The UK Politics and EU Referendum thread - merged

[nirvana]

its tough to know how it all works out

Hard Brexit can't get through the commons

but not sure soft brexit can either. There are 80 or so ERG MPs (who vote against Chequers), are there 80 or so Labour pro Europe MPs to vote with May to make it pass?

Rees-Mogg said yesterday "I would vote against the Chequers deal on Monday and vote against no confidence on May on Tuesday"

huh?

The assumption is that when May and the EU get to talking her white paper that the EU will extract further concessions such that in essence we'd be on the outside but paying as if we were in

but if neither soft or hard brexit can get through the commons what's left? no deal?

eg

Kevin Schofield
‏
@PolhomeEditor

"Theresa May told Cabinet today that preparation for a no deal Brexit is to be “stepped up”. Brace brace!!"

As for Corbyn, as much use as a chocolate log in a heatwave in these circumstances (if you want him to lead support for a "Brexin")  but I sort of understand what the plan is

sit tight, if soft brexit is the result the Conservatives lose a big chunk of membership support (UKIP support increases again?)...the Con party is much harder brexit than the commons is..and he wins the general election when their support splinters?

Really hard to see how this plays out anything other than shambolically from here. Too late now but would have been better to use 2 years preparing for crashing out rather than pretending there was an alternative. I can't really get angry about politics  but the scale of.incompetence is breathtaking.

[TightEnd]

from a psephologist, Prof Chris Hanretty at Uni of London

"There have been lots of claims by Brexit-supporting opponents of the Chequers position that it doesn't reflect what Leave voters voted for

Research on what voters thought *at the time of* the referendum often reveals that voters had very limited knowledge of what they were voting for

(This isn't just a referendum thing: voters generally have low levels of issue-specific knowledge, and operate on cues and other heuristics. Not everyone is a sad political obsessive)

Example: before the referendum, one in four voters couldn't even say whether losing access to the single market *was likely or not*

Did people know that Brexit meant leaving the single market? Two weeks before EU ref, only 22% of Leavers thought it did

We do, however, have information from current polls as to what 2016 Leave voters think *now* about the Chequers position

A Survation poll for the Mail on Sunday showed that when asked about the Chequers position:
 - 30% of Leave voters approved
 - 25% disapproved
 - 36% neither approved nor disapproved, and
 - 9% didn't know

Those figures are likely to change as Leave voters update their beliefs following high profile resignations. But Leave voters, presented with a short summary, are slightly more likely to approve of it than disapprove

[TightEnd]

Here was a question from the Survation poll...do people agree with the Chequers deal or not..

when asked to answer this, what percentage glazed over?

80% 95% 99%?

[bookiebasher]

Tighty , what do you think about even money no brexit deal before 1st April 2019 ?

Personally I think it should be odds on with all the chaos and uncertainty.

Really cannot see May getting a "soft" Brexit through and the EU are obviously
playing hardball because if the UK gets anything like a decent deal then the dominoes
will start falling surely ?

[TightEnd]

Tighty , what do you think about even money no brexit deal before 1st April 2019 ?

Personally I think it should be odds on with all the chaos and uncertainty.

Really cannot see May getting a "soft" Brexit through and the EU are obviously
playing hardball because if the UK gets anything like a decent deal then the dominoes
will start falling surely ?

can't say whether its value or not, no idea

is it more likely than a week ago? has to be, as there doesn't seem to be a parliamentary majority of any of the options

Definitely would be a big majority for soft if you had a remainer leading Labour

[bookiebasher]

May is not going to get a "good" deal out of this so in my eyes

she's a dead man walking.

Nothing is going to get passed as everyone is so divided.

No deal seems the only option if she want's to stay in power.

[RickBFA]

May is not going to get a "good" deal out of this so in my eyes

she's a dead man walking.

Nothing is going to get passed as everyone is so divided.

No deal seems the only option if she want's to stay in power.

She is a dead man walking - has been since the last election in reality. The Tory party have been itching to get rid of her.

Thing is, right now, no one wants the job as it is career suicide to take it. Even Rees Mogg wants to keep her in position for now.

[RED-DOG]

Once again I have been well informed and laugh out loud entertained by this thread.

DSO for Tighty, CGM for nirvana, mention in despatches for Doobs.

