The UK Politics and EU Referendum thread - merged

[TightEnd]

42% of Britons believe the UK will be economically better off post-Brexit. via @ORB_Int, 02 - 04 Mar

and have done all the way really.

 

Click to see full-size image.

[TightEnd]

https://t.co/wcMAsYI3bJ

[TightEnd]

Stephen Pollard: My Jeremy Corbyn dilemma

Should the JC have reported his membership of a secret Facebook group on its front page?

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think this would be massive if it was (JRM say) in a secret far right group, so why not the other waY?

https://www.thejc.com/comment/comment/my-jeremy-corbyn-dilemma-1.460305

[TightEnd]

EU freezes Brexit talks until Britain produces Irish border solution

http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/brexit-eu-talks-irish-border-tusk-varadkar-northern-ireland-uk-solution-dup-a8246216.html

[TightEnd]

All the signs are that the EU will stick to its line on Brexit

How will the PM respond?

https://blogs.spectator.co.uk/2018/03/how-will-may-respond-to-the-eus-brexit-approach/

[kukushkin88]

https://t.co/wcMAsYI3bJ

Pretty incredible that we still do and still will call it Democracy really.

[nirvana]

Put succinctly

Lux PM Bettel: "They were in with a load of opt-outs. Now they are out, and want a load of opt-ins.”

That's pretty good

[Jon MW]

https://t.co/wcMAsYI3bJ

Pretty incredible that we still do and still will call it Democracy really.

It might be naive - but isn't the Boundary Commision independent?

Or do they make recommendations and the exact 'shape' get decided by Parliament?

[Doobs]

https://t.co/wcMAsYI3bJ

Pretty incredible that we still do and still will call it Democracy really.

It might be naive - but isn't the Boundary Commision independent?

Or do they make recommendations and the exact 'shape' get decided by Parliament?

I am no Tory, but it is fairly standard that Labour constituencies get lost and new Conservative constituencies appear.  There is an ongoing trend where people move from rundown areas to nicer areas.  As rundown areas are more naturally Labour then over time, those are the contituencies that are going to get merged with others when boundaries are adjusted so the consituencies have more even numbers of consituents.  There are exceptions to this, such as people wanting to move into some London areas that are naturally Labour, and some constituencies are naturally smaller. Other than that, Labour gets an edge from this effect before boundary reviews, not the other way round, and all that happens at boundary reviews is it becomes more balanced.

Of course if there is some sort of way of rigging this process it would be awful, but this is just an often repeated story that is very misleading.   

[kukushkin88]

https://t.co/wcMAsYI3bJ

Pretty incredible that we still do and still will call it Democracy really.

It might be naive - but isn't the Boundary Commision independent?

Or do they make recommendations and the exact 'shape' get decided by Parliament?

I am no Tory, but it is fairly standard that Labour constituencies get lost and new Conservative constituencies appear.  There is an ongoing trend where people move from rundown areas to nicer areas.  As rundown areas are more naturally Labour then over time, those are the contituencies that are going to get merged with others when boundaries are adjusted so the consituencies have more even numbers of consituents.  There are exceptions to this, such as people wanting to move into some London areas that are naturally Labour, and some constituencies are naturally smaller. Other than that, Labour gets an edge from this effect before boundary reviews, not the other way round, and all that happens at boundary reviews is it becomes more balanced.

Of course if there is some sort of way of rigging this process it would be awful, but this is just an often repeated story that is very misleading.   

Interesting stuff, thanks. Some interesting articles in The Guardian on the subject as well, I'll have a more detailed look later.

Note to self: Take even more care not to believe everything your left wing buddies tell you.

[TightEnd]

Ipsos MORI/Evening Standard:

CON 43 (+3)
LAB 42 (=)
LD 6 (-3)
UKIP 2 (-2)

Fieldwork 2nd-7th Mar (changes vs 19th-23rd Jan)
N=1,012

[TightEnd]

a fascinating read


Robert Peston

‏By far the best analysis I've read of why May's Brexit trade plan may be dead on arrival.

It makes you wonder who is giving her technical, as opposed to political, advice 

http://eulawanalysis.blogspot.co.uk/2018/03/what-mutual-recognition-really-entails.html

[TightEnd]

Click to see full-size image.

[TightEnd]

According to the House of Commons Brexit Committee Brexit Impact Report, a Hard Brexit will cause an economic downturn that is even worse than the 1931 Great Depression

[TightEnd]

succinct part 2