The UK Politics and EU Referendum thread - merged

[MANTIS01]

Another satisfying part of this Brexit fiasco for me is how Left Remain are teaching Right Leave about economics. The socialists telling the capitalists they need to know it's all about the money the money. Oh is that right?

Thought that's why Thatcher closed the mines? Anyway wish she was around today, would've eaten Barnier on toast for breakfast.

I do disagree about the number 1 because economy runs in cycles but independence is part of our DNA for thousands of years. Sure logic says it's money but we will set fire to dollar bills before we compromise who we are. It might be the number 1 for like the top 1% of thinkers but not for 99% of impoverished joe bloggs. A lot of this problem is Remain trying to teach Leave the logic they don't rightly care about. Do better to understand their emotions I think. We have seen very clearly in this process the more persistent the threats and financial gloom the more determined the Brits are. It's not all about the ch-ching ch-ching, forget about the price tag, we just wanna make the world dance.

[doubleup]

Another satisfying part of this Brexit fiasco for me is how Left Remain are teaching Right Leave about economics. The socialists telling the capitalists they need to know it's all about the money the money. Oh is that right?

Well when a Tory Foreign Secretary says "Fu-k business" it isn't very difficult to take the high ground.

[kukushkin88]

Another satisfying part of this Brexit fiasco for me is how Left Remain are teaching Right Leave about economics. The socialists telling the capitalists they need to know it's all about the money the money. Oh is that right?

Thought that's why Thatcher closed the mines? Anyway wish she was around today, would've eaten Barnier on toast for breakfast.

I do disagree about the number 1 because economy runs in cycles but independence is part of our DNA for thousands of years. Sure logic says it's money but we will set fire to dollar bills before we compromise who we are. It might be the number 1 for like the top 1% of thinkers but not for 99% of impoverished joe bloggs. A lot of this problem is Remain trying to teach Leave the logic they don't rightly care about. Do better to understand their emotions I think. We have seen very clearly in this process the more persistent the threats and financial gloom the more determined the Brits are. It's not all about the ch-ching ch-ching, forget about the price tag, we just wanna make the world dance.

Thatcher would probably have ended up with no deal and that at least on one level is principled. She’d have begged for and failed to get a decent deal first though. The EU dictate all the terms and have no obligation to look after us.

[kukushkin88]

Another satisfying part of this Brexit fiasco for me is how Left Remain are teaching Right Leave about economics. The socialists telling the capitalists they need to know it's all about the money the money. Oh is that right?

Thought that's why Thatcher closed the mines? Anyway wish she was around today, would've eaten Barnier on toast for breakfast.

I do disagree about the number 1 because economy runs in cycles but independence is part of our DNA for thousands of years. Sure logic says it's money but we will set fire to dollar bills before we compromise who we are. It might be the number 1 for like the top 1% of thinkers but not for 99% of impoverished joe bloggs. A lot of this problem is Remain trying to teach Leave the logic they don't rightly care about. Do better to understand their emotions I think. We have seen very clearly in this process the more persistent the threats and financial gloom the more determined the Brits are. It's not all about the ch-ching ch-ching, forget about the price tag, we just wanna make the world dance.

Thatcher would probably have ended up with no deal and that at least on one level is principled. She’d have begged for and failed to get a decent deal first though. The EU dictate all the terms and have no obligation to look after us.

I guess it would be better to say, ‘have no obligation to put our interests ahead of theirs’. Which is obvious of course but until now, has not been widely accepted.

[TightEnd]

Peaches, anyone?

Ministers draw up secret plans to stockpile processed food in case of a ‘no deal’ Brexit

https://www.thesun.co.uk/news/6747231/ministers-plan-to-stockpile-processed-food/

[TightEnd]

Prediction from someone last night

1) May’s Brexit position softens further
2) She leaves vote to last possible moment
3) She takes remainer rump with her and forces Lab to choose soft deal or crashing out. She becomes Tory Ramsay MacDonald
4) Tory MPs split.

