The UK Politics and EU Referendum thread - merged

[Archer]

An excellent twitter thread on the backstop problem and looking at it from all sides:

https://twitter.com/DavidHenigUK/status/1156469384652701697

[aaron1867]

If we assume a General Election would be called this year, what do you think the outcome would be?

Tories - Biggest loser and will lose seats - End up somewhere between 180-220.

Brexit Party - They'll pick up a few dozen, but lack of domestic agenda will hold them. 60-80

Labour - Assume they'll likely suffer because if indecision and Corbyn. 160-200

Lib Dems - Probably biggest winner, but do they go from a dozen MP's to being close to a ruling party? Hard to predict. 130-160.

Just on those numbers and SNP, we'd be looking at  second referendum for sure. But I don't know If I am seeing it as a remainer or not.

[kukushkin88]

If we assume a General Election would be called this year, what do you think the outcome would be?

Tories - Biggest loser and will lose seats - End up somewhere between 180-220.

Brexit Party - They'll pick up a few dozen, but lack of domestic agenda will hold them. 60-80

Labour - Assume they'll likely suffer because if indecision and Corbyn. 160-200

Lib Dems - Probably biggest winner, but do they go from a dozen MP's to being close to a ruling party? Hard to predict. 130-160.

Just on those numbers and SNP, we'd be looking at  second referendum for sure. But I don't know If I am seeing it as a remainer or not.

Plugging some %’s in here is always interesting.

https://www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/homepage.html

[RickBFA]

If we assume a General Election would be called this year, what do you think the outcome would be?

Tories - Biggest loser and will lose seats - End up somewhere between 180-220.

Brexit Party - They'll pick up a few dozen, but lack of domestic agenda will hold them. 60-80

Labour - Assume they'll likely suffer because if indecision and Corbyn. 160-200

Lib Dems - Probably biggest winner, but do they go from a dozen MP's to being close to a ruling party? Hard to predict. 130-160.

Just on those numbers and SNP, we'd be looking at  second referendum for sure. But I don't know If I am seeing it as a remainer or not.

Not sure where your seat numbers come from Aaron.

Only way your numbers would be possible is under proportional representation.

[Karabiner]

If we assume a General Election would be called this year, what do you think the outcome would be?

Tories - Biggest loser and will lose seats - End up somewhere between 180-220.

Brexit Party - They'll pick up a few dozen, but lack of domestic agenda will hold them. 60-80

Labour - Assume they'll likely suffer because if indecision and Corbyn. 160-200

Lib Dems - Probably biggest winner, but do they go from a dozen MP's to being close to a ruling party? Hard to predict. 130-160.

Just on those numbers and SNP, we'd be looking at  second referendum for sure. But I don't know If I am seeing it as a remainer or not.

Not sure where your seat numbers come from Aaron.

Only way your numbers would be possible is under proportional representation.

Oh what fun PR would be at this (or any for that matter) juncture.

I think the Brexit party would immediately press the cashout button for half-a-dozen seats let alone 10x that figure.

[BigAdz]

If we assume a General Election would be called this year, what do you think the outcome would be?

Tories - Biggest loser and will lose seats - End up somewhere between 180-220.

Brexit Party - They'll pick up a few dozen, but lack of domestic agenda will hold them. 60-80

Labour - Assume they'll likely suffer because if indecision and Corbyn. 160-200

Lib Dems - Probably biggest winner, but do they go from a dozen MP's to being close to a ruling party? Hard to predict. 130-160.

Just on those numbers and SNP, we'd be looking at  second referendum for sure. But I don't know If I am seeing it as a remainer or not.

of course you are.

Throughout this whole process you have spoken for the nation telling people like me that I didnt know what I was voting for, and even when we told you we knew what the end game was, you didnt listen.

If Boris convinces the public Brexit will happen, I see very little reason for those votes going to a party with just one agenda on their manifesto

[StuartHopkin]

Not sure about later in the year, but GE now would mean a huge increase in Conservative seats in my opinion.

[kukushkin88]

Not sure about later in the year, but GE now would mean a huge increase in Conservative seats in my opinion.

I do agree but it will be dependent on people believing Boris’s intent to leave on Oct 31st deal/no-deal. He can’t actually do it, so it’s high end manipulation of the electorate. The Twitter thread Sheriff linked on the Boris plan was well worth a look.

[kukushkin88]

I think this prediction is pretty close to the mark on what Boris is looking to achieve.

https://twitter.com/syrpis/status/1154286327699005440?s=20

This is the one. Looking more credible by the day.

[BigAdz]

I think this prediction is pretty close to the mark on what Boris is looking to achieve.

https://twitter.com/syrpis/status/1154286327699005440?s=20

This is the one. Looking more credible by the day.

Oh shit, lets all sit up and take notice of some bloke on twitter!  Haven't we spent the last 3 years debunking that sort of stuff?

[kukushkin88]

I think this prediction is pretty close to the mark on what Boris is looking to achieve.

https://twitter.com/syrpis/status/1154286327699005440?s=20

This is the one. Looking more credible by the day.

Oh shit, lets all sit up and take notice of some bloke on twitter!  Haven't we spent the last 3 years debunking that sort of stuff?

In a word, no.

The slightly longer version; extremely intelligent people, with their eyes wide open about how difficult it is to predict the future, trying to predict the future, is absolutely fascinating to me and many others. People who are less interested can just wait and judge him by whether or not he gets it right.

[StuartHopkin]

I think this prediction is pretty close to the mark on what Boris is looking to achieve.

https://twitter.com/syrpis/status/1154286327699005440?s=20

This is the one. Looking more credible by the day.

Oh shit, lets all sit up and take notice of some bloke on twitter!  Haven't we spent the last 3 years debunking that sort of stuff?

In a word, no.

The slightly longer version; extremely intelligent people, with their eyes wide open about how difficult it is to predict the future, trying to predict the future, is absolutely fascinating to me and many others. People who are less interested can just wait and judge him by whether or not he gets it right.

That bloke on twitters prediction seems very viable. Not sure anyone has tried to debunk it?
Whatever anyone says about Boris, I am sure he is playing the game more levels than most people give him credit for.

[kukushkin88]

I think this prediction is pretty close to the mark on what Boris is looking to achieve.

https://twitter.com/syrpis/status/1154286327699005440?s=20

This is the one. Looking more credible by the day.

Oh shit, lets all sit up and take notice of some bloke on twitter!  Haven't we spent the last 3 years debunking that sort of stuff?

In a word, no.

The slightly longer version; extremely intelligent people, with their eyes wide open about how difficult it is to predict the future, trying to predict the future, is absolutely fascinating to me and many others. People who are less interested can just wait and judge him by whether or not he gets it right.

That bloke on twitters prediction seems very viable. Not sure anyone has tried to debunk it?
Whatever anyone says about Boris, I am sure he is playing the game more levels than most people give him credit for.

I guess everyone who is aware of it and still thinks we are “come what may” leaving on 31st Oct has, at least in their own mind, debunked it.

[MANTIS01]

Extremely intelligent people say it’s very difficult to predict the future...

You say read Twitter to predict the future..,

[StuartHopkin]

No one said read twitter to predict the future

Just that the prediction on twitter is quite possibly what Boris is planning