UK General Election 2015

[DungBeetle]

So, on those figures no way Conservatives can form a Coalition with enough seats? Labour or Lab/Lib with SNP support a shoe in?

yes the electoral maths is clear

this explains why miliband has gone from odds against to 8/15 next prime minister

 The Tories have to get the "lab+snp= carnage" message through.... then a Tories + Lib coalition again with support from DUP and even UKIP...might just make it!

No chance. The election is over. The people who frequent the Tips thread should be putting lots on a certainty.

Obvious nonsense to suggest election is over.  Miliband worthy favourite but it's going to be close.

[DungBeetle]

When Miliband does get in his position is going to be so weak isn't it?  Likely 20 seats behind Tories and held to ransom by SNP at every turn.  The press will have a field day and he's going to be accused of having lack of legitimacy every time a policy is announced. 

[TightEnd]

"Uncertainty remains, but with less than two weeks to the election, Britain’s top pollsters believe Ed Miliband now has more options to become PM"

http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2015/apr/24/who-will-win-the-general-election-the-pollsters-predict

[TightEnd]

from the times today



so if con can get to 290 they are in the hunt, assuming LD 25, DUP 8 are fairly static figures, for 323

the problem is that yougou and populus today both say england 5.6% con to lab, which is 65 seat losses from 306 last time

labour maybe losing 30-40 seats to SNP in scotland means they can't win a majority, may mean they won't have most seats (though it is closer than 1/2 conservative implies)

but the size of the snp bloc explains why EM has shortened so far next prime minster

i wonder if today's libya gaffe will have any impact?

[Teacake]

http://www.scotsman.com/news/uk/snp-faces-irrelevance-as-lib-lab-deal-looms-1-3743115

"“If either Labour or Tories can get to the 300 mark, the Nats’ acquiescence is no longer required. The crucial question is can either of them get to the 300 mark?

“This poll-of-polls suggests Labour can,” said Curtice, professor of politics at Strathclyde University. "

Curtices analysis is usually worth listening to but it's a bit of a stretch to put Labour on 300 seats.

[Ironside]

i am confused with the whole labour snp thing

up here in most seats its a straight fight with lab/snp

vote lab you get ed milliband
vote snp you get ed milliband
vote lib you get ed milliband
vote torie you get ed milliband
vote ukip you get shot
so much for democracy

[cambridgealex]

Should I be lumping on Ed to be next PM then?

[TightEnd]

Should I be lumping on Ed to be next PM then?

would say its a bit late for that now

price has come in a lot and its close

the election maths makes ed more likely, but its not a done deal

[TightEnd]

12 days to go - guardian GE2015 projection:

CON 274 seats
LAB 269
SNP 55
LD 27
Ukip 3

[TightEnd]

Click to see full-size image.

[TightEnd]

How Westminster politicians interact on Twitter.

http://ind.pn/1d9TxNZ 

[George2Loose]

Click to see full-size image.

Hope he loses his seat. Sold out for power and then has the gall to try and set the agenda when his party is going to halve in number.

[TightEnd]

well thats the reality of coalitions and multi-party government, they have to negotiate for what parts of their manifesto they can get into goverment

a party with 1,2,3 or 30 seats can be pretty important so its irrelevant that lib dems may halve to the calculations that lie ahead for all the leaders

his comments are important though

the numbers make a Lab/Lib government now near impossible.

but its a tactical move too

In nearly all seats Lib Dems set to retain, Tories second. he needs to shore up that vote and not lose it to conservative

here is an article on it Clegg: Lib Dems will not support govt reliant on SNP http://polho.me/1Jo0Xue 

Clegg's political future probably depends on current coalition continuing.

[George2Loose]

I just find the way he goes about things really arrogant. Vince Cable is at the opposite end of the spectrum. Great politician

[TightEnd]

A man called Brian Wilson demolishes the SNP

I expect i will get told that Mr Wilson is not credible, but i found the article interesting

the comments are good fun too

http://www.scotsman.com/news/brian-wilson-calling-the-snp-s-bluff-on-austerity-1-3754085