[TightEnd]

This is bloody good https://www.nytimes.com/2018/07/10/opinion/boris-johnson-resignation-brexit.html

[ripple11]

Thank God Donald is arriving soon.....he'll sort us out.

[MANTIS01]

This is bloody good https://www.nytimes.com/2018/07/10/opinion/boris-johnson-resignation-brexit.html

Really? I think it's nonsense. It assumes things like the Leave campaign was super effective in helping peoples decide. Or joe bloggs in the street gives a fig what Boris Johnson said or promised. Pretty sure neither of those things are true. Pretty sure nobody gave a fuck about the £350m Brexit bus promise either. Hands up who believed those promises at the time? However, I am sure multiple politicians from every party have contributed to this debacle. Character assassination of one person is plain unhelpful and avoiding the broader problems but thx for the feedback Trump-lead USA.

Personally I really don't think the catalyst for a Leave vote had anything to do with promises Boris Johnson made. I mean believing promises by politicians has to stem from fundamental trust and I'm sure we all ran out of that currency long ago. It's all well and good commentators standing on the side lines jumping up and down in animated glee at the turmoil our country finds itself in but it comes across as high level baboonery. Those uttering "taken back control yet?" are simply gripped with the same feverish zombism that football fans gurning "it's coming home" are. What is the actual point of using these phrases?

I know the super helpful Remain camp are wetting their pants to "blame" somebody so we might as well "blame" the negotiators who penned the original deal for not inserting a viable escape route all those years ago. Maybot is simply the present incumbent wrestling with an impossible problem nobody was going to solve. The actual fact is those emotional hotspots that did provoke a Leave vote are still very much real and how to address those concerns is the real issue here. Not whether Boris has tendered his notice.

Not solving these issues in the haze of the blame game will promote far right politics and that's not something we should embrace. It might be amusing to some that Maybot can't solve this stuff but somebody is gonna need to solve this stuff. Yah, actually I hope there's an election cos I'm genuinely happy for Corbyn to step up and show us how he would solve this stuff.   

[TightEnd]

This is bloody good https://www.nytimes.com/2018/07/10/opinion/boris-johnson-resignation-brexit.html

Really? I think it's nonsense. It assumes things like the Leave campaign was super effective in helping peoples decide. Or joe bloggs in the street gives a fig what Boris Johnson said or promised. Pretty sure neither of those things are true. Pretty sure nobody gave a fuck about the £350m Brexit bus promise either. Hands up who believed those promises at the time? However, I am sure multiple politicians from every party have contributed to this debacle. Character assassination of one person is plain unhelpful and avoiding the broader problems but thx for the feedback Trump-lead USA.

Personally I really don't think the catalyst for a Leave vote had anything to do with promises Boris Johnson made. I mean believing promises by politicians has to stem from fundamental trust and I'm sure we all ran out of that currency long ago. It's all well and good commentators standing on the side lines jumping up and down in animated glee at the turmoil our country finds itself in but it comes across as high level baboonery. Those uttering "taken back control yet?" are simply gripped with the same feverish zombism that football fans gurning "it's coming home" are. What is the actual point of using these phrases?

I know the super helpful Remain camp are wetting their pants to "blame" somebody so we might as well "blame" the negotiators who penned the original deal for not inserting a viable escape route all those years ago. Maybot is simply the present incumbent wrestling with an impossible problem nobody was going to solve. The actual fact is those emotional hotspots that did provoke a Leave vote are still very much real and how to address those concerns is the real issue here. Not whether Boris has tendered his notice.

Not solving these issues in the haze of the blame game will promote far right politics and that's not something we should embrace. It might be amusing to some that Maybot can't solve this stuff but somebody is gonna need to solve this stuff. Yah, actually I hope there's an election cos I'm genuinely happy for Corbyn to step up and show us how he would solve this stuff.   

i think much of that is true but it doesn't invalidate the article, merely that Boris' over-arching narcissism, fantasies and out-dated colonial leanings are a lightening rod for the fact (FACT!) that it is still the case that not a single leaver has a solution that disentangles us from the EU without trashing the economy, risking peace in northern ireland and customs chaos in 2019.

