UK General Election 2015

[TightEnd]

Labour will be pulled THREE ways: should it be anti-immigration to counter UKIP; centrist to win middle England; or leftist to win Scotland?

anti-immigration? it lost ground to UKIP in a lot of seats, particularly its seats in the noprth of england

centrist? middle england marginals might accept blair's soft-red policies, but doesn't like leftish policies

scotland? scotland wants socialism, not blairism


which way should labour go?

[mikeymike]

As probably the only person in the UK to predict a tory majority - wish i gambled would have made a small fortune

Well done Cameron for rolling up his sleeves at least he is guaranteed two years as leader until Borisf steps in.

Good luck to Nick Clegg - who genuinely stepped in to a coalition believing that it would stabilise the country and to a large extent it did.

Well done Nigel Farage - who was constantly bashed as a racist - but stuck to his guns on immigration and Europe - i think he is happy not to be an MP as he can now become a successful TV pundit - always eloquent.

The SNP - sweeping through Scotland - though the majority of Scots do not want independence, the SNP will take them down a rocky road and we will see an influx of middle class Scots moving to England in the coming years.

The Labour party - who ran a very poor campaign - picked the wrong leader and Ed Balls as a shadow chancellor - the mind boggles - never answered a straight question -

[BigAdz]

I do agree that Farage's pantomime elements are what made me dislike him at first and not be able to take him seriously. He reminded me of my old boss and he was a complete clown. Not someone I would trust to run a country.

The time I actually started to come round to him was when I heard him in a Q&A thing on TV, where he was in a more serious mood and I actually listened to what he was saying rather than just watching his antics. Had I have not seen that side to Farage, I would still very much dislike him.


Would be happy with Boris or Theresa May for deputy PM and eventually leader of the Conservative party. I like Boris for deputy now but would probably prefer Theresa May as leader in 5 years time.

Strange statements side by side, as Boris clearly happy with his clowning personna, which goes against what you said about Nige.

Nige will never get any form of power. I think before it gets to that, some of their issues will get watered down and adopted by the Tories(just my humble opinion).

Boris I also like.

I have briefly met Nige and Cameron. I know who i would rather share a beer with. Doesn't make either a great leader, but helps to endear themselves nonetheless if you feel they aren't just shaking your hand because they feel they have to.

[muckthenuts]

I know someone who punted huge on a hung parliament believing it to be a sure thing, poor guy!

[Graham C]

I'm going to miss Farage a bit, I liked his pantomime persona, very entertaining (not enough to vote for him of course).  Nick too, had an interesting talk on LBC most weeks.  Didn't listen to much as I only have a short drive to work but he comes across as very genuine.

[TightEnd]

evan davis

"In 1992 the polls got it very wrong: the last ones before the election were showing a Labour lead of one point; in the event, the Conservatives were seven and a half points ahead.

In 2015, the error is not quite that large but the crisis for professional pollsters is of a similar magnitude to 1992 in that a systematic error has been made, and whatever it is, all pollsters seem to have made it.

Back in 1992, the polling industry and experts all analysed the problem. Here's one study .

It concluded: "It seems the polls' downfall was caused partly by people not voting in the way they said they would ("switching" and "turnout"), and partly by the way pollsters treat the "don't know"s and "won't say"s, but perhaps mainly by selection or nonresponse biases".

My guess is that when the inquiries are finished this time, the conclusion will be the same - that there was no significant late swing (a proposition supported by YouGov, who obtained the same result on polling day as they had registered the day before).

The problem is, as it was in 1992, that the polling samples are somehow not representative.

If that is right, it suggests that the polls were not only wrong at the end of this campaign, they were probably wrong at the start of it. There is no reason to think they started off fine and suddently went off the rails.

To quote again from the 1992 study above: "With the benefit of hindsight, it appears that the Conservatives were actually ahead throughout the campaign, and would have won whenever the election had been held in that period."

I suspect we'll come to the same view this time.

