UK General Election 2015

[TightEnd]

what did people think about this, this morning

the edstone

8ft high with some generalities in it with the plan to plonk it in the garden on 10 downing street......



"Everyone involved in the UK election is tired. The cursed contest has been running for months and it feels like years, so it is perhaps understandable that the parties should make mistakes with only a few days left.

But these are the moments of tension in which a leader on the campaign trail is tested. When his or her over-worked and stressed staff come up with a stinker of an idea, the leader must have the judgement to say “no, we’re not going to do that because it will make me look very silly.”

That – or “have you gone stone-cold crazy?” – is what Labour’s Ed Miliband should have said when his advisors turned up with a plan to commission an eight foot high monumental slab with Labour’s election pledges carved on it."

was one interpretation, albeit a biased one, in the right wing press.....

[Woodsey]

Just looks like a load of generalist guff, you could stick that in front of a few of the party leaders...

[DMorgan]

Educate me please Mulhuzz; explain why austerity measures obviously aren't a good idea.

in particular, can you explain why the specific austerity measures taken by the current administration were so obviously a bad idea.

Maybe you could propose an alternative plan.

A long read but a worthwhile one imo

http://www.theguardian.com/business/ng-interactive/2015/apr/29/the-austerity-delusion

if you read that, please read this:

http://www.capx.co/paul-krugmans-austerity-delusion/

and this

http://www.capx.co/paul-krugman-is-wrong-about-the-uk-and-borrowing/

cliffnotes. krugman comes from a perspective that is flawed (but has been seized upon as a holy grail by anyone for whom his argument suits their perspective)

Thanks for the links, more interesting stuff. Some interesting quotes from this articles:

Setting aside for now whether such a fixation would be “misleading”, economic discourse in Britain simply isn’t dominated by a fixation with government budget deficits. [...] But the Budget deficit hasn’t really been an important issue since 2013, aside from brief passing flurries of interest at the Autumn Statement or Budget when the government announces its latest forecasts.

All that the Tories have wanted to talk about is the defecit from what I've seen and read. That and how evil the SNP are.

Almost no-one in Britain claims or believes that high spending by the last Labour government caused the economic crisis of 2008.

Maybe not amongst academics or even those in government but you don't have to look much further than this thread to find otherwise. Among Tory and UKIP voters especially this is still what they are being fed through the right leaning sections of the media

[TightEnd]

re the last point

the crisis was caused by the collapse in the banking system..lehman bros specifically

BUT

Over its last decade in power, Labour upped state spending from 34% of GDP to 50%. More than *any* other country over *any* other decade.

so when the crisis hit, the economy was not in a position to withstand it that it might have been if the government was running a cyclical surplus...(because boom and bust had gone. copyright gordon brown, so government spending could increase.....as it happened a lot of this government spend went to the rocks in increased bureaucracy, middle management, waste etc)

its a question of cause and effect

getting any idea of nuance into the debate where simple soundbites are all a lot of the electorate will take in (people don't even understand what austerity is, what the deficit is and means etc) is impossible..hence a lot of misconceptions (yes, promulgated by those with vested interests)

[DungBeetle]

I rarely see people on this thread blame labour for the banking crisis.  More it's people being critical of running a deficit during the credit boom.

[ripple11]

Just looks like a load of generalist guff, you could stick that in front of a few of the party leaders...

 and embarrassing

[mulhuzz]

I rarely see people on this thread blame labour for the banking crisis.  More it's people being critical of running a deficit during the credit boom.

Deficits are generally good things though, especially when it's cheap to borrow and you're doing so in your own currency.

[mulhuzz]

Educate me please Mulhuzz; explain why austerity measures obviously aren't a good idea.

in particular, can you explain why the specific austerity measures taken by the current administration were so obviously a bad idea.

Maybe you could propose an alternative plan.

Because the austerity measures didn't cause economic growth, but when they were eased a bit the economy grew most.

[mulhuzz]

Educate me please Mulhuzz; explain why austerity measures obviously aren't a good idea.

in particular, can you explain why the specific austerity measures taken by the current administration were so obviously a bad idea.

Maybe you could propose an alternative plan.

A long read but a worthwhile one imo

http://www.theguardian.com/business/ng-interactive/2015/apr/29/the-austerity-delusion

if you read that, please read this:

http://www.capx.co/paul-krugmans-austerity-delusion/

and this

http://www.capx.co/paul-krugman-is-wrong-about-the-uk-and-borrowing/

cliffnotes. krugman comes from a perspective that is flawed (but has been seized upon as a holy grail by anyone for whom his argument suits their perspective)

Great articles Tighty, I disagree with them but they are interesting.