May's solution, full of compromises and no doubt likely to get watered down again, that gives the economy a shot at getting through, protects the Good Friday agreement and still allows divergence in services is the best we've got (apart from remain, which can't happen, from a democratic viewpoint)

I will post some stuff tomorrow about Con party voters (obviously they assimilated a lot of UKIP votes in 2017) how they are now much more hardline leave than pre-2016 and how May or the next Tory PM could get turfed out at the next election as a result, but for now she appears to have taken the line that a soft deal of sorts, whatever that looks like, is better than a hard brexit which we can confidently expect to be terrible news in the real world (including for the working class who voted because they were disenfranchised and felt threatened by migration) and not in the world of "we hate the EU nothing else matters" blue rinse conservative 70 year olds.

Her gamble is she survives long enough, that the EU bend a bit, and they avoid no deal. Might be a close run thing

[MANTIS01]

Bue rinse brigade are folk most affected by the war, most in need of stretched public services, most vulnerable to increase in crime. Think understanding their concerns rather than tagging them euro-haters is more intelligent way to build towards a solution. British people are fiercely independent and have very real fears. The outstanding, number 1, top of the line fear is being bullied around by Europe and I've gotta say these negotiations have shown Europe to be solid gold bullies. If we had another referendum tomorrow I still think it's fiddy fiddy. The only reason Leave trashes the economy is down to the rigidity of Europe, the rest of the world been complaining about it for years.

[TightEnd]

Bue rinse brigade are folk most affected by the war, most in need of stretched public services, most vulnerable to increase in crime. Think understanding their concerns rather than tagging them euro-haters is more intelligent way to build towards a solution. British people are fiercely independent and have very real fears. The outstanding, number 1, top of the line fear is being bullied around by Europe and I've gotta say these negotiations have shown Europe to be solid gold bullies. If we had another referendum tomorrow I still think it's fiddy fiddy. The only reason Leave trashes the economy is down to the rigidity of Europe, the rest of the world been complaining about it for years.

no no no. :-)

the 100% number 1 is the economy. Always has been. We'll leave the fact that migration aids economic growth for now!

The reason it trashes if we leave is that we have 40 years of interdependence in all areas of the economy and economic policy. In a world of globalisation, particularly in supply chains, its very difficult to unwind that without massive dislocation.

[kukushkin88]

This is bloody good https://www.nytimes.com/2018/07/10/opinion/boris-johnson-resignation-brexit.html

Really? I think it's nonsense. It assumes things like the Leave campaign was super effective in helping peoples decide. Or joe bloggs in the street gives a fig what Boris Johnson said or promised. Pretty sure neither of those things are true. Pretty sure nobody gave a fuck about the £350m Brexit bus promise either. Hands up who believed those promises at the time? However, I am sure multiple politicians from every party have contributed to this debacle. Character assassination of one person is plain unhelpful and avoiding the broader problems but thx for the feedback Trump-lead USA.

Personally I really don't think the catalyst for a Leave vote had anything to do with promises Boris Johnson made. I mean believing promises by politicians has to stem from fundamental trust and I'm sure we all ran out of that currency long ago. It's all well and good commentators standing on the side lines jumping up and down in animated glee at the turmoil our country finds itself in but it comes across as high level baboonery. Those uttering "taken back control yet?" are simply gripped with the same feverish zombism that football fans gurning "it's coming home" are. What is the actual point of using these phrases?

I know the super helpful Remain camp are wetting their pants to "blame" somebody so we might as well "blame" the negotiators who penned the original deal for not inserting a viable escape route all those years ago. Maybot is simply the present incumbent wrestling with an impossible problem nobody was going to solve. The actual fact is those emotional hotspots that did provoke a Leave vote are still very much real and how to address those concerns is the real issue here. Not whether Boris has tendered his notice.
,
Not solving these issues in the haze of the blame game will promote far right politics and that's not something we should embrace. It might be amusing to some that Maybot can't solve this stuff but somebody is gonna need to solve this stuff. Yah, actually I hope there's an election cos I'm genuinely happy for Corbyn to step up and show us how he would solve this stuff.   

Certainly a good post in my eyes. I wonder how many of the problems are government problems rather than Europe problems. In the event of a GE, it might well be Boris/Gove leading us to the promised land though, rather than JC.