option of PR would have 80+ UKIP MP's in parliament. I think a lot would re-think that option if they knew that.

[StuartHopkin]

May as well keep learning while this thread is going...

Anyone (mulhuzz?) care to give 5 bullet points why exiting the EU would be bad?

I cant get my head round it..

Exchange rate not effected as we aren't on the Euro
Immigration tightened as we can require visa's etc different for each country
Trade relations, as long as their are no strange duties introduced then everything will just continue as is

What am I missing?

[EvilPie]

May as well keep learning while this thread is going...

Anyone (mulhuzz?) care to give 5 bullet points why exiting the EU would be bad?

I cant get my head round it..

Exchange rate not effected as we aren't on the Euro
Immigration tightened as we can require visa's etc different for each country
Trade relations, as long as their are no strange duties introduced then everything will just continue as is

What am I missing?

THERE!!!!! Learn that!!!!

[RickBFA]

Personally I'm not either anti or pro EU but do think we will still continue trading with EU if we left and don't buy the argument that it will cost hundreds of thousands of jobs as the scaremongers would have you believe.

Right now the Eurozone is screwed economically, they need as many trading partners as they can find!!!

 

[doubleup]

May as well keep learning while this thread is going...

Anyone (mulhuzz?) care to give 5 bullet points why exiting the EU would be bad?

I cant get my head round it..

Exchange rate not effected as we aren't on the Euro
Immigration tightened as we can require visa's etc different for each country
Trade relations, as long as their are no strange duties introduced then everything will just continue as is

What am I missing?

All our trade agreement are via the EU.  We would not be able to export anything at all until trade agreements were renegotiated which takes years.  If we chose to still remain in the EEA, we would have to comply with all trade directives and would have no say in their drafting.

Any EU visa changes would be tit for tat affecting everyone holidaying.  Removing the freedom to work in any EU countries would reduce output considerably.

[George2Loose]

Labours rebuild job is similar to the Tories post Hague. Maybe the Tories will implode or maybe people just fancy a change every now and then