[TightEnd]

LBC

James O'Brien
‏
Verified account
 
@mrjamesob

The Brexit you voted for is either undeliverable or objectively undesirable. Everybody in politics & the media knows this now (bar a few helpless loonbuckets) but none of them can say it out loud.

[TightEnd]

Robert Harris (Blairite author)
‏
Where is the majority in parliament for *any* Brexit deal? Govt's present plan would be defeated by Lab + Tory europhobes. A hard Brexit would be defeated by Lab + Tory europhiles. A 2nd referendum (though an awful prospect) looks like the only way to resolve it

[TightEnd]

pol journolast night

It occurs to me that we may not be viewing Theresa May’s ‘Chequers Brexit’ crisis in quite the right way. And we may, just may, be underestimating her.  So here’s a short ruminatory thread, just to see what you all think. 1/6

We assumed the PM’s Chequers Summit was about achieving unity, forcing her Cabinet Brexiteers into supporting her. And that the key metric of her success or failure was whether she stopped anyone resigning (which the “lose your ministerial car” stuff just fuelled further) 2/6

But what if the goal of Friday’s Chequers Summit was not unity, but division? What if the PM has decided, given the kind of Brexit she has concluded can be the only Brexit in town, that the current Tory Party cannot be the political coalition that can deliver it? 3/6

If you think the current Tory Party cannot deliver Brexit, you have to build a new coalition. Which means two things: 1) dividing the Brexiteers, to peel off the pragmatists from the purists; 2) dividing Labour, to peel off the pragmatists from the Corbynites. 4/6

Viewed in the way, today’s spectacular resignations are exactly what the PM needs. The Brexiteers are now infighting. And sending Gavin Barwell to appeal to Labour in the national interest is the start of phase 2. Labour needs to split for the PM’s strategy to have a chance. 5/6

Was this her real strategy? Am I giving her too much Machiavellian credit? Probably. But a Tory Brexit house divided could help her hugely. And given where she is, a soft Brexit coalition that splits both Labour MPs & Tory Brexiteers is her only choice. 6/6

[TightEnd]

extract from Bradleys resignation letter below

The EU won’t agree a deal without a Northern Ireland backstop so this is a fantasy. The alternative is to leave without a deal and we simply aren’t in a position to depart without a transition agreement and arrangements for things like air travel.

[TightEnd]

not much changing...

In hindsight was Britain right or wrong to vote to leave the EU?

Right 42% (-1)
Wrong 46% (-)

Remainers 90% "wrong"
Leavers 83% "right"

Conservatives 70% "right"
Labour 70% "wrong"

YouGov July 8-9

[TightEnd]

this is what i was referring to last night

Matthew Goodwin
‏
Verified account
 
@GoodwinMJ

Inside the minds of Conservative Party voters - a thread

We seem to be talking a lot about what Conservative MPs want but not a lot about what Conservative voters want

One of the reasons that many in Britain have been repeatedly shocked by political change -Ukip, Corbyn, Brexit- is because they've not been paying sufficient attention to public opinion & voters

The seeds of future revolts have already been planted

The following draws on some work out today using the British Social Attitudes survey & @whatukthinks and some bits I've been doing for @jrf_uk and others

First, Conservative voters today are far more pro-Leave than they were only 3 years ago

Large majority just want out

Second, they've become far more gloomy about how immigration is changing Britain

Fewer than 1 in 4 think it is enriching the nation's cultural life

Third, when given the option --"free movement for free trade?" -- an overwhelming majority say no

Most want free movement to stop

Might be tempting to think these views might change or that these voters could be won over by a clever campaign or policy pitch...

That's very unlikely. Because we are talking about people's values, or the elephant that is driving the rider, and those instincts don't really change.

For example...

It's become far more socially conservative or 'authoritarian'

This partly reflects the way in which, since 2016, Conservative Party has hoovered up ex-UKIP voters but also something else ...

