UK General Election 2015

[aaron1867]

That is two months out of date tbf. Even so a hung parliament has never been anywhere near that likely at any stage according to the betting markets which are a lot better overall guide due to the money changing hands than a poll IMO.

Oh those bookmakers, they know everything about the hundreds of constituencies don't they

Pull the other one lol

[Jon MW]

Also the ever so slightly more right of centre party winning the most seats without an outright majority would hardly be a ringing endorsement for left wing politics - which is what that 6% relates to

[redsimon]

That is two months out of date tbf. Even so a hung parliament has never been anywhere near that likely at any stage according to the betting markets which are a lot better overall guide due to the money changing hands than a poll IMO.

Not necessarily disagreeing but that's where I guess the poster got his 6% from?

[redsimon]

http://www.oddschecker.com/politics/british-politics/next-uk-general-election/overall-majority

 Should we be having max bet on no overall majority at 2/9?

[TightEnd]

Also the ever so slightly more right of centre party winning the most seats without an outright majority would hardly be a ringing endorsement for left wing politics - which is what that 6% relates to

and you have to include UKIP in any right wing calculation. I know some of their supporters come from old labour but the vast majority are disaffected conservatives

with conservatives polling 30-35, UKIP polling 10-15 the combination (representing very loosely right of centre to right) is as close to a majority of total votes than any combination of left leaning parties

the story here (from 2010 onwards) isn't that the right can't poll into a majority but that no major party can and that two party politics has fragmented, making the first past the post voting system particularly unsuitable for electing a majority government

[arbboy]

The poster's 6% stat actually referred to the chances of a right of centre party winning by majority.  So i assume he was talking about the tories here (ukip obviously but they are a million to get in anyway in reality) alone and not any majority government. 

[DungBeetle]

Alex Salmond predicts a "vote by vote arrangement" between a minority Labour government and the SNP  is the most likely outcome of the election.

Scotland's former first minister said his successor as SNP leader, Nicola Sturgeon, would lead the negotiations.

Mr Salmond also said he wanted the SNP to form a "progressive coalition" with Plaid Cymru and the Greens.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-32007514

I just felt a cold shiver run down my spine...

Based on what I´ve read over the years, that´s about the best endorsement a political idea can have.

Yet approaching about 40% of the population probably agree with me....

Forget all the think tanks and focus groups, a wonderful political ideology could be º.

No think tanks involved, just the people that would never vote for a left wing govt....

Education and the access to information through the internet killed right wing politics forever. 1993 was the very last time (ever, barring a 6% chance this May) the right won an election in the UK. I feel privileged to live in a country that has rejected conservatism.

Do you look at policies/performance or just what colour the rosette is?   Do you consider Labour 1997 to 2010 to be right wing or left wing?

[TightEnd]

the last four polls have deadheats lab and con on 33-35% and

[TightEnd]

"How would you describe each leader in one word?" Cameron, Miliband, Farage & Clegg rated.

Click to see full-size image.

Click to see full-size image.

Click to see full-size image.

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-3009653/Arrogant-weak-liar-racist-Voters-Verdicts-party-leaders-revealed-blunt-rude-words.html

[redsimon]

"How would you describe each leader in one word?" Cameron, Miliband, Farage & Clegg rated.

Click to see full-size image.

Click to see full-size image.

Click to see full-size image.

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-3009653/Arrogant-weak-liar-racist-Voters-Verdicts-party-leaders-revealed-blunt-rude-words.html

All Politicians distrusted? What next Bears defecate in the woods?

[RickBFA]

I wonder how many people who tell the polling companies they are UKIP supporters will be tempted to vote Tory when it comes to actually putting an X on the ballot paper.

If they are to the right of centre and are in a marginal constituency where the Tories may win, I have a feeling they will be torn.

They will also be aware that its very tight and given a choice between voting UKIP and getting Milliband or voting Tory, a significant number will think twice.

It would be interesting to see what a 3-4% increase in the Tory vote from UKIP would do to projected seat numbers.

[RED-DOG]

"How would you describe each leader in one word?" Cameron, Miliband, Farage & Clegg rated.

Click to see full-size image.

Click to see full-size image.

Click to see full-size image.

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-3009653/Arrogant-weak-liar-racist-Voters-Verdicts-party-leaders-revealed-blunt-rude-words.html

All Politicians distrusted? What next Bears defecate in the woods?

No shit!

[TightEnd]

neck and neck heading into thursday's 7 way leaders debate



http://may2015.com/category/poll-of-polls/

[TightEnd]

Click to see full-size image.

[TightEnd]

detail from the latest Ashcroft focus group: what type of house are the parties?