UK General Election 2015

[MintTrav]

So, on those figures no way Conservatives can form a Coalition with enough seats? Labour or Lab/Lib with SNP support a shoe in?

yes the electoral maths is clear

this explains why miliband has gone from odds against to 8/15 next prime minister

 The Tories have to get the "lab+snp= carnage" message through.... then a Tories + Lib coalition again with support from DUP and even UKIP...might just make it!

No chance. The election is over. The people who frequent the Tips thread should be putting lots on a certainty.

[Doobs]

So, on those figures no way Conservatives can form a Coalition with enough seats? Labour or Lab/Lib with SNP support a shoe in?

yes the electoral maths is clear

this explains why miliband has gone from odds against to 8/15 next prime minister

 The Tories have to get the "lab+snp= carnage" message through.... then a Tories + Lib coalition again with support from DUP and even UKIP...might just make it!

No chance. The election is over. The people who frequent the Tips thread should be putting lots on a certainty.

Surely the conservatives can get more seats as they are always understated in the polls and cons/Lib dems/unionist is v close to 325 anyway? 

Hate the word certainty and people saying things are very clear when they aren't.  Some evens milliband next PM would be nice though, or not nice depending which way you look at it!

[MintTrav]

So, on those figures no way Conservatives can form a Coalition with enough seats? Labour or Lab/Lib with SNP support a shoe in?

yes the electoral maths is clear

this explains why miliband has gone from odds against to 8/15 next prime minister

 The Tories have to get the "lab+snp= carnage" message through.... then a Tories + Lib coalition again with support from DUP and even UKIP...might just make it!

No chance. The election is over. The people who frequent the Tips thread should be putting lots on a certainty.

Surely the conservatives can get more seats as they are always understated in the polls and cons/Lib dems/unionist is v close to 325 anyway? 

Hate the word certainty and people saying things are very clear when they aren't.  Some evens milliband next PM would be nice though, or not nice depending which way you look at it!

All the parties have to pretend it's on a knife-edge to make sure their voters turn out, so they maximise their vote. It suits the media to play along, as an exciting contest means more viewers / readers. They all know that Miliband is gonna get the keys unless he takes a swing at someone or there is some other scandal or dramatic event that we don't yet know about.

The things that are not certain are the structure of the Miliband government and which of Conservatives, Lib Dems, UKIP or Greens will be first to change their leader.

[arbboy]

So, on those figures no way Conservatives can form a Coalition with enough seats? Labour or Lab/Lib with SNP support a shoe in?

yes the electoral maths is clear

this explains why miliband has gone from odds against to 8/15 next prime minister

 The Tories have to get the "lab+snp= carnage" message through.... then a Tories + Lib coalition again with support from DUP and even UKIP...might just make it!

No chance. The election is over. The people who frequent the Tips thread should be putting lots on a certainty.

Surely the conservatives can get more seats as they are always understated in the polls and cons/Lib dems/unionist is v close to 325 anyway?  

Hate the word certainty and people saying things are very clear when they aren't.  Some evens milliband next PM would be nice though, or not nice depending which way you look at it!

All the parties have to pretend it's on a knife-edge to make sure their voters turn out, so they maximise their vote. It suits the media to play along, as an exciting contest means more viewers / readers. They all know that Miliband is gonna get the keys unless he takes a swing at someone or there is some other scandal or dramatic event that we don't yet know about.

The things that are not certain are the structure of the Miliband government and which of Conservatives, Lib Dems, UKIP or Greens will be first to change their leader.

How much have you had on at 4/6 on something that 'can't lose'?   You make it sound so easy.  I am not saying you are right or wrong but it is a once in a lifetime spot for you to back your judgement to win life changing money on something that is already over the winning line.  If you haven't had at least 20% of your net worth then i would imagine it is not quite as weighed in as you bullishly state.

http://www.oddschecker.com/politics/british-politics/next-uk-general-election/prime-minister-after-general-election

[Doobs]

So, on those figures no way Conservatives can form a Coalition with enough seats? Labour or Lab/Lib with SNP support a shoe in?

yes the electoral maths is clear

this explains why miliband has gone from odds against to 8/15 next prime minister

 The Tories have to get the "lab+snp= carnage" message through.... then a Tories + Lib coalition again with support from DUP and even UKIP...might just make it!

