The UK Politics and EU Referendum thread - merged

[EvilPie]

Can someone give me an unbiased view on what may or may not be expected to happen in the forthcoming months? I'm completely ignorant of UK politics these days (and a lot happier shall I say!).

Unfortunately not. Sorry.

[TightEnd]

Michael Gove has just pulled out of a scheduled press conference, which could be ominous for Theresa May.

but amusing for the rest of us

[TightEnd]

Andrew Neil
‏
Verified account
 
@afneil

The irony is that May's future is now in EU's hands. If it largely accepts her Chequers positions, she'll likely survive. If they insist on major rollbacks and she agrees, she's probably finished. Brussels apprehensive about dealing with Corbyn. So might not push May to limit

[TightEnd]

Boris resignation letter

note, no actually ideas to help, but plenty of whngeing

[TightEnd]

“A little surprised” - Theresa May to Boris Johnson

a little surprised is Yes prime minster speak for "WTF, you clueless pratt, you supported me on friday and now this? Fuck off"

[TightEnd]

We don’t know where Brexiteers are going now,and neither do they

https://blogs.spectator.co.uk/2018/07/we-dont-know-where-brexiteers-are-going-now-and-neither-do-they/

[TightEnd]

Confidence that Prime Minister May will get the right deal on Brexit

Out today - look at the red

Source: ORB

[TightEnd]

Alex Nunns
‏
@alexnunns

May will end up as the PM of the remain faction of the Tories, with the Brexiteers becoming a big irreconcilable rebel chunk, like the Blairites are in Labour. I've said May's historic role is to sell out the Brexiteers in the interests of capital. It could mean a split.

[kukushkin88]

Alex Nunns
‏
@alexnunns

May will end up as the PM of the remain faction of the Tories, with the Brexiteers becoming a big irreconcilable rebel chunk, like the Blairites are in Labour. I've said May's historic role is to sell out the Brexiteers in the interests of capital. It could mean a split.

Sounds OK, Labour splits as well, broad coalition of five parties for the next ~20 years. I’d take that compared to the 8 years of utter shambles that we’ve all suffered.

[Doobs]

Alex Nunns
‏
@alexnunns

May will end up as the PM of the remain faction of the Tories, with the Brexiteers becoming a big irreconcilable rebel chunk, like the Blairites are in Labour. I've said May's historic role is to sell out the Brexiteers in the interests of capital. It could mean a split.

Sounds OK, Labour splits as well, broad coalition of five parties for the next ~20 years. I’d take that compared to the 8 years of utter shambles that we’ve all suffered.

The tweet makes no sense though, you can't be prime minister of a faction of a party.   And haven't we previously been told that Rees Mogg and his capitalist mates stood to benefit from Brexit?   Who recruited her for the big capitalist conspiracy?   Why wasn't Rees Mogg up to the job?   And don't the capitalists make hay from the chaos?  Or was that last week?  I struggle to keep up with all the wild capitalist conspiracy theories.

I preferred it when they all just grew a pair and we all lived happily ever after.


 

[TightEnd]

Max Hastings, former boss of Boris, writes that it is a “common mistake to suppose Johnson a nice man”

[nirvana]

I really don't see how we can continue with negotiations with the EU when the line about no deal being better than a bad deal can't possibly be how we intend to proceed after the chequers 'agreement'. Even though it must be tempting for the EU to take advantage of this shambles and be a little conciliatory, it seems far more likely that they will stick to their red lines and we've really left ourselves nowhere to go. Up shit Creek as Mandelson put it on the Sunday Politics (he got told off).

Can't see how a snap general election would help either unless Labour does an about face and offers a second referendum so Brexit or not splits, sort of, on party lines.

[nirvana]

Worst of all I think is that the whole Brexit or not is going to reduce inevitably to the single issue which no one talks about with any integrity..freedom of movement. Labour and Tories seem able to water down their perspectives on customs union, single market, ECJ, alignment to the point where we're obviously Brexmaining, neither seem able to tell their supporters that free movement is going to continue and it's hard to imagine the EU, and why should they, giving ground on this.

[TightEnd]

its tough to know how it all works out

Hard Brexit can't get through the commons

but not sure soft brexit can either. There are 80 or so ERG MPs (who vote against Chequers), are there 80 or so Labour pro Europe MPs to vote with May to make it pass?

Rees-Mogg said yesterday "I would vote against the Chequers deal on Monday and vote against no confidence on May on Tuesday"

huh?

The assumption is that when May and the EU get to talking her white paper that the EU will extract further concessions such that in essence we'd be on the outside but paying as if we were in

but if neither soft or hard brexit can get through the commons what's left? no deal?

eg

Kevin Schofield
‏
@PolhomeEditor

"Theresa May told Cabinet today that preparation for a no deal Brexit is to be “stepped up”. Brace brace!!"

As for Corbyn, as much use as a chocolate log in a heatwave in these circumstances (if you want him to lead support for a "Brexin")  but I sort of understand what the plan is

sit tight, if soft brexit is the result the Conservatives lose a big chunk of membership support (UKIP support increases again?)...the Con party is much harder brexit than the commons is..and he wins the general election when their support splinters?

[nirvana]

I have a new idea. I'd say 80% of Brits don't care about abstract (to them) ideas about alignment, customs unions etc even when you throw in all hard line brexit theorists, sovereignistas, special interest groups like fishers into the side that does care.

They should frame a ref question around freedom of movement:

Anti, vote out, WTO,  and no negotiation of anything..see where the chips fall

Pro..vote remain