UK General Election 2015

[scotty77]

Under/Over party's MPs for the 2020 election:

Liberal Democrats 14.5
SNP 40.5
Labour MPs in Scotland 15.5
UKIP 4.5


Which way (over/under) would you go if you had to bet on those totals?

Over
Over
Under
Under

[TightEnd]

Just read an interesting opinion piece that Labour's awful performance in Scotland was due to sharing a platform with the Tories in the run up to the vote.

think that is true, but just what is a pro-union party meant to do?

that said, the better together campaign was so horrifically negative (and completely thrashed by the yes campaign tapping into idealistic hopes from voters who ciouldn't give a toss about the details just wanted some positivity) and this made the result this year even worse

and labour politicians in scotland were, by and large, second rate compared to the westminster front bench and (we are told by many) ignored their voters for 10-15 years

[The Camel]

Under 4.5 UKIPs would be a nap come to think of it.

Wouldn't be on the spreads (obv) but would have to bet unders at fixed odds.

Assuming Tim Farron is the new leader of the LDs, I think they'll bounce back pretty well.

My missus is lifetime liberal leaning although has no day to day interest in politics.

She was transfixed when she heard him speak on election night

"Who is that guy? Spoke more sense than anyone else I've heard all night" she said.

[AndrewT]

The SNP are an established party with a long history and a base they built from. They had experience in government in the Scottish Parliament, and had obviously managed to impress people outside of their normal power base.

UKIP are a one man band built on protest votes. Their strategy for getting MPs was tapping up disaffected Tories worried about losing their seat. That's now not an issue as Labour look like entering a period of wilderness years. If Farage decides not to stand again they'll fade as completely as the BNP did in 5 years. Even if he stays on, what are they going to do after the referendum?

[TightEnd]

UKIP are a one man band built on protest votes. Their strategy for getting MPs was tapping up disaffected Tories worried about losing their seat. That's now not an issue as Labour look like entering a period of wilderness years. If Farage decides not to stand again they'll fade as completely as the BNP did in 5 years. Even if he stays on, what are they going to do after the referendum?

Suzanne evans attempts to take them mainstream Andrew. She wrote this manifesto, and a populist righter than the conservatives agenda might keep the majority of the 4m voters they had this time.

might not, of course, but there will almost certainly be immigration still to go at

we aren't going back to two party politics and there are always going to be protest vote parties out there. unless something springs up new, UKIP is going to be a home for them

[mulhuzz]

Just because someone votes UKIP does not make them a racist.

That said, if you are a racist, you probably voted for UKIP.

This.

I would guess there would be at least 250k people who voted labour and tory who people on here would consider racist.  To say racist people only vote UKIP is crazy.

What proportion of the UK do you think is racist?

If like some on here, assuming that wanting tighter immigration controls makes you racist then 76%

http://www.migrationwatchuk.org/briefing-paper/14.3

I know it's hard, but if you want to talk about this issue, please try and use sources which aren't clearly driving an agenda. their surveys aren't worth the paper they're written on. Do you think they might possibly be biased or otherwise influenced when the first link on their website is 'what's the problem with immigration?'

I'd actually prefer to talk about immigration without reference at all to race, as that's such an incendiary topic it makes sensible debate of the other topic impossible. However too many of the people i've seen here and elsewhere who back tighter immigration controls do so in a way which places race at the front of the argument.

[Kmac84]

Decent article on Glasgow Labour.  

http://www.heraldscotland.com/mobile/politics/scottish-politics/glasgow-labours-number-one-priority-after-westminster-wipe-out-survival.125484077

[mulhuzz]

UKIP are a one man band built on protest votes. Their strategy for getting MPs was tapping up disaffected Tories worried about losing their seat. That's now not an issue as Labour look like entering a period of wilderness years. If Farage decides not to stand again they'll fade as completely as the BNP did in 5 years. Even if he stays on, what are they going to do after the referendum?

Suzanne evans attempts to take them mainstream Andrew. She wrote this manifesto, and a populist righter than the conservatives agenda might keep the majority of the 4m voters they had this time.

might not, of course, but there will almost certainly be immigration still to go at

we aren't going back to two party politics and there are always going to be protest vote parties out there. unless something springs up new, UKIP is going to be a home for them

but basically they are currently a one issue party (leave EU, shut borders) - you think Suzanne Evans broadens their appeal right of centre?

[TightEnd]

UKIP are a one man band built on protest votes. Their strategy for getting MPs was tapping up disaffected Tories worried about losing their seat. That's now not an issue as Labour look like entering a period of wilderness years. If Farage decides not to stand again they'll fade as completely as the BNP did in 5 years. Even if he stays on, what are they going to do after the referendum?