No chance. The election is over. The people who frequent the Tips thread should be putting lots on a certainty.

Surely the conservatives can get more seats as they are always understated in the polls and cons/Lib dems/unionist is v close to 325 anyway? 

Hate the word certainty and people saying things are very clear when they aren't.  Some evens milliband next PM would be nice though, or not nice depending which way you look at it!

All the parties have to pretend it's on a knife-edge to make sure their voters turn out, so they maximise their vote. It suits the media to play along, as an exciting contest means more viewers / readers. They all know that Miliband is gonna get the keys unless he takes a swing at someone or there is some other scandal or dramatic event that we don't yet know about.

The things that are not certain are the structure of the Miliband government and which of Conservatives, Lib Dems, UKIP or Greens will be first to change their leader.

Almost every poll leading up to polling day predicted either a hung parliament, with Labour the largest party or a small Labour majority of around 19 to 23. Polls on the last few days before the country voted predicted a very slim Labour majority.

With opinion polls at the end of the campaign showing Labour and the Conservatives neck and neck, the actual election result was a surprise to many in the media and in polling organisations. The apparent failure of the opinion polls to come close to predicting the actual result led to an inquiry by the Market Research Society. Following the election, most opinion polling companies changed their methodology in the belief that a 'Shy Tory Factor' affected the polling.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_Kingdom_general_election,_1992

[MintTrav]

So, on those figures no way Conservatives can form a Coalition with enough seats? Labour or Lab/Lib with SNP support a shoe in?

yes the electoral maths is clear

this explains why miliband has gone from odds against to 8/15 next prime minister

 The Tories have to get the "lab+snp= carnage" message through.... then a Tories + Lib coalition again with support from DUP and even UKIP...might just make it!

No chance. The election is over. The people who frequent the Tips thread should be putting lots on a certainty.

Surely the conservatives can get more seats as they are always understated in the polls and cons/Lib dems/unionist is v close to 325 anyway?  

Hate the word certainty and people saying things are very clear when they aren't.  Some evens milliband next PM would be nice though, or not nice depending which way you look at it!

All the parties have to pretend it's on a knife-edge to make sure their voters turn out, so they maximise their vote. It suits the media to play along, as an exciting contest means more viewers / readers. They all know that Miliband is gonna get the keys unless he takes a swing at someone or there is some other scandal or dramatic event that we don't yet know about.

The things that are not certain are the structure of the Miliband government and which of Conservatives, Lib Dems, UKIP or Greens will be first to change their leader.

How much have you had on at 4/6 on something that 'can't lose'?   You make it sound so easy.  I am not saying you are right or wrong but it is a once in a lifetime spot for you to back your judgement to win life changing money on something that is already over the winning line.  If you haven't had at least 20% of your net worth then i would imagine it is not quite as weighed in as you bullishly state.

http://www.oddschecker.com/politics/british-politics/next-uk-general-election/prime-minister-after-general-election

Perhaps you are right - though I haven't ever bet on anything before except the Grand National (and poker hands, I guess). I clicked the pink highlighted 4/6 on your link and it took me to this page: https://www.betfair.com/exchange/politics/market?rfr=63&id=1.116758783. Haven't the foggiest what those numbers mean though. I could go in the bookies and do it, but I understand that the rates are better online, so I'll have to study it.

[MintTrav]

So, on those figures no way Conservatives can form a Coalition with enough seats? Labour or Lab/Lib with SNP support a shoe in?

yes the electoral maths is clear

this explains why miliband has gone from odds against to 8/15 next prime minister

 The Tories have to get the "lab+snp= carnage" message through.... then a Tories + Lib coalition again with support from DUP and even UKIP...might just make it!

