The UK Politics and EU Referendum thread - merged

[TightEnd]

More than 100 seats that backed Brexit now want to remain in EU

Major new analysis shows most constituencies now have majority who want to Remain

The penny has dropped in Labour constituencies (too late)

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2018/aug/11/more-than-100-pro-leave-constituencies-switch-to-remain?CMP=Share_iOSApp_Other

[TightEnd]

(nods)

not that it matters, no one cares about the economics (yet)

Hard-Brexit fantasists dislike hard economic realities

https://www.theguardian.com/business/2018/aug/12/hard-brexit-fantasists-dislike-hard-economic-realities?CMP=twt_gu

[booder]

Does anyone know if continental quilts will still work after Brexit?

No the Togs will have to go back to Togo

 

[TightEnd]

Despite the swagger, Team Corbyn fears one thing: a breakaway party

and every time we get "wreath at the grave of munich terorists" and other stuff etc it comes closer

https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/ecdc164c-9d74-11e8-89e6-46fcaabd1aea

[TightEnd]

If this was the leader of any other major political party, he or she would be gone by now?

discuss

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-6048807/Photos-Labour-leader-Corbyn-tribute-event-Palestine-martyrs-linked-Munich-massacre.html

[Pokerpops]

On the other hand...

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2018/08/10/growth-doubles-04pc-economy-bounces-back-cold-snap/

[TightEnd]

On the other hand...

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2018/08/10/growth-doubles-04pc-economy-bounces-back-cold-snap/

a) the BoE helped us avoid something nasty with Quantitative easing after the leave vote. bought gilts and pumped money into the economy. The leaver reaction was to ignore this and claim that all the previous forecasts were wrong, project fear etc

b) we haven't left yet. the ONS said household consumption remained subdued and business investment fell in the first quarter.

We are entering 29th March 2019 from a position of weakness. Albeit attempts to shore this up with stockpiling and some rather late/unprepared contingency plans in case of no deal

[Pokerpops]

If this was the leader of any other major political party, he or she would be gone by now?

discuss

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-6048807/Photos-Labour-leader-Corbyn-tribute-event-Palestine-martyrs-linked-Munich-massacre.html

But how would that happen given the rules and the strength of the pro-Corbyn activists?
With Labour MPs in fear of deselection and the local organisations being hijacked by Momentum I think Corbyn could probably get away with far worse.

[TightEnd]

If this was the leader of any other major political party, he or she would be gone by now?

discuss

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-6048807/Photos-Labour-leader-Corbyn-tribute-event-Palestine-martyrs-linked-Munich-massacre.html

But how would that happen given the rules and the strength of the pro-Corbyn activists?
With Labour MPs in fear of deselection and the local organisations being hijacked by Momentum I think Corbyn could probably get away with far worse.

which is why i said any other party. not this one

[Pokerpops]

On the other hand...

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2018/08/10/growth-doubles-04pc-economy-bounces-back-cold-snap/

a) the BoE helped us avoid something nasty with Quantitative easing after the leave vote. bought gilts and pumped money into the economy. The leaver reaction was to ignore this and claim that all the previous forecasts were wrong, project fear etc

b) we haven't left yet. the ONS said household consumption remained subdued and business investment fell in the first quarter.

We are entering 29th March 2019 from a position of weakness. Albeit attempts to shore this up with stockpiling and some rather late/unprepared contingency plans in case of no deal

You may well be right. In fact, you probably are, your brain and knowledge of the issues is far greater than mine.
I’m still inclined to feel better about leaving than staying for non-economic, non-immigration reasons so I will look for the positive where I can.

One thing I am sure of, if we do arrive at 29 March 2019 with absolutely no deal then it’s not just us that have failed. Nor is it just us that will have problems.
But we may well be the ones that have the best opportunities.

[TightEnd]

On the other hand...

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2018/08/10/growth-doubles-04pc-economy-bounces-back-cold-snap/

a) the BoE helped us avoid something nasty with Quantitative easing after the leave vote. bought gilts and pumped money into the economy. The leaver reaction was to ignore this and claim that all the previous forecasts were wrong, project fear etc

b) we haven't left yet. the ONS said household consumption remained subdued and business investment fell in the first quarter.

We are entering 29th March 2019 from a position of weakness. Albeit attempts to shore this up with stockpiling and some rather late/unprepared contingency plans in case of no deal

You may well be right. In fact, you probably are, your brain and knowledge of the issues is far greater than mine.
I’m still inclined to feel better about leaving than staying for non-economic, non-immigration reasons so I will look for the positive where I can.

One thing I am sure of, if we do arrive at 29 March 2019 with absolutely no deal then it’s not just us that have failed. Nor is it just us that will have problems.
But we may well be the ones that have the best opportunities.

David, (I assume it is David, letting byegones be byegones!) would your attitude be any different if you were 30 or 40 years younger with a young family do you think?

[Pokerpops]

On the other hand...

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2018/08/10/growth-doubles-04pc-economy-bounces-back-cold-snap/

a) the BoE helped us avoid something nasty with Quantitative easing after the leave vote. bought gilts and pumped money into the economy. The leaver reaction was to ignore this and claim that all the previous forecasts were wrong, project fear etc

b) we haven't left yet. the ONS said household consumption remained subdued and business investment fell in the first quarter.