If we do, that implies, there is no reason to think it was the Conservative campaign that won it for the party, and no reason to think it was the SNP/nationalism card they played.

They were ahead all along but we didn't simply didn't realise it.
"

[TightEnd]

more newsnight analysis

" 1) The Lib Dem collapse

The Lib Dems claimed that incumbency and local popularity would save 20 or 30 MPs from the electoral onslaught. In a sense, they weren't wrong.

In seats where there was an incumbent, the party lost an average of 14.7% of vote share. Where the incumbent was standing down, they lost an average of 22.5% of vote share. Incumbency worked - it just wasn't enough.

The picture was more or less equally grim against Conservatives and Labour. Where they were second against the Conservatives they were down 18% - against Labour 20%. The onslaught in their heartlands in the South West was particularly brutal - minus 20% share.

And it was this that really did for the Lib Dems. The seats facing Labour and in Scotland were always known to be weak. But evidence from council elections suggested they might have had better luck against the Conservatives. They didn't. And now Nick Clegg (perhaps not for much longer) leads a party that could travel in two cabs.

2) Labour's failure against the Conservatives

Labour were down 25% in Glasgow - and 18% in Scotland. They needed to make big gains against the Tories in England. And they didn't.

They did well in London - up 7%. And they picked up a handful of seats there - but not enough. Look at Battersea - they should have at least made ground there, and they didn't.

They did OK in the heartlands - up 3.5% against the Tories in the North East, and 6% in the North West. The figure for England and Wales overall was actually up 2% points against the Conservatives. But here's the rub. In Conservative held seats - seats they needed to take - Labour were actually down 0.7% against their opponents.

What do all these numbers mean? It means Labour piled on some votes, but in all the wrong places. In an election where they needed to reach out beyond the base, this looks a lot like a (perhaps unintentional) core vote strategy. The Tories were simply that much more effective in the marginals."

[BigAdz]

As probably the only person in the UK to predict a tory majority - wish i gambled would have made a small fortune

Well done Cameron for rolling up his sleeves at least he is guaranteed two years as leader until Borisf steps in.

Good luck to Nick Clegg - who genuinely stepped in to a coalition believing that it would stabilise the country and to a large extent it did.

Well done Nigel Farage - who was constantly bashed as a racist - but stuck to his guns on immigration and Europe - i think he is happy not to be an MP as he can now become a successful TV pundit - always eloquent.

The SNP - sweeping through Scotland - though the majority of Scots do not want independence, the SNP will take them down a rocky road and we will see an influx of middle class Scots moving to England in the coming years.

The Labour party - who ran a very poor campaign - picked the wrong leader and Ed Balls as a shadow chancellor - the mind boggles - never answered a straight question -

There were a few here that also thought Tories would win easily, but I think with all the tweets, reports and posted extracts, it felt difficult to push the point too much when the weight of popular opinion/coverage seemed to suggest otherwise.

As ever in gambling, it pays to go against the crowd!

I found the drive this morning v amusing as some high profile (socialist) members of the media obviously very upset at how  badly it had all gone. Peter Allen, who I normally like, showed his true political colours and was very snappy on the radio at anyone saying how well the Tories had done etc.

It seems the media actually believed its own propoganda!!!

[TightEnd]

David Cameron becomes the first public school educated CON leader to win an overall majority since Macmillan in 1959

[TightEnd]

the squeezed middle (a guardian chart)

a more rightwing and polarised electoral outcome than in 2010

[MelissaChloe]

I do agree that Farage's pantomime elements are what made me dislike him at first and not be able to take him seriously. He reminded me of my old boss and he was a complete clown. Not someone I would trust to run a country.

The time I actually started to come round to him was when I heard him in a Q&A thing on TV, where he was in a more serious mood and I actually listened to what he was saying rather than just watching his antics. Had I have not seen that side to Farage, I would still very much dislike him.