The Conservatives under May have also attracted a lot more non-graduates who also tend to hold more socially conservative outlooks

Worth remembering too that many more of today's Conservative voters --unlike the days of Maastricht -- are open to switching their votes

Around 7 in 10 Leavers had either already abandoned the mainstream for UKIP or said they would consider doing so -- so this electorate in my view at least is a lot less 'tribal' than it once was

This outlook is why a few days ago

-only 33% of current Conservative voters told @Survation the #Chequers deal was 'faithful to the referendum'

-and only 34% think it is the 'right deal for Britain'

I hear Tories saying "well our voters don't have anywhere to go". Sounds like New Labour types in 2000s who then later realised they'd lost a big chunk of their electorate, either to UKIP or Cons or simply to apathy

We also need to remember -as @jon_mellon has shown- that overall rates of volatility in Britain today (I.e. ppl switching votes) are at some of the highest levels on record

One big risk for the Cons is a UKIP 2.0 party. But an equally big if not greater risk is simply widespread apathy -- committed Leavers just stay home after concluding that politics makes no difference

Some Cons say "oh well the fear of Corbyn" will turn them out. I'm not convinced. For these voters Brexit & immigration control are existential, value-led issues. The level of disillusionment after a "soft sell-out" deal will be profound.

The next general election also looks set to be the 4th in recent history that will be entirely fear-based (Corbyn is a threat!!) But the potency of fear has arguably worn off. Even in 2015 with "Red Ed + SNP" 4 million voters decamped to UKIP ..

So it may be that the gaping disconnect may yet deliver some profound effects. Perhaps a recast Conservative Party, fairly widespread apathy (especially among the working class) or something new altogether. But 'business as usual' for the Con Party seems very unlikely /ends

[TightEnd]

 
@GeorgeTrefgarne (Telegraph)

1. I have been further reading (and taking counsel from wiser minds than my own) into ditching the whole Theresa May Brexit approach and falling back on EEA membership. It is very clear that this HAS TO BE THE PLAN

2. First, it is off the shelf. It already works and we are already contracting parties. The whole bespoke approach has turned into North Korea re-inventing the I-phone, a fiasco

3. Second it has numerous advantages: no CAP, no common fisheries policy, no customs union

4. No direct jurisdiction of the ECJ. That is complicated as EFTA court (which mostly polices EEA) follows ECJ case law. But they collaborate to ensure a homogenous approach and there is wiggle room to diverge.

there is no 5

6. It is true there is still freedom of movement, but there is an emergency break, unlike in transition and anyway EEA membership would be temporary

7. Another advantage, is with some careful work this might be acceptable to a large number of MPs of all parties, including a substantial number of Leavers.

8. Clearly, however, Theresa May cannot do it. Someone else would have to do so.

9. Nothing is perfect. But the whole May bespoke approach, though worth a go, has essentially failed for many reasons, of which the loss of the Conservative majority is probably the most important

10. Big question, would @BorisJohnson or @Jacob_Rees_Mogg go for it? And what about @DavidDavisMP and @SteveBakerHW ? I believe we must persuade them. This is the Little Ships solution at Dunkirk. Not perfect, but avoids national humiliation and buys time to sort ourselves out

11. And my personal guess is @michaelgove may be persuadable, as long as he doesn't spend too much time polishing the Chequers Coprolite, first discovered in York in 1972 https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lloyds_Bank_coprolite …

[TightEnd]

Brexit is affecting the UK economy: a decrease in output of approximately £500 million per week.

http://blogs.lse.ac.uk/brexit/2018/07/10/higher-inflation-lower-wages-and-decreasing-output-brexit-is-starting-to-negatively-affect-the-uk-economy/

[nirvana]

Robert Harris (Blairite author)
‏
Where is the majority in parliament for *any* Brexit deal? Govt's present plan would be defeated by Lab + Tory europhobes. A hard Brexit would be defeated by Lab + Tory europhiles. A 2nd referendum (though an awful prospect) looks like the only way to resolve it

I really feel like this now.  Demonstrably, over 2 years, it's plain there is no political will to leave hard..ie enact the referendum decision. A soft brexit is surely of no benefit to and satisfies no-one