We are entering 29th March 2019 from a position of weakness. Albeit attempts to shore this up with stockpiling and some rather late/unprepared contingency plans in case of no deal

You may well be right. In fact, you probably are, your brain and knowledge of the issues is far greater than mine.
I’m still inclined to feel better about leaving than staying for non-economic, non-immigration reasons so I will look for the positive where I can.

One thing I am sure of, if we do arrive at 29 March 2019 with absolutely no deal then it’s not just us that have failed. Nor is it just us that will have problems.
But we may well be the ones that have the best opportunities.

David, (I assume it is David, letting byegones be byegones!) would your attitude be any different if you were 30 or 40 years younger with a young family do you think?

Busted

I might have thought differently back then, but maybe I am wiser now?

[TightEnd]

On the other hand...

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2018/08/10/growth-doubles-04pc-economy-bounces-back-cold-snap/

a) the BoE helped us avoid something nasty with Quantitative easing after the leave vote. bought gilts and pumped money into the economy. The leaver reaction was to ignore this and claim that all the previous forecasts were wrong, project fear etc

b) we haven't left yet. the ONS said household consumption remained subdued and business investment fell in the first quarter.

We are entering 29th March 2019 from a position of weakness. Albeit attempts to shore this up with stockpiling and some rather late/unprepared contingency plans in case of no deal

You may well be right. In fact, you probably are, your brain and knowledge of the issues is far greater than mine.
I’m still inclined to feel better about leaving than staying for non-economic, non-immigration reasons so I will look for the positive where I can.

One thing I am sure of, if we do arrive at 29 March 2019 with absolutely no deal then it’s not just us that have failed. Nor is it just us that will have problems.
But we may well be the ones that have the best opportunities.

David, (I assume it is David, letting byegones be byegones!) would your attitude be any different if you were 30 or 40 years younger with a young family do you think?

Busted

I might have thought differently back then, but maybe I am wiser now?

or, without making too many assumptions, more insulated from the economic risks so able to hold some convictions that younger people shouldn't have.

JRM himself, high priest of the ERG, expects to see the benefits in 50 years. Neither of us will be around. 

[Pokerpops]

On the other hand...

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2018/08/10/growth-doubles-04pc-economy-bounces-back-cold-snap/

a) the BoE helped us avoid something nasty with Quantitative easing after the leave vote. bought gilts and pumped money into the economy. The leaver reaction was to ignore this and claim that all the previous forecasts were wrong, project fear etc

b) we haven't left yet. the ONS said household consumption remained subdued and business investment fell in the first quarter.

We are entering 29th March 2019 from a position of weakness. Albeit attempts to shore this up with stockpiling and some rather late/unprepared contingency plans in case of no deal

You may well be right. In fact, you probably are, your brain and knowledge of the issues is far greater than mine.
I’m still inclined to feel better about leaving than staying for non-economic, non-immigration reasons so I will look for the positive where I can.

One thing I am sure of, if we do arrive at 29 March 2019 with absolutely no deal then it’s not just us that have failed. Nor is it just us that will have problems.
But we may well be the ones that have the best opportunities.

David, (I assume it is David, letting byegones be byegones!) would your attitude be any different if you were 30 or 40 years younger with a young family do you think?

Busted

I might have thought differently back then, but maybe I am wiser now?

or, without making too many assumptions, more insulated from the economic risks so able to hold some convictions that younger people shouldn't have.

JRM himself, high priest of the ERG, expects to see the benefits in 50 years. Neither of us will be around. 

I always admired those people who planted trees that wouldn’t grow in their lifetime.

[4KSuited]

This is the crux of it, for me.

We were never going to get another opportunity to vote on this issue in our lifetimes. Unfortunately the decision to go to the vote, and the way the question was framed in a horrendously simplistic way. But we didn't have the option to go back to the government to get it re-framed. For its part, the government was too complacent & arrogant to consider the possibility that the vote wouldn't go their way.

Moving on to the present, there's still the underlying assumption by the Remainers that all would be rosy in our country in 50+ years time if we simply took the easy option & stayed in the EU. Can anybody look forward with certainty at the state of our public services, infrastructure, National Health, housing supply, employment rate, welfare state burden etc etc etc after 50 more years of unrestricted immigration from an expanding EU - membership to which we seem to have had little (if any) say in? My view is that it is a pretty depressing view in the crystal ball. London is already effectively a separate state within the country, and I suspect that most of the other conurbations are much the same. But that's just a personal view.

How good a legacy would this be for our children and their children? Remainers seem to be suggesting that the drawbridge will be pulled up and our citizens will be refused entry to the EU on any basis other than tourism. These exaggerated points from Remainers really don't help to address legitimate concerns. Just like all the doomsday views from the experts and the thinly veiled threats from the Chancellor. I also have difficulty in accepting that all 18-24 year olds have sufficient life and political experience to have views that carry equivalent weight to all those aged 40+ (for example). Most other cultures take the view that the elders are wiser, and that they should be listened to: in the aftermath of the Brexit vote, the elders of this country were portrayed as Little Englander halfwits. Not good, IMO.

There are no absolutes in all of this, but the more that the Remain side believe that they have a monopoly on accurate crystal ball gazing, the more difficulty they will have convincing Leavers to change views