Would be happy with Boris or Theresa May for deputy PM and eventually leader of the Conservative party. I like Boris for deputy now but would probably prefer Theresa May as leader in 5 years time.

Strange statements side by side, as Boris clearly happy with his clowning personna, which goes against what you said about Nige.

Nige will never get any form of power. I think before it gets to that, some of their issues will get watered down and adopted by the Tories(just my humble opinion).

Boris I also like.

I have briefly met Nige and Cameron. I know who i would rather share a beer with. Doesn't make either a great leader, but helps to endear themselves nonetheless if you feel they aren't just shaking your hand because they feel they have to.

I do like Boris, whilst he has a personality and is a very likeable character, he still strikes me as someone that is capable of leading a country (although would still be my second choice for conservatives). I think he is very different to Farage and his less serious side is far more watered-down than Farage's is.

However, I think you may be misinterpreting my view on Farage. My initial opinion of him was one of dislike. I only saw and knew him for his more 'clown' side rather than his serious side until very recently. Once I saw his serious side, I started to warm to him and side with him a little more.

Being a Tory supporter, Boris has been on my immediate horizon a lot longer than Farage has - I have only taken interest in him in the run-up to the election - rather than with Boris who I have simply had more exposure to over the last 4/5 years. So as for them both clowning around sometimes, I agree. However I simply think that I have had more time to get used to Boris and have seen more interviews showing his more serious side too, whilst I have only seen very limited of Farage. My initial reaction towards Farage (and UKIP MP's in general) was not positive, however my opinion has changed slightly in the last few weeks.

[TightEnd]

Click to see full-size image.

[taximan007]

The biggest surprise for me is the possible complete demise of the Liberal Democrats In Cornwall, just Andrew George representing St Ives result to come and predictions say he could be losing his seat.

I moved to Cornwall in 1979 and since then regardless of the national vote Cornwall has always had a Lib Dem representation particularly strong in the 90's and 2000"s and a lot of this was due to the popularity of Daviid Penhaligon Truro MP who was predicted to go on to great things within the party until he was tragically killed in a car crash sometime in the mid 80's if I remember rightly.

Whilst I have always voted Conservative I had utmost respect for the Lib Dems in Cornwall and the work they did on local issues, Andrew George has served St Ives since 1997 and if he is to lose his seat later today it will be the end of an era in the Duchy.

[EvilPie]

What a fantastic result!!

I don't profess to be a supporter of either party in particular but the fact that there has been a 'real' result rather than some crappy coalition to try to get the number high enough is perfect. Had labour achieved similar numbers to the conservatives I would genuinely have been equally pleased with the result purely because it was a 'real' result. My biggest fear was a coalition and that isn't going to happen so I'm happy.

The fact that UKIP got so many votes but so few seats is also fantastic. It shows that their policies have genuine clout and must be integrated in to labour/conservative policy where possible in the future if they want to secure greater numbers. I know they didn't get the seats they wanted but what a brilliant statement they've made. Obviously the underlying 'send the buggers back where they came from' will always mean they don't get any power but to get so many votes shows that at least some of what they say needs to be listened to.

[Longy]

Labour will be pulled THREE ways: should it be anti-immigration to counter UKIP; centrist to win middle England; or leftist to win Scotland?

anti-immigration? it lost ground to UKIP in a lot of seats, particularly its seats in the noprth of england

centrist? middle england marginals might accept blair's soft-red policies, but doesn't like leftish policies

scotland? scotland wants socialism, not blairism


which way should labour go?

The way (only?) for Labour to win elections is to go for the center ground like Blair did very succesfully. Middle England will vote for a Labour party they are not scared of, yesterday when they got in the ballot box they will clearly fearful of a Labour government. The results in England show this, that where Labour did well was places that they have a lot of core Labour supporters, not the floating voters of middle england who swung tory.

Sad times for a lot of labour supporters as idelogically the party is close to unelectable, if the Tories are anywhere near comptent.