[TightEnd]

Educate me please Mulhuzz; explain why austerity measures obviously aren't a good idea.

in particular, can you explain why the specific austerity measures taken by the current administration were so obviously a bad idea.

Maybe you could propose an alternative plan.

Because the austerity measures didn't cause economic growth, but when they were eased a bit the economy grew most.

not meant to were they?

designed to make sure the country didn't go down the path of Iceland/Greece/Spain and Portugal where unchecked spending led to far worse than anything the UK has had to go through.....

[TightEnd]

Educate me please Mulhuzz; explain why austerity measures obviously aren't a good idea.

in particular, can you explain why the specific austerity measures taken by the current administration were so obviously a bad idea.

Maybe you could propose an alternative plan.

A long read but a worthwhile one imo

http://www.theguardian.com/business/ng-interactive/2015/apr/29/the-austerity-delusion

if you read that, please read this:

http://www.capx.co/paul-krugmans-austerity-delusion/

and this

http://www.capx.co/paul-krugman-is-wrong-about-the-uk-and-borrowing/

cliffnotes. krugman comes from a perspective that is flawed (but has been seized upon as a holy grail by anyone for whom his argument suits their perspective)

Great articles Tighty, I disagree with them but they are interesting.

no problem

i enjoy the debate

far better standard of debate and respect for other opinions than in a lot of comments sections!

[redsimon]

Tighty, on the "Fred" you mentioned canvassing in 3 marginals? Was the impression you got in them that Cons were losing them and do the individual odds on them merit any betting opportunities?

[MintTrav]

Educate me please Mulhuzz; explain why austerity measures obviously aren't a good idea.

in particular, can you explain why the specific austerity measures taken by the current administration were so obviously a bad idea.

Maybe you could propose an alternative plan.

How far can austerity measures go David? Would you agree that there should be a limit somewhere? What point is that?

I don't think anyone would disagree that the people of Greece were pushed too far. You can't treat people like that and expect that they will just continue to accept it. Making their lives a bit more miserable isn't going to make much dent in the amounts they are being asked for. Okay, their government needs to agree some new structures, but battering the population has been counter-productive.

Ireland is being held up by some as the success story of the austerity countries. It's not true. There has been massive resistance and division in Ireland. Is that what you want here? Because it is what you will get if the Conservatives' programme is implemented. They are proposing a massive reduction in government spending from its current level. They intend to reduce unprotected spending by £30bn. If that happens, you can look forward to protests and unrest similar to that in Ireland.

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[TightEnd]

Tighty, on the "Fred" you mentioned canvassing in 3 marginals? Was the impression you got in them that Cons were losing them and do the individual odds on them merit any betting opportunities?

labour are odds on in all three, 2010 5ish% tory majorities

private polling (which is can be like eating comfort food, makes you feel good in the short term - it will usually be biased to your own party-  but on polling day you have to step on the scales) which is commissioned by one party has labour ahead in two by small margins and dead heat/small behind in the other but all within any reasonable margin of error

on this private polling, central election units decide where to put resources/canvassers/send senior politicans etc etc

today's you gov poll (independent and audited with public methodolgy unlike the private polling) had the following

ENGLAND & WALES ONLY

CON 35
LAB 36
LD 8
UKIP 13

A CON to LAB swing since GE 2010 of 5.1%

if that can be extrapolated (it can't, probably) then labour wins most seats

the big uncertainties are

- ukip vote. hold up or worried switch?

- lib dem incumbency/tactical voting....libs winning 20 or 30 seats might make a big difference to whether the con-lib coalition casn hit 323

- a tory surge to come? some in the conservative party swear by it, maybe as late as the last 48 hours. others are more sceptical.

fwiw, which is not a lot, i'm sceptical

[TightEnd]

David Cameron plans to continue as Prime Minister even if the Conservatives do not win a majority after the election, the Sunday Times has reported.

https://www.politicshome.com/party-politics/articles/story/david-cameron-%E2%80%98plans-stay-pm%E2%80%99-without-tory-majority

Three Conservatives told the paper Mr Cameron is also planning to declare victory if he gets the most seats and votes in the general election next Thursday.

According to the sources, Mr Cameron would “quickly” argue that Labour cannot claim “legitimacy” to form a government if it receives a smaller mandate and needs support from the SNP.

The Tory sources told the paper Mr Cameron would not resign unless it was clear Labour had enough votes to pass a Queen’s speech