My name's Alex and I'd like to learn PLO

[Pinchop73]

Thanks chaps. Always great to read your posts.

Fwiw, hand 1 I called river and he had bare AAxx. Hand 2 we got it in and he had A5xx with the fd, ran twice and he made a flush on both doh!

Block so much of their value range in both hands. Really like the way you played both, unlucky man

[Pinchop73]

3way Equity:

ProPokerTools Omaha Hi Simulation
658,008 trials (Exhaustive)
9s8s7c6d 29.50%
asackcqd 38.49%
khqsjhts 32.01%

side pot equity:

ProPokerTools Omaha Hi Simulation
1,086,008 trials (Exhaustive)
9s8s7c6d 40.35%
asackcqd 59.65%


Total pot = £5100
Main pot = £3300
Side pot = £1800

0.295*(3300) + 0.4035*(1800) = £1699.8

Forgot to type that this was what I felt would be my personal worse case scenario.

Once we start considering the fact that player 1 has a >0% of holding spanners and our 3way equity starts edging closer to 35% it becomes marginally profitable vs a fold

[SuuPRlim]

you can do as many equity calculations as you want here you'll never get the answers

[Honeybadger]

It's close either way, right? So, if you want to gamble then go for it; if you don't then don't. Simples

[cambridgealex]

Thanks for that Pinchop- so £1700 is my EV in the coup if I call and are vs those hands?

So with £185 invested it's £1815 more to call, that means it's a fold?

Edit: just seen recent posts.

Worst case scenario is surely being crushed by sb 789T tho?

[Pinchop73]

Shit yeah that's really not good 

If we look at one of the worst case scenario's

ProPokerTools Omaha Hi Simulation
658,008 trials (Exhaustive)
9s8s7c6d 13.59%
tc9c8h7h 30.84%
asksadqd 55.57%

ProPokerTools Omaha Hi Simulation
1,086,008 trials (Exhaustive)
9s8s7c6d 34.62%
asksadqd 65.38%

0.1359*3300 + 0.3462*1800 = £1071 

you can do as many equity calculations as you want here you'll never get the answers

Hmm I respect you shit loads Dave but I'm not sure I can entire agree with that statement.

If we can assume both have AAxx which I think is probably one of the better situations we can get in (which is going to happen a LOT vs live players when you get 400bb in pre) then we get the follwing result:

ProPokerTools Omaha Hi Simulation
658,008 trials (Exhaustive)
9s8s7c6d 28.45%
ac9cAh7h 35.05%
asksadqh 36.50%

ProPokerTools Omaha Hi Simulation
1,086,008 trials (Exhaustive)
9s8s7c6d 37.40%
asksadqh 62.60%

0.2845*3300+0.374*1800 = £1612


But, I do not believe we're talking about particularly traditional live players here. One is going to know his three way equities very very well, and one more than likely really really isn't :p and so I think the chances of one of them getting it in with non AAxx hands is def >0%

ProPokerTools Omaha Hi Simulation
658,008 trials (Exhaustive)
9s8s7c6d 29.41%
khkd5c6h 22.70%
asksadqh 47.89%

0.2941*3300+0.374*1800 = £1643

ProPokerTools Omaha Hi Simulation
658,008 trials (Exhaustive)
9s8s7c6d 26.07%
9htcjhqd 29.86%
asksadqh 44.06%

0.26*3300+0.374*1800 = £1531

What I'm saying is that I'm really struggling to find ranges we get it in vs that'll be profitable scenario's, but there's a shit ton of ranges we get it in vs which are really not profitable at all.

[SuuPRlim]

What I meant was you'll never be able to equate for the random factor here especially with practicalily zero information.

Personalily I think you should fold, not because your EV is X but because taking this super high variance total guesswork spots is defo not how money is made in live cash games.

The amount of times iv been here and gone for it and seen someone randomly have KJ87 single or something I just don't think you need this hand in your life...

Obviously if you fancy gambling which is completely fine then this is a pretty fun spot, and perhaps good for image too...

