UK General Election 2015

[TightEnd]

another interesting read

gives you a lot of the detail on current forecasts

http://electionsetc.com/2015/04/21/forecast-update-21-april-2015/

[TightEnd]

YouGov ‏@YouGov

Latest Scotland poll: SNP lead at 24 – SNP 49 (-), Lab 25 (-), Con 17 (-1), Lib Dem 5 (+1) http://y-g.co/1bfvFXV 



unprecedented stuff

[Jon MW]

I love the way zero hours contracts are always lumped in the "almost don't count" category, like they are a bad thing. Speak to anyone in the NHS and they love them.

I don't know where you get this stuff from

Of the three nurses that I know, not one of them would categorise learning their shifts a few weeks in advance as an element of their job that they 'love'.
...

In practice, the number of people contracted for the employer to experience their flexibility is much smaller than the number of needed for the employees to realise their side of the flexibility agreement, and it is often the case that employers are satisfied with the number of people on the books once their own needs have been met and if if leaves the business a little under-staffed then well, everyone can just work a bit harder.

It's not exactly a reliable survey you're basing your opinion on. It reminds me (a lot) of how many BBC news reports involve just asking a random selection of people on the street and marketing that as a snapshot of public opinion.

It could reflect that zero hour contracts really aren't good for the NHS, but doesn't really reflect any wider 'truths' about the subject however flexibly you interpret it.

Also the question was about the increase in employment and whether zero hour contracts should 'count'. In which case whether people like them isn't what is relevant - catering (for example) is an industry where the equivalent of zero hour contracts have always been used, so even if everyone in catering hates them then an increase in jobs there is going to be comparing like for like; dismissing them as irrelevant only seems pertinent to those areas where they are used now and weren't used before. I suspect this is a pretty inconsequential minority of the cases.

[DMorgan]

I employ about 100 associates on zero hours contracts, mostly uni students. When exams roll around they tell me they want less hours or no hours at all, when it gets to holidays they want as many hours as possible. Seems to be ideal situation for them.

This is why I also included a positive example in my post. I'm not saying that zero hours contracts are a horrible concept. A responsible employer with a large enough pool of employees to offer the flexibility to both parties it seems to be a very effective employment model. The problems arise when firms are only offering zero hours contracts to people that want a full time job.

Its a balancing act between employees who want the stability of knowing that they'll be offered enough work to pay the bills and employers who want the flexibility to not spend too much on staff that they don't need. When you're a student working to supplement your loan and you want time off for exams that works well. When your job is your sole form of income and what used to be a guaranteed 40 hours a week is now 20-40 hours a week that shifts the flexibility/stability equation in favour of the employer, sometimes to the point of people bringing in a sum below the living wage. They could go and get a second job, but then some have exclusivity clauses to nip that in the bud.

Its hard to steer the conversation about employee rights away from the ideas of Labour being beholden to trade unions and the Tories being the party for business but I think that Millibands proposal to force businesses to offer a permanent contract after 12 weeks of work seems like a sensible one? The students in your example that like the zero hours format would decline the permanent contract and those that would prefer fixed hours would take on the contract. To me it makes sense that the 'default' working relationship is some form of permanent contract and the zero hours model is set aside for those who specifically want it.

Whether it could actually be enforced is another matter entirely of course

[TightEnd]

john major



(this is accurate by the way, albeit there are often bigger factors at play such as the 2009 financial crash)

[Doobs]

john major



(this is accurate by the way, albeit there are often bigger factors at play such as the 2009 financial crash)

Tony Blair's Government wrecked the economy?  I don't think so.

It really depends whose eyes you look at these things.  Thatcher could be seen as performing an economic miracle or causing mass unemployment and 2 recessions.  The 1970s inflationary spike could be blamed on labour, or the oil crisis, or just a continuation of the high inflation that was in place when they took over. 

[TightEnd]

john major



(this is accurate by the way, albeit there are often bigger factors at play such as the 2009 financial crash)

Tony Blair's Government wrecked the economy?  I don't think so.

It really depends whose eyes you look at these things.  Thatcher could be seen as performing an economic miracle or causing mass unemployment and 2 recessions.  The 1970s inflationary spike could be blamed on labour, or the oil crisis, or just a continuation of the high inflation that was in place when they took over. 

Blair was a centre government, moved away from the left. The man who succeeded him turned the taps on in 2001-05 and pushed the deficit higher in the good times...

[Doobs]

john major



(this is accurate by the way, albeit there are often bigger factors at play such as the 2009 financial crash)

Tony Blair's Government wrecked the economy?  I don't think so.

It really depends whose eyes you look at these things.  Thatcher could be seen as performing an economic miracle or causing mass unemployment and 2 recessions.  The 1970s inflationary spike could be blamed on labour, or the oil crisis, or just a continuation of the high inflation that was in place when they took over. 

Blair was a centre government, moved away from the left. The man who succeeded him turned the taps on in 2001-05 and pushed the deficit higher in the good times...

The early 2000s weren't obviously good times at the time, there were real worries of a recession spreading from Europe.  You can look back now and say maybe we could have cut spending a bit then, but that is using quite a bit of hindsight, and it is a big stretch to say the economy was wrecked by Blair and Brown then.  And however you describe Blair's Government, it was certainly a Labour one. 

[MANTIS01]

Many employers offering zero hours contracts are seasonal so can't guarantee set hours all year round.

Any zero hours employee who makes themselves indispensable through excellent performance can pretty much dictate terms to their employer imo

There sure are some downsides tho, we closed for some interior design work and I didn't pay any zero hours for a month. That kind of thing is well slack.

[doubleup]

john major



(this is accurate by the way, albeit there are often bigger factors at play such as the 2009 financial crash)

lol has he forgotten his buddy Norman Lamont trying to bankrupt everyone in the country with absurd interest rates to save the pound?

 

[The Baron]

john major



(this is accurate by the way, albeit there are often bigger factors at play such as the 2009 financial crash)

Can't really agree with this statement for so many reasons, but it's the perpetual story I've heard from the Tories at this election. It's pretty thin when you look at the history books.

[Woodsey]

john major



(this is accurate by the way, albeit there are often bigger factors at play such as the 2009 financial crash)

Does any Labour voter agree with this or any conservative voter disagree with it? 

[mulhuzz]

john major



(this is accurate by the way, albeit there are often bigger factors at play such as the 2009 financial crash)

Does any Labour voter agree with this or any conservative voter disagree with it? 

any Tory with a brain would disagree. it's simply not true.

[BigAdz]

To DMorgan.

I get 'this stuff' from a wife who runs large team of nurses and does the shifts for an even larger group at JR in Oxford as a ward sister.

Most love the zero hours but they also can pull out of shifts they don't like very easily, the knock on being a costly late replacement. With then becomes a fine balancing act pleasing all this people who, far from being the shit upon ones, have in a strange way, almost taken over.

I know a lot of these people, and it is quite a few more than your three.........

[TightEnd]

this is from the pollster anthony wells of ukpollingreport



are the conservatives right to focus on labour/snp? might it work?

is it an issue for you at all?