No chance. The election is over. The people who frequent the Tips thread should be putting lots on a certainty.

Surely the conservatives can get more seats as they are always understated in the polls and cons/Lib dems/unionist is v close to 325 anyway? 

Hate the word certainty and people saying things are very clear when they aren't.  Some evens milliband next PM would be nice though, or not nice depending which way you look at it!

All the parties have to pretend it's on a knife-edge to make sure their voters turn out, so they maximise their vote. It suits the media to play along, as an exciting contest means more viewers / readers. They all know that Miliband is gonna get the keys unless he takes a swing at someone or there is some other scandal or dramatic event that we don't yet know about.

The things that are not certain are the structure of the Miliband government and which of Conservatives, Lib Dems, UKIP or Greens will be first to change their leader.

Almost every poll leading up to polling day predicted either a hung parliament, with Labour the largest party or a small Labour majority of around 19 to 23. Polls on the last few days before the country voted predicted a very slim Labour majority.

With opinion polls at the end of the campaign showing Labour and the Conservatives neck and neck, the actual election result was a surprise to many in the media and in polling organisations. The apparent failure of the opinion polls to come close to predicting the actual result led to an inquiry by the Market Research Society. Following the election, most opinion polling companies changed their methodology in the belief that a 'Shy Tory Factor' affected the polling.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_Kingdom_general_election,_1992

Kinnock going mental a week before the election didn't help. Hard to imagine Miliband doing a Kinnock, but it would take an unforeseen dramatic event like that to change the outcome.

[Ironside]

Not sure if I am being led up the garden path,but was told Sturgeon not even standing for her own seat?

If true surely she has f all say in parliament, if the horror of horror becomes reality?

That is why Alex Salmond is standing as an MP 

salmondella wont have a say in englandshire as angus robertson is a popular leader of the snp in westminster and salmondella is last years news

Of course he will, he will be the SNP mouthpiece again as soon as he wins a seat in Westminster.

So, I have clearly missed a beat here.

Why would anyone vote for a woman who isn't even standing herself?

Why is she not standing? I don't get it.

she is the leader of the SNP and as such the first minister of scotland

the made it a rule amongst there MPs and MSPs that they could not sit in both parliaments
as such nicola sturgeon is the leader of the SNP but angus robertson is the leader of the SNP in westminster
just like the tories libs and labour and snp have leaders f there party in brussels

[redsimon]

I had a chuckle at those oddschecker prices. 100/1 on David Milliband, These firms don't accept chunky bets on much but will offer odds (and skinny ones at 100/1) on someone who cannot possibly ever be the next PM as he isn't even a candidate to be an MP?

[doubleup]

Think he could be made a Lord and get to be PM that way.

[BigAdz]

I am constantly amused at how 'rich people' get a bad rap in elections. Like they are guilty of some crime and are to blame for all the ills of the country.

Our real issue should be with the lazy sponges who get away with milking the system and doing absolutely nothing.

If I was in charge, at the very minimum, the streets would have no litter on them more than 24 hours old, because those on unemployment benefits, and able to do so, would be doing something, even if it's just p picking up litter.

Right, I'm off to the beach.

[TightEnd]

Click to see full-size image.

[TightEnd]

Why aren't Plaid Cymru surging? the writer went to Wales to find out

http://www.newstatesman.com/politics/2015/04/why-arent-plaid-cymru-surging

[TightEnd]

How disillusionment with Labour in Scotland has turned to raw rage

http://gu.com/p/47zv2/stw

[TightEnd]

http://www.scotsman.com/news/uk/snp-faces-irrelevance-as-lib-lab-deal-looms-1-3743115

"“If either Labour or Tories can get to the 300 mark, the Nats’ acquiescence is no longer required. The crucial question is can either of them get to the 300 mark?

“This poll-of-polls suggests Labour can,” said Curtice, professor of politics at Strathclyde University. "