I actually think as well you don't see these awesome run downs in people's hands all that often either which is defo a + point for getting it in.

[cambridgealex]

Dave, is the calling the £185 4bet ok? I thought the small sizing of the sb initial 3bet (20-55) meant he wasn't strong and because of how he'd played previously, he wouldn't be repotting all that often and this was more of a pot builder bet. That reasonable?

[tikay]

The thing that strikes me about this hand is if we call £1,800 or whatever pre, we really are gambling, & hoping for a good run out.

Our position is now irrelevant, there is no more poker to be played.

To me, I want to (try to) exert some skill into how I play a hand, & I need to take sensibly priced flops to do that.

At £185, given the stacks, yeah, I'm in. At anything much above that, no ta.

[cambridgealex]

I called thinking that we could probably run it twice so it wasn't massively high variance spot. Was up vs AAT8s and KQJ9s. Made the nuts on the first board but lost the second. That'll do...

[doubleup]

At £185, given the stacks, yeah, I'm in. At anything much above that, no ta.

Can't possibly see what is going to pay you this deep if you hit the flop.  Maybe you get it in vs a combi-draw but its hardly easy money.

[Honeybadger]

What I'm saying is that I'm really struggling to find ranges we get it in vs that'll be profitable scenario's, but there's a shit ton of ranges we get it in vs which are really not profitable at all.

It seems very easy to me to create match up where it is profitable. Here's one I randomly made up:

= 39.419%

= 33.957%

= 26.624%

You can make up 100 sims like this where you are going to be making money getting it in, and you could make up another 100 sims where you are going to be losing money getting it in. For that matter you could make up 100 sims where it is neutral. There is no way to know for sure whether it is a profitable get in, or a losing get in. But either way it is going to be very close, so it does not really matter. It feels like it matters of course, because it is going to be a huge pot and at the end of it you will either be stuck chunks or ahead chunks. But really it does not matter much at all.

That's why my advice is to simply do whatever you WANT to do. Just assume both folding and getting it in have EV = 0. So the question is, do you fancy taking a big neutral-EV gamble right at this moment or not?

My personal philosophy is to usually avoid neutral EV high variance spots. Cos I am sensible and boring and cautious. I have experienced just how extreme variance can be, and have no wish to deliberately seek to increase it in spots where I am not making money by doing so. On the other hand, it can be fun to have a big gamble from time to time. And last time I checked gambling is allowed in casinos!

BTW, if I ran like Alex rather than like me then I would probably be more inclined to gamble in these neutral-EV spots... #nicemoan

[Pinchop73]

  28.45%
  35.05%
  36.50%

Ridiculous (in a fascinating way) how the equities differ. Surprised me how much having suit outs changes the equity that much. Thank you

[Honeybadger]

28.45%
  35.05%
  36.50%

Ridiculous (in a fascinating way) how the equities differ. Surprised me how much having suit outs changes the equity that much. Thank you

Yeah live suits are worth around 5% in equity. In a HU pot 5% is a nice little boost. But the more multiway the pot becomes the more important live suits are. This is because 5% is not that much in a HU pot when 'par equity' is 50%. But in, say, a 5-way pot where par equity is 20%, that 5% increase is HUGE.

[SuuPRlim]

Dave, is the calling the £185 4bet ok? I thought the small sizing of the sb initial 3bet (20-55) meant he wasn't strong and because of how he'd played previously, he wouldn't be repotting all that often and this was more of a pot builder bet. That reasonable?

yeh yeh for defo, you could even call one more raise speshly if you're closing the action.

My instinct tells me that if we could genuinely run 90%+ accurate hand vs range vs range sim it would show this hand to be a small losing all-in.

If you somehow had a read that both players were very likely to have AA** then defo go with it and be loving it.

It is though, as I said totally impossible to produce some calcs here that you can trust have even 70% accuracy so with or without pro poker tools this spot is complete guesswork and massively high variance - I would avoid and as most people are aware I quite enjoy a bit of variance