Suzanne evans attempts to take them mainstream Andrew. She wrote this manifesto, and a populist righter than the conservatives agenda might keep the majority of the 4m voters they had this time.

might not, of course, but there will almost certainly be immigration still to go at

we aren't going back to two party politics and there are always going to be protest vote parties out there. unless something springs up new, UKIP is going to be a home for them

but basically they are currently a one issue party (leave EU, shut borders) - you think Suzanne Evans broadens their appeal right of centre?

She's good. A serious politician. more exposure she gets.....

more than a one issue party, their manifesto (i had to read it, unfortunately and report on it) had policies across the range of issues.

they could fall back, and a EU stay in vote would be a challenge but i wouldn't automatically assue they'll disappear into the ether. certainly not as soon as 2020 

[Kmac84]

Under/Over party's MPs for the 2020 election:

Liberal Democrats 14.5
SNP 40.5
Labour MPs in Scotland 15.5
UKIP 4.5


Which way (over/under) would you go if you had to bet on those totals?

Very tough.  Are they your lines or with a firm?

My lines.

I should have asked for a guess on all of them, rather than give my lines.

Over, Over, Under, Under. 

[Woodsey]

Just because someone votes UKIP does not make them a racist.

That said, if you are a racist, you probably voted for UKIP.

This.

I would guess there would be at least 250k people who voted labour and tory who people on here would consider racist.  To say racist people only vote UKIP is crazy.

What proportion of the UK do you think is racist?

If like some on here, assuming that wanting tighter immigration controls makes you racist then 76%

http://www.migrationwatchuk.org/briefing-paper/14.3

I know it's hard, but if you want to talk about this issue, please try and use sources which aren't clearly driving an agenda. their surveys aren't worth the paper they're written on. Do you think they might possibly be biased or otherwise influenced when the first link on their website is 'what's the problem with immigration?'

I'd actually prefer to talk about immigration without reference at all to race, as that's such an incendiary topic it makes sensible debate of the other topic impossible. However too many of the people i've seen here and elsewhere who back tighter immigration controls do so in a way which places race at the front of the argument.

I think they are recognised as one of the most sensible bodies researching the issue. But I'm happy for you to show me another reputable source asking the same question to get a %.

[AndrewT]

Migration Watch are a right-wing, anti-immigration pressure group who pretend (not very effectively) to be a respected, independent think tank.

[The Camel]

The demise of the BNP is quite stunning.

They got over 500,000 votes in 2010 but less than 2000 split between between 8 candidates this week.

Losing Griffin mattered that much?

[david3103]

Migration Watch are a right-wing, anti-immigration pressure group who pretend (utterly ineffectively) to be a respected, independent think tank.

fyp

[teddybloat]

snp, nationalist party campaining for democratic independce.

Ukip, nationalist party campaining for democratic independence

Snp, progressive party looking to build good public services

Ukip, right of thatcher economic policy strong distain for public services not being run for private profit

Snp, postive campaign focusing on the the strengths of their country and collective strengths

Ukip, negative campaign focusing on immigration, immigrants and foriegn erosion of county

Snp, negative press, leader attacked on front pages and painted as a great threat

Ukip, positive press, leader promoted on front pages as saviour of politics / country

Snp swept aside old guard,, huge influence in pariliment

Ukip, swept aside and rejected

---------

Scotland are bad-ass radicals.

Ukip should have focused on democratic independence. Instead they tried to insist immigrants where an overwhelming threat to the nation. Not only did voters not agree, it attracted people who felt comfortable saying they would shoot an asian prime minisister.

Lets say everyone agreed immigration was a huge problem. It would still be a mere symptom of our lack of democratic indepdendence. We have peolel holding power over us in the european commission that we cannot remove via the ballot box. Instead of focusing on this they prattle against foriegners. My guess is they knew that xenophobia speaks to a core fan base, and that by speaking that plummy, bloke/cad ,middle-brow tone they could make ukip the acceptable face of anti-foriegn sentiment.

Farage ran in an affluent 99% white constitioncy whilst trying to tell well-off people who only ever see a nonwhite face when they are seeing their muslim doctor or indian nurse that immigration is a ruinous threat to their way of life. They didnt buy it.

Meanwhile north of the border a progressive, left of centre party-probably pro immigration too -  crushed their opposition by selling a postitive message: telling their people that their country was too resourceful to hand over democratic power to their bigger neighbours.

Ho hum.

Get back under your rock farage